Abigail with Attitude
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Somehow, we seem to be back in the TMT era. Do you even remember what those initials stood for? Think telecoms, media, technology, and dial back 12 years to the dot-com mania and the 3G auctions for mobile phone licences. In mid-October, the BlackBerry email network went down for several days, causing consternation to most financiers. For several years now, the BlackBerry has been seen as uncool. "A device for boring old men," one teenager sniffed. But I should point out that the London rioters planned their nocturnal activities using BlackBerry’s free messaging service.
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Blackberry meltdown adds to woes of desperate bankers; Sherwood stands out among disappointing diners at new Savoy Grill; Watch out for the next generation Weinberg at Goldman Sachs
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Somehow, we seem to be back in the TMT era. Do you even remember what those initials stood for? Think telecoms, media, technology, and dial back 12 years to the dot.com mania and the 3G auctions for mobile phone licences.
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I recently had lunch with a charming mole, who took me to the Savoy Grill. This was once a legendary meeting place for the power crowd. It has now been refurbished and is run by Gordon Ramsay.
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Blankfein might turn out to be one of the great survivors. Nevertheless, I am becoming convinced that the investment banking industry can be compared to the good ship Titanic, silently advancing through the dark night, towards the immutable iceberg.
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Woody’s glum demeanour might also have been due to succession planning or the lack of it at the firm. For more than a year, commentators have been insisting that Goldman’s chief executive Lloyd Blankfein would have to step down.
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So that’s your technology nugget, but the media story of the moment is causing nearly as much discussion. An empty interview occurred in the German Handelsblatt newspaper.
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My concern about succession planning at UBS was well founded. As politicians, central bankers and financiers gathered in Washington for the IMF/World Bank meetings, the UBS board met in Singapore. And contrary to what most people including myself had expected, UBS’s chief executive Oswald Grübel resigned, saying that he had to bear ultimate responsibility for the recent rogue-trading scandal inflicted on the bank by Kweku Adoboli.
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Grübel should have stayed to steady the ship; Ermotti becomes fourth CEO in four years, but what are his credentials for the role?; and a lame duck chairman cannot be the right person to force through the changes that UBS urgently needs to make
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Abigail with attitude: As a rogue trader undoes UBS, why are we paying regulators and risk managers?The Abigail with attitude column calls for the dismissal of anyone involved with the regulation of UBS’s investment bank.
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"Stay close to the shore." It’s a sophisticated phrase that I’ve always considered full of pregnant implications but never properly understood. Recently a friend explained: "It’s short for stick to things you know or where you have an edge."
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As London locks up its rioters, isn’t it time that investors stopped bankers acting as wardens of their own institutions? Meanwhile, the results season means the jury remains out for the likes of Blankfein, Gorman and Dougan
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The results season means the jury remains out for the likes of Blankfein, Gorman and Dougan
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Market histrionics and rioting hooligans are an indigestible combination. The August riots in London were an unwelcome back-drop to the bungee-jumping stock markets. I was intrigued by commentators’ attempts to link the two.
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As Wendi Murdoch stands by her man, why won’t Deutsche Bank give the sole CEO role to its most important banker?; the rating agency that keeps calling it right predicts a European meltdown; and what Goldman’s headcount cull could mean for the rest of the Street
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Abigail Hofman muses on the banks that are succeeding, Euromoney’s success in raising £600,000 for a worthy cause, and why bank chiefs are so bad at managing their succession
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Top traders are gloomy about the prospects for stock markets over the next 18 months, but not nearly as fed up as mid-level bankers looking with anger, rather than envy, at the compensation of their top bosses says Abigail Hofman
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A busy few weeks leave our columnist pondering: Can Kengeter get it right at UBS? Who’s right: the doom-mongers or the Cassandras? And how can you afford to miss the Chelsea Flower Show
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The day after my dinner, I took the Eurostar to Paris where I attended the 43rd annual conference of ICMA, the international debt markets’ trade association that describes its core objective as: ‘Improving the efficiency of cross-border securities markets.’ This year my former boss, Hans-Joerg Rudloff chairman of Barclays Capital, is retiring after six years as chairman of ICMA. Rudloff is one of the legends of the Eurobond market. Not surprisingly, he has featured on several covers of Euromoney magazine over the decades. It is 13 years since I first met Rudloff and he has not withered at all. At the tender age of 70, he still has the energy and tenacity of a much younger man. Everyone has his or her own Rudloff story. I have many but will pick one that illustrates that experience is an attribute much underestimated. In late 2007, I called on Rudloff to get some views for my column. As he escorted me out through the lobby, he paused, pulled off his glasses, rubbed his eyes and peered at me in an owl like fashion: “Abigail,” he growled, “Everything’s too frothy. People say it will be fine and there will be a soft landing. But I can tell you I’ve never seen a soft landing in my life.” Of course Rudloff was right. No one could possibly describe the events of 2008 as a soft-landing. Back in Paris, Rudloff hosted a glamorous party at the Musée Rodin. The hospitality was generous and there must have been over 500 ICMA delegates present. I saw many senior market figures including Martin Egan of BNP Paribas, Allegra Berman of UBS, Spencer Lake of HSBC and, of course, Cyrus Ardalan, vice-chairman of Barclays Capital, who takes over from Rudloff as the new chairman of ICMA. Cyrus has big shoes to fill. I hope Rudloff continues to be involved at the centre of international capital markets for many years to come.
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The most annoying words in the English language must be: I told you so. Nevertheless, I was correct when I wrote negatively about the Glencore IPO in June. ‘Can this be the right time to buy Glencore shares?’ I enquired. ‘When these guys are selling, do you want to be buying?’ It gives me no pleasure to report that on June 16, Glencore share were trading at £4.68, some 12% below the price at which the company listed its shares one month earlier. The shares now look over-sold and have traded up a little to around £4.90, but if you had been lured in to investing in the issue by a slick-tongued salesman, you might feel a little queasy today. I felt a little queasy in late May, not because of any ill-advised share purchases but because I had over-committed myself. Since I left investment banking, I take a more relaxed attitude to life and aim to dawdle in the slow lane, smelling the roses. Gone are the days of the 7am flight to Frankfurt, six meetings, two conference calls and a business dinner.
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Who’s right: the doom-mongers or the Cassandras?
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The saga of Strauss-Kahn at the Sofitel hotel serves as the ultimate antidote to smugness. One must always remember that what the gods give the gods can remove.
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Suddenly, the clouds converged and the warm spring sunlight dimmed. This was how I felt when I read that 47-year-old Pietro Ferrero, chief executive of the Ferrero group, and heir to one of Italy’s biggest fortunes, had died of a suspected heart attack. Ferrero died while bicycling on a coastal road near Cape Town during a break from a business meeting in South Africa. US treasuries
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“A UBS insider points out that the landscape in the securities division is flatter: ‘A layer has been removed.’ But I still think Carsten Kengeter has too many lieutenants”
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The wilderness years may be the title of a TV mini-series but it could as easily be a state of mind. I have been thinking about those who are in exile. Obviously potentates such as Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the former president of Tunisia, come to mind, but might the phrase also apply to senior bankers who are temporarily resting?
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This month there will be a changing of the guard at UK bank plc. I will be watching with interest as the new boys put on their bullet-proof vests and tin hats and go into battle.