Euromoney's recent coverage of the macroeconomic, FX, fixed income and equity market trends in Latin America's largest – and crisis-beset – economy.
$2.5 billion deal makes bank more profitable and a purer ‘Latam’ play; CEO says still huge upside on valuations, and revenue growth to come.
HSBC wants to triple both onshore and offshore revenues, profits and ebitda in Brazil within five years.
Frustration is building quickly in Brazil.
Move adds offshore platform for private clients; bank argues BAC Florida Bank deal adds to its story as the momentum play in the market.
The investment landscape is shifting rapidly as falling returns on sovereign fixed income assets force investors to look elsewhere for returns.
New regulation would see top-12 banks adopt open banking second half of next year; central bank hopes better risk management will lower cost of credit, spur growth.
The 100-day mark of Brazil’s new president, Jair Bolsonaro, has recently passed; no one – not even the government itself – pretended the time had been well spent.
The phony war has been long, but the first real battle has now begun in Brazil’s fintech space.
After so long, private bank clients and even retail investors are no longer happy with the returns from government bonds; instead, they are searching for yield and pushing up the value of risk assets.
Monetary policy is now much more effective in Brazil and it’s having some interesting consequences.
The 50th anniversary issues of Euromoney are forcing journalists to take a broader sweep of the issues we cover than the usual month-by-month perspective.
Argentina is on a precipice, Venezuela has a humanitarian crisis and Brazil is just exiting its worst-ever recession – so far, so Latin America.
After decades of trying, have LatAm’s central bankers finally steadied the ship? Mexico's Agustin Carstens, one of the monetary policy stalwarts of the region, takes stock.
The region’s leading banks produce some of the best numbers in the global industry, and success in retail banking – and a hard-learned approach to risk management – are core; could the growth of digital banking bring a new era of change?
Since Roberto Setubal became chief executive of Itaú Unibanco in 1994, the bank’s growth has been spectacular – but the next stage is harder to target.
Multiple positive factors point to outperformance of Brazil’s banks in EM, but pensions reform risks remain.
They aren’t making headlines – for the right reasons.
With its focus on SMEs, the bank is well set to grow with the Brazilian economy
Itaú is performing well, but faces challenges in its corporate banking unit.
Santander’s Brazilian bank took lots of deserved acclaim when Santander released its global third-quarter results, but keep an eye on Mexico.
Euromoney’s survey experts doubt that Jair Bolsonaro will make a successful stab at the presidency, as his controversial personal style and lack of experience make it difficult to legislate for reforms.
A lower-profile announcement caught Euromoney’s eye after the bluster of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires.
Capital markets could be in for a bumper year in Brazil in 2019, with bankers hoping that a strong economic inheritance and a market-friendly policy agenda will prompt a jolt of activity.
Concerns over president-elect Amlo could see investors rethink their Mexico exposure.
Buyers and sellers need to show some discipline.
Central bank taking further action to lower credit costs through competition; Banco Inter’s post-IPO growth shows digital banking opportunity.
It was always going to be a tough year for debt capital markets in Latin America.
Jair Bolsonaro's election today as Brazil’s next president could well spell more market upside, but the nationalist protectionism that is likely to follow should give investors pause
All eyes will be on the next Brazilian president’s first steps towards a much-needed fiscal adjustment.
Brazil’s banks are now an election issue.
Credit scoring changes could be the key to breaking Brazil’s interest-rate burden.
Regulatory changes to Brazil’s positive credit bureau open way for fintech start-up; better data predicted to lead to lower cost credit and GDP growth.
Restricting Itaú’s purchase of XP is good for competition.
The industry needs a change in the macroeconomic environment.
Investment bank steps in as BNDES stops crowding out; an important first in local-denominated financing of large project puts down marker.
Bracher admits “severe pressure” to reduce spreads; credit portfolios tilting to SME and consumer segments.
International investors blame political uncertainty; locals view sell-off as weakening carry-trade dynamics.
Have the vision.
Recent conversations with bankers and economists in Brazil have been confusing – sometimes it is hard to believe that both groups are talking about the same country.
The blueprint for BNDES is for a development bank that partners with the private sector to facilitate more socially beneficial projects while using less capital.
Although the borrower is evidently making progress, investors must be prepared for setbacks given the enormous economic and political challenges still to overcome.
'Abundant' potential liquidity from international insurance companies and pension funds; with drop in rates, local capital markets financing is now cheaper than BNDES.
Bankers and investors are increasingly confident that the country’s next president will adopt a programme of fiscal reforms, even though no leading candidates are standing on that platform.
The outlook for both Credit Suisse and Brazil is better than it has been in years, and CEO José Olympio Pereira has his eyes firmly focused on the opportunities coming his way.
Low levels of credit penetration provide huge growth opportunity; other positive factors include sector consolidation and regulatory liberalization.
Pension reform in Brazil is going nowhere.
NYSE too strong a lure for tech companies; Latin America needs ‘IPO catch-up’.
Sharp reduction in Selic boosted 2017 profitability but is a challenge in 2018; ‘soft’ recovery in credit demand might not offset lower margins.
The political opponents of former president Lula look to have ruled him out of the next election, but this risks an even more volatile outcome.
M4 money supply growth could fuel inflation more than higher interest rates lower it, causing a predicament for central bank policy should inflation spike.
Brazilian Development Bank wants to finance more projects with a lower level of disbursements; local capital markets seen as better bet than banks to help BNDES step back.
Euromoney's recent coverage of the macroeconomic, FX, fixed income and equity market trends in Latin America's largest – and crisis-beset – economy.
Newly acquisitive Itaú's earnings have been remarkably resilient
Bigger footprint should drive revenues as well as earnings
The region’s political highlight of 2017 went well.
Lack of regional liquidity cited as reason for NY IPO listings; strong pipeline in Brazil being dominated by more traditional companies.
While growth forecasts for Brazil for 2018 are turning optimistic, a few – a surprisingly small number in fact – are warning about a growing downside risk for next year: a negative hit from a persistent drought.
Macro-economic recovery and falling Selic paint positive outlook; credit growth frustrating the rosy outlook.
Just imagine if it all goes right in Brazil.
A change in the interest rate environment will require a fundamental shift in mind-set from the clients of Brazil’s private banks – are they ready for it and where should they look for returns?
It’s obvious that Brazil’s government needs to reform pensions and get hold of social spending – easy to say, not so easy to do.
GDP and credit growth should offset lower NII; greater efficiencies also sought to preserve strong results.
Bank says rationalization of retail branch networks will boost growth; head of its digital platform hints at wider retail banking services.
It seems counterintuitive, but the endless cycle of political turmoil in Brazil might be insulating the country from a crisis that is warranted by its perilous fiscal situation.
Hopes for full privatization dashed; investors might still see growth opportunity.
Global finance needs to believe in the progress it can drive to meet environmental challenges.
Investors have misconceptions about the scale of its retrenchment; growth and asset quality recovery likely to increase through 2018.
New banking law looks set to require BBVA to add capital; deal would transform Scotiabank in key Pacific Alliance market.
The worst might be over, yet there are still notable concerns surrounding one of the world’s largest emerging markets.
Pipeline of ECM deals grows as sentiment improves; government said to be planning ‘ambitious’ privatization programme.
State bank BNDES’ benchmark rate set to be replaced; implicit subsidies have been a significant fiscal drain
Short-term factors driving strong improvements in earnings and ROE; revenues the issue next year as credit demand remains weak.
Itaú BBA has long been a top investment bank in Brazil.
It is no understatement to say that the country is uncharted territory.
Carrefour subsidiary shows demand for Brazilian IPO; carry trade boosting equity as well as bond performance in Latin America.
Bank’s IB division up to third in rankings in first half of 2017; IB head Leao says there is “still a lot more to come”.
Reduction of size and cost of subsidized credit key policy reform; negative impact of earmarked credit highlighted by World Bank report.
Sometimes we can’t see the trees for looking at the woods.
Renegotiated and restructured debt lengthening NPL cycle; Bradesco and Santander to benefit most from better cost of risk.
Brazil office opened in 2014 and has won several prestigious mandates; firm argues changes to bankruptcy code would boost M&A.
What gated communities can teach us about gaming the system.
The latest political scandal in Brazil spooked the markets, but didn’t bring them down.
The country’s biggest banks are working on the big data challenge.
Swiss bank buys Brazil’s biggest multi-family office; wealth management industry continues to grow fast despite economic turbulence.
Bernardo Parnes opens IB and wealth management boutique; consultancy aims to differentiate by seniority of advisers.
Miranda, head of BBI, says single country banks at a disadvantage; global trend to universal banks helping drive national and regional growth.
Sharp crash in bank shares was followed by marked recovery; risk of political stagnation could lead to larger, longer-term falls in sector.
Itaú buys XP to protect its market share; staggered deal offers XP a certain future away from IPO risks.
Private banks ahead of the curve in terms of provisioning; Banco do Brasil returns to double-digit ROE.
Credit Suisse switches to outperform rating; Santander expected to quickly close the profitability gap with its peers.
Airline IPO finally takes off on fourth attempt; optimism immediately tempered by renewed political risk.
The headline news in Brazil is always dramatic, often shocking, but never dull.
Recent IFC deal for Banco Daycoval outperformed initial expectations; IFC sees changing role in Brazil as interest rates fall.
Credit Suisse books Brazilian profits and switches to Malaysia; crowded trade hints at heated valuations.
As CEO Caffarelli targets private-sector levels of profitability, Brazil’s state-banking behemoth is aiming to improve capital and benefit from a better economy.
The new president of Brazil’s central bank has identified the large interest rate spread applied by banks on top of the base rate as an obstacle to economic growth.
Santander Brasil lost out to rivals Itaú and Bradesco as other foreign banks put their businesses on the block.
The political class is tainted with corruption.
High cost of credit in the ‘free market’ segments seen as economic impediment; president of BCB committed to lower costs and greater competition.
When Brazilian federal police knocked on the door of André Esteves’ Rio de Janeiro home on the morning of November 25, 2015, they were not only arresting one of the country’s most prominent bankers, they were also delivering a hammer blow to his bank, BTG Pactual.
How many firms would survive the detention of the founder, dominant partner and largest shareholder? There is a lesson for others in that.
The hoped-for flows onshore from last year’s amnesty on offshore wealth have failed to materialise, so far.
Amnesty has been a big fiscal bonus for government in 2016; large inflows have been counterintuitively a net-negative for local AUM.
Regulatory reforms negative for non-bank financials; banks’ NPLs could get a boost through reform of FGTS.
BTG Pactual launches online-only investment platform; Banco do Brasil shedding jobs as it pushes digital.
New management aims to rebuild core equity; attractive valuation if it avoids equity issuance.
Revenues still depressed by poor ECM; DCM and M&A resilient but at low levels.
Brazil’s economy leads the world in high interest rates.
Sale of JV stake will boost capital ratios but adds strategic uncertainty, while the acquisition further strengthens Brazil’s largest private bank.
Exchange already ‘toppish’, valuations suggest; Bovespa argues internationalisation adds differentiation.
Citi exit increases concentration; lack of competition ‘causing economic damage’.
Brazil’s central bank chief has missed a great opportunity to address its uncompetitive banking sector.
New regulation in the pipeline to cover fintech companies; large banks wary of cannibalisation of revenues.
Since demutualization, Brazil’s stock exchange, the BM&F Bovespa, has become hugely profitable and powerful but the majority of its brokers are struggling for survival.
A cyclical recovery is under way yet huge fiscal problems remain, and whether progress is sustained depends on structural reforms, risk experts caution.
Best global performers so far this year; Rally technical; fundamentals remain poor.
The downturn in Brazil does not faze Ricardo Lacerda, founding partner of local investment bank BR Partners.
Brazil might develop a more mutually beneficial equities market, but history suggests it won’t.
Petrobras opens way for strong Brazilian pipeline; Argentina sovereign praised for helping deal flow.
Political risk no longer driving equity performance; privatizations on investors radar.
Markets rally on Rousseff’s woes; corporations pressure politicians.
Argentina and Brazil are heading in opposite directions.
Every cloud has a silver lining, and private equity firms are pretty good at finding them.
Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year.
Cheapest access to dollars: politics helps mask economic realities.
Shores up confidence; retains minority Swiss bank stake.
International banks are picking up the suitcase banking habit in Latin America again.
What’s a wealthy Brazilian to do faced with economic and political turmoil, scandal at one of the country’s leading private banks, and a big change to the tax law? Turn to the undisputed market leader in wealth management, it seems.
The Central Bank of Brazil is facing a credibility struggle, making it even harder for investors to predict when country’s turnaround will come.
Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.
International investors will swiftly return to Latin America if they see clear evidence of economic progress.
Brazil or Argentina need to spark revival; Latin America investment banking’s worst year since 2009.
Esteves’ exit fails to slow outflows; oil and gas exposure in spotlight.
With a struggling economy, Brazil will continue to rely heavily on its state development bank to provide long-term finance for crucial infrastructure projects, unless private-sector alternatives can be found.
Toxic outlook for economy and NPLs; impact of higher NIM sparks debate.
Central bankers in Latin America stress policy limits; macro-prudential tools out of favour.
Guarantees to aid private sector flows; BNDES scaling back but still dominant player.
Commodity exports overvalued the real; manufacturing went 'down the drain'.
China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015.
IRB Brasil Re delays IPO pricing; debt markets down 52% on year.
Investment banking fees in LatAm are on the way down and international banks face a tricky choice of whether to stick or twist.
The country’s economy is going through tough times, putting a greater onus on private bankers to look after their clients’ investments.
The Brazilian government is pinning its hopes on infrastructure finance to boost GDP growth and help woeful productivity rates.
Brazil deal lifts Bradesco; UK bank fights to retain Mexico.
It is time for Brazil’s central bank to encourage some competition and shake up the cosy world of its domestic institutions.
Battle-ready long-term investors could pick up equity and debt on the cheap, according to research, as S&P finally cuts Brazil to junk after Euromoney Country Risk rankings.
DCM issuance down by 40%; locals and internationals suffer.
Plans to involve the capital markets seem to be attracting the wrong investor – one who might not understand the risks.
Government seeks private investors; buyers ‘not fully aware’ of the risks.
Brazil’s economy must absorb a lot more pain before it starts to grow again.
Demand rising, busy second half expected; Par Corretora holds key to Brazil return.
New rules to boost risk-weighted assets at G-Sibs are ramping up the pressure on those banks to change their business model, and become less global.
Global firms feel pinch; Chinese banks set to enter?
‘Deal surge’ predicted; Goldman Sachs urges caution.
Falling real creates value; upturn predicted for 2016.
With equity and now debt funding getting scarcer in public markets, Latin American corporates must think of other options.
Tarpon takes control of Abril for R$1.3 billion; new regulation might limit numbers of higher students.
Needs credibility before returning; wants to avoid punitive pricing.
Brazil has all the ingredients for successful local markets, but it keeps failing to deliver.
The troubles at Petrobras have hurt all of Brazil’s borrowers but bankers in the country think the worst is now over and that the bad news has been priced in.
Brazilian bank Bradesco opens its London office on February 9.
The private banking industry in Latin America had a difficult 12 months as wealth creation slowed throughout the region.
Sovereign reopens market; Petrobras saga stymies Brazil.
Rationing increasingly possible; Stagnant economy slowed consumption
Corruption scandal stymies bond issues; Lack of supply may set stage for others
BRICs hit the economic wall
Brazil has a long and painful struggle ahead to revive its economy.
Brazil’s banking industry exclaimed loudly that another four years of Dilma Rousseff would be a disaster for the country.
Strong results across the sector; banking system ‘a source of strength’.
Rising rates deter equity investors; Brazil no longer driving volumes.
The decline of the Brazilian real to a nine-year low this week seemed to mark a nadir for a currency buffeted by economic and political concerns.
Investors should take note: LatAm’s big two have been offering contrasting portfolio options for some time.
Vital reforms unlikely; next president will inherit inflation headache.
Brazil’s business community wants ‘anyone but Dilma’ as its next president.
Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF.
It has become normal in Brazil for private-sector banks to express frustration with the scale and cost of BNDES’ presence in financing corporate Brazil.
Dilma Rousseff has told Brazil’s public banks to boost the country’s flagging consumption until the elections with double-digit loan growth.
Private banking clients in Brazil face challenging times, bankers concede.
Mexico’s energy reforms should kick-start growth in its lacklustre economy while Brazil appears to have no strategic planning in place.
Election campaign delays rationing; ‘pray for rain’ say analysts.
Asset allocation hangs on election result; closing the instrument is good news for private banks.
The Brazilian real has been rising in recent weeks on hopes opposition candidate Marina Silva will beat president Dilma Rousseff in a run-off election in October.
High relative rates draw investors; elections weigh on rally.
Deal sells at par; incentive to call after five years.
Louis Dreyfus to repurchase 90% of deal; firm commitment IPOs under question.
Short-term gains for some energy firms and industrials; longer-term energy strategy review needed.
Will make loan transfers less attractive for banks; technology a main driver of competition.
A lack of rain to fill the dams that power Brazil is becoming a potential crisis.
Markets responded positively to the downgrade of Brazil by Standard & Poor’s.
The fundamental dislocation of the region’s equity markets may actually drive DCM issuance in the coming year as a much-stalled pipeline of equity deals turns to M&A in frustration – and DCM deals will be printed to finance this predicted wave.
The data is misleading, say analysts; the region’s markets are fundamentally fine.
Post-election policies still hard to predict; fiscal discipline key to investments.
Itaú strengthens position outside Brazil; equity lull a good time for hiring, says HSBC.
Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have more in common than macroeconomic numbers.