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Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis
As the economic outlook continues to deteriorate in Europe and the US, corporates are facing challenges that are as severe as those experienced during the financial crisis of 2008/09. If commercial banks and other lending institutions fail to analyse correctly their credit risk exposures and update their forecasting models, they will be exposed to material credit losses. This course helps a wide range of credit professionals deal with the analytical, structuring and forecasting challenges they face today. It builds on the 4-day “Fundamentals of Credit Analysis” course. We analyse complex accounts, group structures and situations, using more advanced analytical and structuring techniques for assessing, limiting and offsetting credit risks. We assess parent/subsidiary credit linkages and also how to apply notching to layered capital structures. We also examine debt structuring and how to help a borrower construct an optimal capital structure, including different types of hybrid capital, ESG-related issuance and supplier finance. Finally, we review how to analyse deteriorating and distressed credits – how to spot early warning signs of a weakening credit profile and how to restructure firms worth saving.
Principal topics include:
- Advanced financial analysis, with case studies based on complex financial statements
- How firms may manipulate GAAP and non-GAAP figures
- Recommended adjustments to financial statements
- Complex group structures
- Understanding the credit impact of different consolidation methods
- Parent and subsidiary rating linkage
- Understanding the credit impact of legal and structural subordination and security
- Debt structuring - creating an optimal capital structure for a client, including debt layering, subject to minimizing WACC and market constraints
- Overview of new ESG debt products and of supplier finance
- Understanding how different types of hybrid securities are rated and how they can impact credit quality
- Deteriorating credits, potential and actual NPLs: warning signs and strategies for restructuring the firm and minimizing loss
The course combines formal theoretical instruction with frequent use of exercises and case studies. These are based on real situations and are designed to help delegates implement new practices and to learn from empirical experience. Delegates are expected to know how to use Excel. The course is practical and inter-active, with delegates encouraged to ask questions. The techniques taught are intended to be of immediate practical use in the workplace. The lecturer will be available throughout the duration of the course to offer additional help if required. All delegates must bring their laptops to facilitate in-class studies and exercises.
Who could benefit from this course?
- Credit analysts on the sell-side
- Credit counter-party risk analysts
- Fixed income fund managers
- Asset management credit analysts on the buy-side
- Debt capital markets executives on the sell side
- Investment bankers
- Fixed income/credit traders
- Fixed income/credit sales people
- Private equity executives
- Equity analysts and strategists
- Compliance officers and internal audit
- Equity sales and traders
- Corporate finance lawyers
Day 1: Morning
Section 1: Advanced financial analysis for complex credits
1.1 Income statement forecasts and adjustments
- How do income statement entries affect the credit analysis and what adjustments should we make?
- Revenues and costs
- Considerations for forecasting growth
- Key drivers and risks
- The impacts of macro factors, disruption, ESG and technology
- The impact of operating leverage
- Segmental analysis
- IFRS reported numbers versus management adjustments
- Adjusted EBITDA versus underlying EBITDA; EBITDA add-backs
- Key adjustments to reported numbers
- Exceptional, non-underlying, non-core and non-recurring items
- Capitalised expenses – operating, development and interest
- Amounts relating to discontinued items
- Accretion expense
- Defined benefit pensions
- Hybrid securities
- Off balance sheet items
- Can losses be hidden in off-balance sheet vehicles?
- Understanding lease expense post IFRS 16
- Taxation – effective, statutory and marginal rates
- Items in the statement of other comprehensive income
- Case studies: using complex accounts to calculate and interpret the gross margin, EBITDA(R) margin, EBIT margin, pre-tax margin, net margin, productivity ratios, interest cover ratios, dividend cover and enhanced dividend cover ratios
Day 1: Afternoon
1.2 Balance sheet forecasts and adjustments
- How do balance sheet entries affect the credit analysis and what adjustments should we make?
- Non-current tangible assets
- Valuation basis, impairments, replacement cycle
- Intangible assets
- Recognition, valuation basis, impairments
- How much of the firm’s cashflow is dependent on intangible assets?
- Shareholdings in equity accounted entities
- Deferred tax assets
- Current assets
- How inventory valuations impact earnings
- Receivables – collection trends, accruals, retentions
- Bad debt provisions and write-offs
- Liquidity analysis
- Restricted cash, returnable cash and other financial assets
- Discontinued items
- Current liabilities
- Dealing with excessive trade payables and over-due tax
- Overdrafts, RCF, supplier finance, undrawn facilities
- Deferred income and accrued expenses
- Net working capital – seasonality; how NWC can be manipulated
- Provisions, current and non-current
- Deferred revenues – impact on liquidity of unwinds
- Deferred tax liabilities
- Analysing lease liabilities post IFRS 16
- IFRS 16 exceptions – dealing with leases that are still off-balance sheet
- Differences between a service contract and a lease
- Unfunded retiree liabilities
- Non-recourse debt of subsidiaries and non-consolidated entities
- Dealing with “other creditors”
- Off balance sheet liabilities – contingent liabilities, receivables securitisation
- Defining gross and net debt, including hybrids
- Liquidity – sources, measurement, forecasting
- Does the BV of equity matter? Does negative equity affect the credit profile?
- Case studies: using complex accounts to calculate and interpret key ratios - leverage ratios, liquidity, current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio, asset coverage, working capital ratios (inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, accounts payable turnover), ROIC, ROE, asset turnover
Day 2: Morning
1.3 Cashflow statement forecasts and adjustments
- How do cashflow statement entries affect the credit analysis and what adjustments should we make?
- Are operating earnings turning into operating cashflow?
- What is the impact on cashflow of NWC changes, provisions, equity accounted entities and other non-cash items?
- Is the firm under or over-investing in maintenance and expansionary capex?
- Are investment forecasts consistent with growth forecasts?
- How are leases dealt with in the cashflow statement, post IFRS 16?
- Can the firm cover debt service, tax and investment spending?
- How are dividends funded? Are they sustainable?
- What is the scope for dividend increases and share buybacks?
- Is the firm reliant on external funding?
- How the rating agencies define cashflow
- Case studies: using complex accounts to calculate and interpret interest cover, debt service cover (DSCR), RCF/net debt, years to repay gross debt, investment cover, dividend cover, cash conversion ratios, dependence on external funding
Section 2: Complex group structures and parent and subsidiary rating linkage
2.1 Complex group structures
- Defining complex group structures
- The credit and rating impacts of partial ownership, a high level of NCI and off balance sheet entities
- Proportional debt, earnings and cash flow of entities that are not wholly-owned
- Who owns/controls the debt, assets, earnings, cashflows?
- The impacts of different consolidation methods and how to make adjustments
- The credit and rating impacts of different types of subordination
- The credit and rating impacts of security packages
- Case studies: reviews of complex group structures; assessing the rating notching implications of different group structures
Day 2: Afternoon
2.2 Parent and subsidiary rating linkage
- Credit assessment of groups, the importance of ownership, analysing a group
- Non-recourse projects e.g. associates and joint-ventures
- Non-guaranteed subsidiaries
- Captive finance subsidiaries
- Fitch criteria for associates, j/vs, subsidiaries
- S&P criteria for associates, j/vs, subsidiaries, captive finance subs
- Case study: working out relative ratings for group structures
2.3 Factors that could limit credit risk
- Credit support from third parties
- Credit enhancement
- Shortfall agreements
- Collateral – value, liquidity, perfection, enforcement
- Reducing exposure through the use of credit linked notes (CLNs)
- Case study: Quiz on factors that could limit credit risk
Section 3: Analysing and understanding various debt products
3.1 Green loans/bonds, social loans/bonds and commodity bonds
- Key features and benefits
- Recent transactions and pricing
3.2 Supplier finance
- What is it?
- Different methods of structuring supplier finance
- How it be used to show lower leverage
3.3 Hybrids instruments
- Convertible bonds, mandatory convertible bonds, exchangeable bonds
- How much equity credit should be given?
- IFRS approach
- The rating agencies’ approaches
- How to adjust leverage and interest cover ratios for hybrids
- Case study: estimating how much equity credit to assign to hybrids
Day 3: Morning
Section 4: Debt structuring
4.1 Financial objectives and achieving an optimal capital structure
- What are the firm’s financial objectives?
- Are they realistic?
- Defining an optimal capital structure
- Reviewing the advantages and disadvantages of equity and debt
- Defining enterprise value and equity value
- Overview of WACC
- The cost of debt, equity and hybrid instruments
- Adjusting WACC for multi-national groups
- Factoring in sovereign risk to the cost of debt and equity
Case studies: Calculating EV and equity values; practicing ke and WACC calculations
4.2 Debt capacity and debt tranches
- What is the firm’s debt capacity?
- Theoretical debt capacity versus market reality and constraints
- Sources of debt service and repayment
- Capital layering – using mezzanine and subordinated debt
- Factoring in HC debt and double leverage
- Who should be the borrower – HC, OpCo or other?
- Using off balance vehicles and products
- Could the firm benefit from some of the debt products mentioned above?
- Assessing repayment capacity for amortising debt
- Managing the capital structure for a cyclical firm
- How will new financing change the firm’s capital structure, WACC, eps, credit ratings?
- Case studies: Using a financial forecasting model to change the firm’s capital structure and assess the impacts on credit ratios. Undertaking scenario analysis to stress test the cashflow forecasts
Day 3: Afternoon
Section 6: Analysing distressed firms
6.1 Early warning signs of distress
- Overview of recent trends in downgrades, default and distress rates
- The impact of Covid-19 on different countries, sectors and firms
- Background and definitions
- Causes of distress and common early warning signs
- Macro and sector signals; event risks
- Analysing the financial statements and notes of distressed corporates
- Income statement and operational signs
- Cashflow signs - prospective and actual lliquidity
- Balance sheet signs
- Case studies: spotting early warning signs and analysing distressed credits
6.2 What to do in the event of distress and potential restructuring solutions
- Is it a liquidity problem, a leverage problem or a viability problem?
- Speculative grade liquidity ratings
- Acting on early warning signs if there is no covenant breach
- Amendments and waivers
- Advantages and disadvantages of calling an event of default
- Options for restructuring and recovery
- Does the firm have any residual equity value?
- Could it have a positive equity value in future?
- Is it worth saving? Should the lenders advance additional funding?
- Operational restructurings
- Restructuring the borrowing base without debt write-offs
- DIP funding and the use of the super-senior RCF
- PIK and extended maturities; cashflow sweeps
- Equity issuance, shareholder loans and equity cures
- Restructuring the borrowing base with debt write-offs
- Debt for equity swaps, debt for debt swaps, debt forgiveness, discounted debt buybacks
- PIK, PIYC
- Modelling debt restructuring options for distressed firms
- Review of models for PD and LGD from Moody’s, KMV and CreditMetrics
- Case studies: modelling new borrowing facilities and debt restructuring solutions for distressed firms
Course summary and close
Our Tailored Learning Offering
Do you have five or more people interested in attending this course? Do you want to tailor it to meet your company’s exact requirements? If you’d like to do either of these, we can bring this course to your company’s office. You could even save up to 50% on the cost of sending delegates to a public course and dramatically increase your ROI.
If you want to run this course at a location convenient to you or if you want a completely customised learning solution, we can help.
We produce learning solutions that are completely unique to your business. We’ll guide you through the whole process, from the initial consultancy to evaluating the success of the full learning experience. Our learning specialists ensure you get the maximum return on your training investment.
We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.
We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:
- Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
- Track record – 10/10 of the world’s largest banks have chosen us as there training provider and we have delivered training across the largest banks and have trained over 25,000 professionals.
- Knowledge – our 100+ strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
- Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 25,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 99 countries.
- Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 4.2/5 on service and 4.7/5 on Coursecheck
Sarah MartinBanks and other financial institutions can lose billions of dollars annually due to their failure to analyse and anticipate credit risks correctly. That's where my training course comes in.
BiographySarah Martin has worked as a financial trainer for over ten years for many major financial institutions in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Recent clients include: The EBRD, The EIB, BBVA, Gibbs Business School in Johannesburg, Bahrain Institute of Business Finance, Bank of China, Erste Bank, Raiffeisen Bank, Standard Bank and Mizuho Bank. The delegate profile ranges from graduates to board members. She trains in financial analysis, basic and advanced credit analysis, LBOs, company valuation, financial modelling and distressed debt. The training involves classroom learning and also blended training using videos, webinars and other forms of e-learning. She has a degree in economics from the London School of Economics and stock exchange qualifications from London and New York. A former Executive Director of CSFB and Lehman Brothers, the trainer has spent seventeen years working as an investment banker in Europe and the US. She has principally worked in the credit markets and has experience of the US and European high grade, high yield and mezzanine markets, the European new issue markets, the Asian convertible bond markets and of corporate restructurings of distressed credits. She specialised in the telecoms sector and was closely involved in the structuring, raising and/or trading of bank and public debt for telecoms companies in many countries, including Europe, South Africa, Asia and Latin America. She also has extensive experience of corporate finance transactions, including mergers, disposals, privatisations, IPOs and capital raisings. She has also worked as an expertise witness in financial lawsuits.