Emerging Europe

Macroeconomic disruptions and regulatory scrutiny will drive market participants to adopt a practical environmental, social and governance strategy in the year ahead – one that is less about narrative and more about materiality.

The country has one of the world’s best-performing economies with one of the few emerging market currencies to be appreciating against the dollar. It also has large numbers of highly skilled Russians fleeing across the border to avoid conscription. National Bank of Georgia governor Koba Gvenetadze speaks to Euromoney.

NatWest digital SME bank Mettle has broken new ground in its partnership with Polish fintech firm Vodeno.

Societe Generale has exited, and Citi is winding down in retail, but the two biggest remaining Western European players in Russia are also spending a lot of time working out their exposures and operations in the country.

Societe Generale’s choice of Slawomir Krupa to succeed Frédéric Oudéa suggests an approach of riding out the storm and continuing elements of Oudéa’s recent strategy, rather than any radical change.

A new job running Bayern Munich's finances could be more rewarding for HVB CEO Michael Diederich, especially after UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel’s push for more cuts in Germany.

Fossil fuel assets were set to become obsolete in the transition to net zero. But the war in Ukraine is forcing European governments to secure alternative energy sources and driving demand for coal, oil and gas back in the wrong direction. With the global energy transition seemingly pitched against national energy security agendas, banks are trying to navigate a difficult path through the turmoil.

When Margeir Pétursson bought Bank Lviv in 2006, he had much to learn about operating a bank in a country permanently in Russia’s crosshairs. Talking to Euromoney six months after the invasion, he says there is opportunity among the chaos in this key Ukrainian city.

PrivatBank chief executive Gerhard Boesch looks to the future and the bank’s war-delayed privatization.

Oleksandr Pysaruk, chief executive of Raiffeisen Bank Ukraine, describes how contingency planning for war rapidly morphed into the real thing.

Despite the Russian bombs pounding Ukraine, there have been no wartime bank runs, no bank collapses or even the suggestion of a systemic wobble. That is largely thanks to the work of former National Bank of Ukraine governor Valeria Gontareva. She tells Euromoney that the time for further reform to the stricken country’s banking sector is now.

China has in the past felt compelled to accept the terms of IMF programmes in struggling nations without due consideration of its own views.

The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have brutally exposed the fragility of global supply chains.

India’s refusal to take a side over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is typical of a geopolitical approach that aims to keep everyone onside – to India’s advantage. Doing so helps the country to keep inflation in check, the one threat to an exceptionally powerful domestic story that is enticing the banking sector.

Ukraine’s recent debt restructuring agreements with international bondholders give it a better prospect of returning to market once its war with Russia ends. But the IMF – more used to pulling countries out of purely economic crises – faces a policy challenge in assisting a country at war.

In what was supposed to be a banner year for Poland’s banks, free universal mortgage holidays are set to halve profits in the sector in 2022. Many fear the government will extend the policy as elections approach in 2023. Are Poland’s attacks on mortgage interest margins in the name of fighting Russia-fuelled inflation a sign of things to come elsewhere?

With Turkey maintaining its ties with Russia, the risk of secondary sanctions against Turkish banks rises. But even if such sanctions are targeted, the central bank’s policies are already risking a deeper crisis.

If Russia stops the gas this winter, the damage to European banks will be worse than Covid, and Germany will be at the centre of the storm.

China’s support for Russia is part of its strategy to reduce the world’s dependence on the greenback – might it work?

The idea of capping the price of Russian oil and gas exports sounds good in theory, but it might be better to test methods for energy rationing.

The currency’s fairly benign passage through the early months of 2022 is now under threat from a variety of factors, including spiralling inflation, the cost of supporting the currency and even a growing interest in cryptocurrency.

Kyrylo Shevchenko, governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, has been corresponding with Euromoney as war rages in his country. Here he tells us how the central bank has kept the banking system operational and protected the currency in extraordinary circumstances.

SocGen’s deal to sell Russian lender Rosbank back to Vladimir Potanin’s Interros Capital is painful, but could help it to move on from the war in Ukraine.

Without Russia, Raiffeisen will be a different entity – one focused on safer countries in the former Habsburg heartlands. The low home-market profitability that Russia once served to mitigate, however, will be more evident than ever.

A number of commodity currencies have received an unexpected boost from the conflict in Ukraine as Western economies look to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels from Russia more rapidly than previously planned.

A combination of geographical position and commodity strength is working in the country’s favour.

The financial frontline of Russia’s war in Ukraine runs through the offices of overworked sanctions officers at banks everywhere. It is their job to freeze the accounts and assets of sanctioned oligarchs. The pressure is colossal: get it wrong or act too slow, and the impact on a bank’s brand and bottom line will be felt for years to come.

The war in Ukraine has further highlighted the benefits of Banco Santander’s diversification across Europe and the Americas, according to executive chairman Ana Botín. However, its European home market may be a big disadvantage in Citi’s looming auction of Mexican lender Banamex.

ESG has been an intense focus for banks in recent years – not least for their communications teams. But with war in Ukraine, ESG has hit its first real test – and the talking has stopped.

Margin hikes are raising the table stakes in markets from commodities to stock loans. Margins may be a better risk signal than curiously subdued measures like the ViX index of equity volatility.

The Russia-Ukraine war is a sobering reminder for all treasurers that geopolitical risk can escalate rapidly. The importance of forward planning cannot be overstated.

The provider of embedded banking to UK fintechs heads to Europe after its technology achieves speedy implementation of Russian sanctions screening.

When a group of leading banks were unable to source the roubles needed to deliver in settlement of FX swaps, compression trades saved the day. The episode serves to highlight how fragile very large, complex and interconnected financial markets have become.

What practical steps do banks have to take when a client falls foul of a sanction list?

Western governments need to wise up to how smart Putin and his people are at hiding and moving their money.

Despite the current financial turmoil, proponents of de-dollarization still have a mountain to climb. But blockchain and digital currencies could put their goal within eventual reach.

Where do the borders of ESG lie – now and in the future? Investors from the US to China are revisiting these questions and finding thorny and often unpalatable answers, even as they dump Russian assets for ethical reasons. The results are set to shape the financial world’s relationship with sustainability for years to come.

The early days of war in Ukraine saw the price of bitcoin rise. New technology now improves the prospect that wealth stored in crypto may be spent.

As the US takes action to tighten sanctions on Russia by banning energy imports, Europe is trying to pull together a plan to wean itself off Russian gas through greater use of LNG and renewables.

It has been a tough few years for Europe’s banks, but they finally seemed to be firmly on the road to recovery in early 2022. Then Russia invaded Ukraine. Will the financial turmoil that follows derail the sector’s hard-fought-for revival?

The prospect of China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System vying with or supplanting Swift grabbed attention in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But CIPS isn’t ready for the big time. It is too small and underdeveloped, and is a policy vehicle dominated by Beijing for the purpose of globalizing the yuan.

Western governments hope Russian citizens will blame the regime of president Vladimir Putin and seek change. That is a gamble.

In just a few years, the New Eurasian Land Bridge, which conveys rail freight between China and Europe, became a key part of Beijing’s fading Belt and Road Initiative. Thanks to sanctions levied against state operator Russian Railways, that vital trade link threatens to be disrupted – and possibly severed.

With little chance of a swift resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, the effect on FX markets is being felt well beyond the bounds of the former Soviet Union. But not all reactions have been typical for a crisis.

Oligarchs that use shell companies and fake identities may dodge the pain of Russian banks being shut out from Swift, heaping it on innocent people instead.

Several sovereign funds have either pledged to leave Russia or are considering doing so. But how will they get out? Could their exit enrich those that sanctions are intended to penalize?

ING and Intesa Sanpaolo could take bigger hits than Societe Generale in a ‘walk-away’ scenario, according to Autonomous Research.

Jane Fraser can front Citi’s investor day with good news about consumer divestments in Asia. It is hard to see a Russia sale now, though.

Exclusive: The head of Ukraine’s largest bank tells Euromoney that it is refilling ATMs and keeping branches open even as Russian attacks intensify.

The US has named Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and its chief executive in strikingly harsh language as part of its sanctions package. Is RDIF ‘a slush fund for president Vladimir Putin’ or a legitimate vehicle ‘building international relations and supporting constructive ties’?

Decades of work have been put into building Russia’s financial system. Putin’s war is destroying it overnight.

Russians could try to use cryptocurrencies to dodge sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, but a move into the mainstream by crypto exchange heads hungry for fiat currency wealth will complicate evasion tactics.

In the raging crisis between Russia and Ukraine, fixed income bankers picking over a disrupted new issuance market are finding echoes of the start of the coronavirus pandemic. But they warn that the conflict is only worsening inflation concerns – and that central banks are in a bigger bind than ever.

For Putin, the threat of expulsion from Swift carries far less weight than it did in 2014. Russia’s own system for transfer of financial messages can now settle domestic transactions, but the move would still trigger a deep recession in the country.

Russia’s incursion dispels vain hopes of manageable tail risk and heralds a bear market correction.

Energy price volatility driven by war in Ukraine could deliver a windfall to banks such as Goldman Sachs that retain scale in commodity trading. Profits from dealing can also be made without triggering ESG or sanctions-related pain.

A year ago, Sber’s stellar profitability looked to be under threat. This year, it has defied the doubters and has just unveiled record net profit for the first nine months of the year.

At the end of each year, Euromoney takes a close look at the performance of 25 key institutions that we cover. Speaking to senior executives at these firms, we assess what went right and what didn’t, together with what might lie ahead. This year, we have also examined the views of those at the top on two important factors for 2022: their own and others’ asset quality, and the disruptive threat of China. Their observations are discussed in the two features below, followed by our reports for 2021 on the Euromoney 25.

Turkey’s currency continues to flounder, with hardline president Erdoğan apparently determined to prove that the best way to curb inflation is to reduce – rather than increase – interest rates.

Emerging Europe has been slow to join the fight against climate change. Now the region’s biggest banking group is making its voice heard.