FX Poll 1997: Taken aback by a leap forward
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Surveys

FX Poll 1997: Taken aback by a leap forward

The foreign exchange business is entering a period of rapid change. The lack of volatility in the market over the past 12 months has forced the big commercial banks, which have long dominated the business, to close offices and cut staff. In their place, our annual poll reveals, investment banks are winning a larger share of the business. The biggest surprise: Merrill Lynch, which jumps into the top 10 at number three. Antony Currie explains why.



Bankers have varying explanations why the HSBC group closed its New York foreign exchange trading operation for G7 currencies last September. Some blame management conflicts; others suggest losses on proprietary trades. Rob Loewy, HSBC Midland's head of foreign exchange, says that over 80% of trading took place when both the London and New York offices were open, and that it made more sense to house all the traders under one roof where risk mandates and liquidity were more favourable. In the end most bankers' comments boil down to this: that it was an admission that the bank couldn't make money

in the US - although Loewy disputes this - and that the move was another indication of the consolidation of the forex business.

But if consolidation is the name of the game, what is Merrill Lynch doing in third place in this year's foreign exchange survey? Its rise of 23 places easily eclipses last year's star climber, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, which had moved to ninth from 22nd.



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