After years of easy Eurobond access and ramped-up Chinese lending, developing economies are now caught between rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions, making debt restructurings more numerous and more complicated. Despite some progress in inter-creditor talks, many debtor nations face an uncertain financial future.

China is having a shocker of a year. Growth has stalled, deflation is back and global firms are moving production elsewhere as they de-risk from China to boost supply-chain resiliency. FDI is down sharply and exports are sinking. Just as Brexit reshaped the UK’s relationship with the world, has Covid done the same for China?

Outbound Chinese M&A deal-flow has slowed to a crawl even as inbound activity remains steady. So focus in the region is moving elsewhere: to rising India, steady-and-lucrative Australia and even Japan, where once-bloated conglomerates are streamlining portfolios under intense pressure from activist shareholders.

Analysts are looking beyond China for clues as to where the main Asian currencies will go over the remainder of 2023 as they try to second-guess Japan’s monetary policy plans.

How on earth, in this environment, did the bank deliver one of its best-ever quarters in Asia?

The chair of Ping An Asset Management has called again for the break-up of HSBC and spin off of its Asia assets. His argument is a strong and valid one; his problem is that none of the bank’s other main shareholders seems to care.

It has been over a decade and a half since a Chinese financial institution bought or invested in a Western counterpart. Beijing sees the West’s banking system as incomprehensibly chaotic and messy, and its own – albeit flawed – as a bastion of stability.

The whereabouts of investment banker Bao Fan are unknown just when China wants to attract foreign talent and capital, not deter it.

The desire among political and financial leaders in Beijing to climb the value chain in development finance is clear. But the challenges now facing a giant Chinese state-run infrastructure contractor at Nigeria’s new deep-water port in Lekki show that this is easier said than done.

Last year, a connected cluster of village banks in the central province of Henan suffered one of China’s worst financial scandals in years. Beijing’s reaction: to create a new state bank that will take stakes in rural financial and credit institutions with the aim of spotting and weeding out corruption and improving financial governance.

The southern Chinese city has set out ambitious plans to become one of the world’s top wealth-management centres. With one of China’s largest onshore pools of private wealth, there is everything to play for.

Can the early volumes be sustained through the year?

It’s the time of year for feng shui market predictions.

The Greater China CEO represents a loss of seniority, experience and gravitas. And his is not the only exit from the Swiss bank’s Asia operations.

Beijing recently ordered its state banks, including ICBC and Bank of China, to plough $162 billion worth of fresh credit into the country’s troubled property sector. In doing so, they look not proactive but panicky. A negative hit on lenders’ profits is inevitable.

China is stuck. It has spent three years trying to keep Covid at bay, but now irate citizens have spilled onto the streets, questioning the competency of president Xi Jinping, and calling for an end to restrictions – just as transmission rates spike.

China Investment Corporation’s annual reviews are always out of date, but they provide clues to what is happening now.

HSBC’s outgoing CFO, Ewen Stevenson, has mounted a robust case for the bank’s cost performance in an intriguing call with analysts that also featured an appearance by his replacement, Georges Elhedery. As he prepares to leave the bank, Stevenson defended his legacy by taking on the firm’s arch-critic, Ping An.

Last week’s financial summit aimed to show investors Hong Kong is open for business. While well attended, it also served as a reminder of how closed off the financial hub has become and how much of its lustre has been lost.

Market experts fear that continued inflation and poor growth mean that many currencies are vulnerable to the pressure that the UK has seen recently.

China, the US, Australia and Japan are all conducting a curious courtship with Pacific nations, hoping to build trade relationships, climate resilience and security agreements.

In February, HSBC’s head of global private banking China, Jackie Mau, set out ambitious plans for the mainland. He’s proving as good as his word: the UK lender has opened two new, full-service wealth management offices in Hangzhou and Chengdu, with more to follow in 2023 and 2024.

Six seemingly random numbers, when threaded together, demonstrate that some kind of negative watershed event may not be too far off in China.

China’s property sector is in freefall and Covid lockdowns are throttling growth as bad loans pile up at the banks. As president Xi Jinping prepares for an unprecedented third term, a deluge of crises threatens to destroy the country's four-decade economic miracle.

As European and Chinese banks scale back in Africa to cut costs and redeploy capital to core markets, Middle East lenders are happily jumping in to fill the gap, buying assets and putting more boots on the ground as bilateral trade between the regions increases.

China has in the past felt compelled to accept the terms of IMF programmes in struggling nations without due consideration of its own views.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is as controversial now as it was a decade ago. Yet its legacy endures. Even as Beijing cuts funding to debt-saddled BRI states, the West is emulating Xi Jinping’s flagship development plan. The BRI is not dead but is quietly mutating into something much bigger and – whisper it quietly – perhaps better.

Chinese investors are buying bonds issued by local government financing vehicles as fast as they’re printed – due to a cratered property sector, a lack of other buying options and a perception it’s a safe asset class. But analysts warn LGFV defaults are imminent and could result in a wave of credit events.

China’s decision to let US regulators audit its New York-listed corporates is a shock. It’s a U-turn, a climbdown and a sign, more than anything, of China’s enduring financial frailty.

HSBC’s interim result shows that banks are drawing a line under pandemic-related provisions, while simultaneously setting aside new ones for the disease’s economic cure. All banks must make this transition, but HSBC has other things to worry about besides: a campaign from China’s Ping An to split the bank in half.