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LATEST ARTICLES
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A boutique broker renowned for the accuracy of its currency forecasts has warned that a no-deal Brexit could see the pound fall to parity with the euro by the middle of next year.
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Some of the proffered solutions to the difficulties of attracting real money into the cryptocurrency market continue to be of the ‘which came first’ variety, such as the hope that increased liquidity from market maturity will lead to reduced volatility.
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As few as eight significant multi-dealer platforms could remain standing after further rounds of consolidation sweep the sector, predicts a new report.
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FX data providers are surprisingly coy when it comes to discussing the extent to which they have shaken up a market that has been described as ripe for disruption.
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The prime brokerage market will be hoping for a boost from the imminent launch of BNY Mellon’s new service, which will represent a reversal of the trend for larger banks to leave the space.
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Pragma has attempted to provide some clarity to the little-understood phenomenon of flash crashes by providing a definition of the term for the first time, which it hopes will encourage further study of these market dislocations.
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Banks consistently offer more competitive prices in spot FX than their ECN counterparts — for all but a few minutes per day — according to research conducted by Pragma, a provider of algorithmic trading technology.
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The regulatory probe into allegations that traders have colluded to manipulate the $5.3-trillion-a-day foreign exchange market has some way to run, but some investors are pre-empting the results with technologies they say will help them reduce their reliance on industry benchmarks.
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The People’s Bank of China moved this week to lift a $1 billion cap on a sovereign-level onshore investment window. But will central banks and sovereign wealth funds take the bait?
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The resilience of the euro after last week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting reflect concerns that other main central banks could pursue further easing measures, but negative rates and weak demand for eurozone assets do not bode well for the single currency.
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The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) division of swap dealer and intermediary oversight has exempted swap dealers and leading swap participants from the requirement to disclose pre-trade mid-market marks to counterparties in certain FX transactions.
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The flow of FX trades processed through Thomson Reuters’ market-leading service continued to decline in November after a tepid October.
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Average daily volumes (ADVs) on EBS, Icap’s electronic FX trading platform, rose in November after hitting an all-time record low in October.
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The shock announcement that Mark Carney, Bank of Canada (BoC) governor, is set to take the helm of the Bank of England (BoE) has boosted the pound, but don’t forget the Canadian dollar.
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The US Treasury decision to exempt FX swaps and forwards from regulation under the Dodd-Frank Act should not be a surprise to anyone participating in the FX markets.
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Attempting to hold on to a long USDJPY position has been frustrating in recent months, as Japan’s trade position has deteriorated and tensions with China have escalated, but the time could finally be ripe for a push higher.
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Tradable has launched a new FX platform it believes will revolutionize the world of online retail trading.
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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) could be in for a challenging end to the year as the pressure on the floor in EURCHF intensifies, warns UBS.
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Here we go again, lets jump on the beat up high frequency trading band wagon.
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With volatility in the FX market hitting its lowest level since before the start of the financial crisis, many are looking for the trigger that will push currencies out of the tight ranges that have held in recent months.
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Reserve data from Australia has sparked speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is leaning against strength in the AUD, but the notion that it will follow Switzerland and adopt a more aggressive approach to its currency’s resilience is wide of the mark.
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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened for the first time in three years to keep the HKD in its trading band against the dollar, a move that should lend further support to the euro but could be the start of the unravelling of the city’s currency regime.
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Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has delivered an upbeat assessment of the eurozone crisis, arguing the market has failed to fully appreciate the significance of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) pledge to do whatever it takes to save the euro.
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Once upon a time, the FX markets were easier to trade. Currencies traded on their macroeconomic fundamentals, unimpeded by politics, and unconventional monetary policy. The carry trade was king.
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There has been tough talk from Brazil after the Federal Reserve’s decision to implement QE3, but speculation of a re-emergence of global currency wars is wide of the mark.
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The eurozone debt crisis is going to escalate once the US elections are out of the way, argues leading Russian investment bank VTB.
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EM reserve managers are starting to accumulate funds on a scale not seen for more than a year – a development that is likely to keep FX volatility down at its current low level and encourage investors into carry trades.
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One year on from the introduction of the floor in EURCHF, the odds may be beginning to turn in the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) favour, with speculation emerging that the central bank could lift the minimum price level.
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China’s attempts to internationalize the renminbi have suffered a setback amid expectations that the currency will fall in value.
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Decreasing demand for European currencies that lie outside of the eurozone suggests that investors have increased faith that policymakers within the currency union can resolve the region’s debt problems.
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JPMorgan has warned that the FX market is pricing in an environment that leaves no margin for error on data or policy during the next two months.
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Relatively stable FX markets during the current summer lull have pushed volatility down to its lowest level of the year.
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For those hoping that the holiday period will usher in some calm on the world’s currency markets, there is likely to be disappointment.
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The Swiss National Bank further diversified its reserve holdings in the second quarter as it increased holdings in “other” currencies by a third as at the end of June, figures released by the central bank today showed.
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Deutsche Bank has launched the next generation of its Autobahn – the FX platform that revolutionized electronic trading in the past decade – which it says will redefine the way trading is conducted with its clients.
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Technical analysts at Commerzbank – voted number one for banks in this year’s Euromoney FX Survey – see no respite for the single currency, as the EUR plunges to a two-year low against the USD.
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There is no shortage of recommendations to sell the EUR after last week’s decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its deposit rate to zero, but where will buyers come in?
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The renminbi is likely to weaken as Chinese corporates pay back their offshore foreign-currency liabilities.
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If you are looking for the near-term direction of the euro, you are better off asking a German toolmaker than a Mayfair hedge fund manager.
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Flow data from UBS shows investors last week were the heaviest sellers of euro-denominated equities since July 2008, as concerns over the currency block escalated.
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For those wondering why the prospect of further monetary easing is not weighing more heavily on the pound, there is a relatively simple explanation.
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New-found government resolve in Brazil to avoid additional BRL weakness has materially improved the currency’s outlook, according to a strategist at ING.
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Western Europe is the key battle ground in the quest for supremacy in the global FX markets, asserts Jeff Feig, Citi’s global head of G10 FX.
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The latest CFTC data showed EUR short positioning was at record levels, but proprietary positioning trackers of leading FX banks tell a different story.
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The prospect of a Greek exit from the euro has prompted hedge funds to make a fresh assault on the Swiss National Bank’s resolve in maintaining its SFr1.20 floor in EURCHF.
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The chance of a Greek exit from the euro is on the rise, and so the question for investors has turned from why is the single currency so strong, to how low can it trade and how fast.
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Currency speculators on the CME turned to the dollar, yen and sterling, as concerns over Greece’s fiscal crisis and worries over global growth pushed investors toward safety.
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Natixis has hired a former UniCredit FX salesman to cover sales to hedge funds and other financial institutions.
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A €700 billion pool of maturing eurozone bank debt might be removed as a pillar of support for the euro if investors migrate into US credit markets.
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FX momentum strategies can yield “surprisingly” high excess returns, according to a new study due to be published in the Journal of Financial Economics, which adds more weight to the view that FX is an asset class in its own right.
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The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) disposal of euros in the first quarter suggests it might abandon its attempts to rein in the franc, despite protestations to the contrary.
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Asian FX reserve managers are making it hard for EURUSD to break out of its tight trading range as they seek to improve the low returns on their FX portfolios by selling options.
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The Bank of England’s (BoE) quantitative easing cycle is likely to have finished, say economists at Barclays and RBS, and a more hawkish BoE stance will provide support for the pound, despite GDP estimates thrusting the UK back into recession.
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Australian retail FX is booming, thanks to a healthy domestic market, the access it provides to fast-growing Asia and a friendly regulatory environment.
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Benign inflation data has weighed on the AUD and is likely to kick-start the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing cycle when it meets next month. However, the government’s “stealth war” against the currency could be of greater importance.
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Barclays predicts a set of policy initiatives by the Chinese authorities to liberalize the movement and trading of the renminbi, heralding full liberalization of the country’s capital account by 2015, according to Asiamoney.
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The euro is the most undervalued G10 currency on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, according to Morgan Stanley.
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The confusion over the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy stance has heightened, as the central bank flip-flops between hawkish and dovish rhetoric.
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Troy Rohrbaugh, JPMorgan’s global head of FX, believes he might be in a more advantageous position than some of his competitors.
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If HSBC were to operate as a fully integrated global FX business, just how much more profitable could it be for the bank?
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The response in the FX market to the more upbeat tone from the Federal Reserve points to the sea-change that has seen fundamentals take over as the driving force behind moves in the dollar.
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When you are the world’s biggest FX bank, running the most complex derivatives book in the market, a year such as 2011 presents the following challenge: offering constant liquidity in all products in all market conditions while avoiding all of the minefields in its path.
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In 1990, Lloyds Bank was ranked seventh in the Euromoney FX poll, in what was essentially then a survey of corporates. The proceeding years haven’t been all that kind to Lloyds in FX, and by 2008 the bank had fallen outside the top 50.
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Since 2008, Barclays Capital has narrowed the margin on the market leader Deutsche Bank in the Euromoney FX survey from 12.58% to 4.89%. On average, the gap has narrowed 2.56% each year. Can it beat the average this year and topple Deutsche?
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Anil Prasad, Citi’s global head of FX and local markets, believes he is close to successfully executing his three-year plan: to take his FX division back to the top of the Euromoney FX league table.
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Despite 2011 being a poor year for the hedge fund community, Morgan Stanley’s co-heads of FX Stephen Glynn and Senad Prusac are upbeat about their division’s performance during the past 12 months.
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HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, said FX revenues rose above $3 billion for the first time since 2008, as client activity outside of Europe grew and the bank became more effective at managing FX risk. The bank said in its annual report that market volatility during 2011, caused by geopolitical tensions, eurozone concerns and interventions by central banks, resulted in an improved trading environment for foreign exchange compared with 2010.
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Greece finally received a second bailout package on Tuesday, but for those concerned that Athens could still slide into a disorderly default, opportunities abound in the options market.
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UniCredit is a misunderstood European banking powerhouse, says Bernd Bröker, the recently instated global head of G10 FX. He puts that down to its complex merger history that is sometimes difficult for outsiders to understand and piece together.
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BNP Paribas thinks it has an image problem. But Adrian Boehler, less than two-months into his tenure as global head of institutional sales at the French bank, says he likes what he sees.
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legislators last week, the FX industry needs to turn some of its attention away from the clearing of options and NDFs to the margining of non-cleared forwards and swaps.
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While many in the market are busy revising their forecast for the AUD higher, HSBC is warning that the currency is vulnerable to the rising importance of CNH, the offshore renminbi.
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Daily foreign exchange turnover averaged $1,972 billion in the UK during October 2011, 3% lower than in April 2011, though 17% higher than a year earlier, according to the Bank of England’s semi-annual turnover survey for the Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee.
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The migration from voice trading to electronic execution in the foreign exchange markets continues to build momentum. And the results of EuromoneyFXNews e-trading survey show that buy-side clients expect to increase the level of electronic execution even more in the future.
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The ongoing ebb and flow of the European sovereign debt crisis and its impact on the underlying stability of bank balance sheets has focussed the minds of buy-side clients when it comes to choosing their FX counterparties.
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Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange took their bets against the euro to fresh record levels as the single currency rallied last week.
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Foreign exchange buy-side clients continue to move towards full adoption of electronic trading, according to a survey of buy side currency traders, conducted by EuromoneyFXNews, which has been published today.
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Icap, the world’s largest inter-dealer broker, has tested its systems for the break-up of the single currency.
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Lloyds Bank has hired the former European CEO of MF Global as head of trading for its wholesale banking and markets division, according to an internal memo seen by EuromoneyFXNews.
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The Japanese government on Tuesday increased the amount it is allowed to borrow from the market to finance foreign exchange intervention, raising speculation that Tokyo could be planning to intervene to weaken the yen over the holiday period.
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Average daily trading volumes on multi-dealer platform, FX Alliance, grew over 50% year-on-year in the third quarter but the firm's pre-IPO statement shows average transaction fees, its main source of revenue generation, continue to fall.
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Increased FX volumes and volatility, due to the escalation of the eurozone debt crisis and fears over a global slowdown, led to much higher revenues at major FX banks in the third quarter, according to consultancy firm Coalition.
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Emerging market currency indexes bounced back to positive returns in October after a turbulent September, although returns have lagged behind their equity counterparts, according to data from an independent index provider.
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Please take 3-5 minutes of your time to complete the following confidential, purely qualitative editorial survey on your e-trading activities
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Bank’s monopoly under threat after the launch of rival products by Citigroup and Morgan Stanley.
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High-net-worth individuals are boosting their allocations to currency investments at a time when they are reducing their exposures to alternative investments overall, as they seek more liquid instruments and better returns than are available from traditional asset classes.
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Sterling may be the most susceptible currency to a global economic slowdown because of the twin impact of severe fiscal austerity measures at home and reliance on European export markets that are likely to falter due to an expected deterioration in global growth, says Morgan Stanley in a report published September 1.
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High-frequency trading firms and banks could improve their trading performance by up to 30% and increase reliability of their systems in co-location data facilities by using so-called ‘submersion cooled’ technology, according an interview with the co-founder of manufacturer Hardcore Computers by High-Frequency Trading Review (HFTR).
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Some 94% of buy-side and sell-side firms now use liquidity aggregation in their FX trading systems, compared with 65% last year, according to a survey conducted by StreamBase Systems, a Lexington, Massachusetts-based technology firm that builds systems for real-time data streaming.
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Citigroup has made 3 new redundancies in its FX division in London.