January 2016
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LATEST ARTICLES
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“If I stop my so-called bulimic development, in five years I would have no debts…then what? That would be stupid because I would not have grown for five years”
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It was the weakest year for global trade since the financial crisis. Trade-finance margins and volumes fell in 2015, while bank competition and industry costs jumped. Euromoney surveys the fallout.
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The fintech bubble is inflating rapidly in Asia, with near hysteria over how it will improve everything from return on equity to erectile dysfunction.
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Despite signing up to the Santiago Principles, most sovereign wealth funds don’t observe them, nor do they have to. Isn’t it time the markets lost patience with their ‘I signed, therefore I am transparent’ approach?
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Investment-banking volumes in emerging Europe have fallen to their lowest levels for more than a decade. Some international banks are withdrawing capacity, while there is little sign of a pick up in the capital markets. So why are some of the universal banks still making positive noises?
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VTB Capital cemented its position as Moscow’s leading investment bank last year. With cross-border deals for Chinese and Indian clients it is becoming more than just the adviser of choice for Russian corporates. But will the firm’s ambitions get the better of it?
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International investors will swiftly return to Latin America if they see clear evidence of economic progress.
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The South African president’s recent erratic changes in the ministry of finance highlight his flailing leadership.
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It shows how far expectations have fallen for CEE that its most exciting prospect is now Romania.
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Leading green bond issuers are working together to find a solution to one of the problems holding back the growth of the market – how to report back to fund managers on the environmental impact of their investments. The determination to find a solution on both sides is clear. The path to finding that solution remains elusive.
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Islamic banks in the GCC may have two advantages over their conventional counterparts at a time of weak liquidity: loyal retail money and the ability to tap two investor markets
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Often overlooked and taken for granted, the repo market is crucial to the flow of cash and collateral through all other financial markets, so talk of a coming meltdown is troubling.
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Issuer awareness of what investors want is key to the development of impact reporting.
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The liquidity mismatch that has built up in sub-investment grade credit meant it was only a matter of time before the market blinked
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The financial woes at APP in 2001, which led to its default and subsequent debt restructuring, opened up a can of worms within the wider group.
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Default? What default? Asia Pulp & Paper, Sinar Mas and the Widjaja family, once pariahs of the international financial markets, have bounced back with a vengeance. Are the memories of the banks financing them too short? Or are they backing a group that can deliver on both its repurposed business and environmental credentials?
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After near extinction in 2011, Ireland’s banks are well on their way back to profitability and growth. But, as the nation’s debt levels continue to fall, can the banks prosper in a credit-less recovery?
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The scale of the banking crisis in Ireland has made those banks’ leaders into national figures. There is often a theatrical element to Irish public life and the bank CEOs are convincing actors.
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Patrick Drahi has taken advantage of low-cost debt to make Altice one of the world’s most acquisitive media conglomerates. Bankers who have benefited from its spending spree say Altice has shown what is possible in the post-crisis markets. But investors are increasingly worried about the company’s leverage levels and complicated debt structure. Can Drahi see his vision through?
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American private equity sees sub-Saharan Africa as an opportunity in an era of slow growth, but have been slow to tap in to the region’s long-term potential.
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Let’s hope a new year heralds a decline in cynicism and negativity. Bank communications need to stay realistic, but would it hurt to accentuate the positive?
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Secondary buyout trumps IPO; Gulf markets need more liquidity.
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Serbia’s ex-finance minister leads charge; sovereign restructurings ‘can open doors’.
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Brazil or Argentina need to spark revival; Latin America investment banking’s worst year since 2009.
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Esteves’ exit fails to slow outflows; oil and gas exposure in spotlight.
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Arrests, disappearances and suicides rock industry; investor unease at hard-nosed Beijing.
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Private/public valuations diverge; investors becoming ‘more rational’.
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Spanish infrastructure credits trade down; money continues to flow.
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Flight to AT1 from high yield expected; tier 2 needed to mitigate ALAC impact.
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Overtakes rival with new valuation; dismisses state meddling, commodities concerns.
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Cooperatives cut off last regional arm; Landesbanken reluctant to follow.
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JPMorgan teams up with On Deck Capital; SoFi lends $4.5 billion in 2015.
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As European banks return to the stock exchange, don’t expect much growth in balance sheet or geography.
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The European Central Bank meeting in December provided a reminder that it is tough to make predictions – especially about the future. Goldman Sachs’s chief currency strategist Robin Brooks was forced to admit that he had dropped his crystal ball on his foot in predicting euro parity to the dollar by year-end and revised his forecasts for 2016 before 2015 was out. Undeterred, Euromoney’s Jon Macaskill makes his own predictions for the coming year in investment banking.
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A Euromoney survey of economists and strategists paints a bleak picture of the emerging markets in 2016. They are now seen as a risk to global growth just when the developed markets start a modest recovery. On the positive side respondents reckon EMs will comfortably absorb the impact of US rate hikes and think another eurozone debt crisis is unlikely.
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The global savings glut will continue to buoy markets, for now. But all sins come at a price.
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What are Gupta, McKay and Blankfein doing to get their troops onside where the likes of Stumpf, Moynihan and Gulliver lag behind? And at what point does a poor approval rate from your employees spell danger?
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The euro is on course for parity with the dollar in 2016.
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Third Avenue, Stone Lion halt redemptions; net outflows for 2015 more than $10 billion.
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The US firm's embarrassing re-rightsizing is not a knee-jerk reaction: it shows just how bad FICC revenues are likely to be in the longer term. Will other banks follow suit?
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Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has left a toxic legacy for newly elected president Mauricio Macri. Asset prices were buoyed by his election victory the mid-term outlook for the Argentine economy is brimming with potential, but he must get through the next six months unscathed and consolidate a weak political base.
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Low levels of credit offer opportunity; short-term funding presents operational risks.