Latin America and Caribbean

The echoes of 2014 have been loud in Brazil’s private banking industry over the past 12 months. A precipitous fall in interest rates – followed by a meteoric rise – has left the market completely the same but also very different.

When the news broke that Argentina was thinking of merging its currency with that of its neighbour, Brazil, my immediate question was: which Argentine peso?

The bank’s chief financial officer says Inter is moving into an expansion phase, following an ambitious and aspirational ‘north star’.

Will 2023 be Brazil’s year – or Mexico’s?

The bank’s new head must withstand political pressure to extend subsidized credit and lower underwriting standards.

A persuasive case can be made for nearshoring, but so far in Latin America there has been little direct evidence that it is happening. In Mexico, things are about to change.

Nearshoring has been seen to drive credit growth among the country’s smaller regional banks.

The region’s advantage is likely to be short-lived and could fade by 2024, according to JPMorgan's private bank head.

Local flows to fixed income and equity redemptions limit ECM liquidity.

Restrictions on redundancies force out larger banks in Mexico from bidding for business.

Uruguay reignites the debate on transition finance with its sovereign sustainability-linked bond.

The bank is focusing on organic growth by acquiring retail clients and launching a private bank.

Proactive risk tightening in 2021 sees surging return on equity as scale brings operational leverage.

The market reaction to the third-quarter results from Brazil’s second-largest private bank has revealed investor sensitivity to banks’ deteriorating asset quality.

Bank’s ESG head urges competitors and regulators to respond more quickly to emissions accounting challenge.

While fintechs have been thriving in Brazil and throughout Latin America, the region’s local stock exchanges have failed to attract IPOs.

Brazil’s agribusiness sector is booming on the back of sky-high commodity prices. The public banks that have long financed the sector now face a wave of new private-sector competitors.

The Brazilian world of digital banks has it all: billionaire unicorns, sub-brands created by the incumbents and completely new disruptors. But one player has been quietly growing under the radar to become the country’s second-largest digital player.

The new administration is expected to be less receptive to bank privatization as the result boosts ‘Lula portfolio’ stocks.

The market for remittances is expected to grow by almost 10% in 2022, driven by diaspora-linked savings.

If Lula wins in Brazil, he is unlikely to focus on the strength of the private-sector banks because fintechs are doing that for him already.

New deal adds two-year payment deferral to existing natural-disaster clause to mitigate impact of a future pandemic.

While the impact on energy is centre stage, the war in Ukraine is also wreaking havoc on soft commodity prices and trade routes. Trade in agricultural commodities is taking a hit. The pool of banks financing these commodities is already dwindling, while the risks for those that remain are growing.

Europe and the US remain the focus, but LatAm and Asia Pacific will also contribute to volatility in 2022.

In its latest funding round, Brazilian-based Creditas proved that valuations for the stronger fintechs can buck the falling trend seen among the large, publicly listed startups.

Banco do Brasil’s outstanding second quarter means that scrutiny will intensify at its domestic rival.

Argentina faces yet another financial crisis and has brought in a new ‘super-minister’ to try to calm the market and placate the IMF. While he will find a sympathetic ear at the fund, not many other international investors are listening anymore.

The US bank has reorganized its Latam wealth management business to focus on faster growing countries, but home bias remains a tough instinct to overcome.

Will higher rates today come at the price of more pain tomorrow?

Campaigning for October’s presidential election has yet to officially start in Brazil, but it is expected to be bitter – and the risks of political fall out for Brazilian banks have already become all too clear.