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Course details

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Economic Analysis, Financing & Modelling for Renewable Energy

Understand project finance & energy renewable investments - book today!
  • Course Overview


    This five day training course will discuss the following:

    • Contrast risk and financial structuring for different types of renewable projects including biomass, on-shore wind, off-shore wind, solar PV, solar thermal and geothermal
    • Create flexible and transparent financial models of renewable energy from A-Z that incorporate resource risk, financing structure, tax treatments, alternative pricing policies and other factors
    • Learn practical tools to analyse renewable energy including efficient tools to work with wind, hydro and solar data; creating flexible scenario and sensitivity analysis to evaluate resource risk, construction risk, O&M risk and debt structuring; developing techniques to resolve circular references related to funding debt and sculpting debt without copy and paste macros
    • Measure and evaluate changes in the risk of projects over different stages of the project and how equity returns and value change if purchases and sales occur at different phases of a project's life
    • Understand the implications of project finance features in the context of renewable energy (sculpting, debt funding, debt size, DSCR, DSRA, debt tenor, re-financing) on costs and equity returns from renewable energy
    • Develop efficient ways to quickly compute the levelised electricity cost of different technologies using carrying charge factors and alternative financial models
    • Work through resource assessments and compute probability of achieving different levels of production (P90, P75 etc.) using hands-on exercises for different types of projects in order to effectively review consulting studies
    • Evaluate recent cost trends in capital cost, operating cost and efficiency of renewable resource through studying financial condition of wind and solar suppliers over the past few years
    • Measure the effect of probabilistic risk assessment on the debt capacity of alternative renewable projects and the effects of the DSCR constraint versus the debt to capital constraint


    Course resources

    Other than the instruction in how to build, use and analyse financial models in evaluating renewable energy projects, all participants will receive a comprehensive suite of financial modelling software, tailored teaching exercises and research articles on a series of compact disks which include a variety of template models and excel add-ins.

    The software includes of project finance models that measure the effect of alternative elements in a cash flow waterfall including debt service reserves, junior debt, covenants, defaults and pre-payments; corporate models that accept historic financial data and generate alternative valuation measures; M&A models that consolidate two companies using alternative financing assumptions and produce accretion and dilution estimates; LBO models that measure the debt capacity of a transaction; option pricing models that account for alternative structures; and debt valuation spreadsheets, Monte Carlo simulation models, tornado diagram and sensitivity analysis.
    In addition to the software resources, participants will receive databases on actual projects, commodity price history and case studies. Finally, participants will receive financial library and a manuscript from the book titled The Valuation Mirage, which addresses many modelling and valuation issues covered in the course.

  • Day 1

    Overview

    • Project finance terms and transaction structure
    • Project finance definition
    • Phases in project financing
    • Structure and contracts in project financing
    • Overview of project finance debt
    • Economic and financial theory of project finance
    • Importance of cost of capital for capital intensive renewable investments
    • Traditional financial analysis of investment
    • Problems in measuring risk of investments and lessons from financial crisis
    • Use of debt capacity in project finance to measure risk
    • Costs and benefits of project finance
    • Financial theory and project finance
    • Examples of successful project finance transactions
    • Examples of unsuccessful project finance
    Case study introduction

    Throughout the five day course, we will use a case study on a solar, on-shore and off-shore wind farm project. General information on the case will be provided to course participants ahead of the course.
    The introduction to the case will discuss comparison of transaction with other renewable and non-renewable
    electricity transactions; why project finance was used rather than other financing alternatives; how to interpret the sources and uses of funds statement, the cash flow waterfall and general structure of the project finance debt.

    Economic analysis of renewable investments

    • Drivers of value in renewable energy projects
    • Resource assessment
    • Electricity pricing
    • Capital costs
    • Taxes and financing
    • Operating costs
    • Risk analysis and value measurement
    • Development of simple financial model
    • Computation of irr and dscr
    • Risk analysis using break-even analysis
    • Risk analysis using scenario analysis
    • Risk analysis using spider and tornado diagrams
    • Discussion of nuanced economic issues
    • Value and costs of development and research stage
    • Mean reversion of resource evaluation
    • Value of different tax and financing incentives


    Day 2

    Development phase analysis

    • Overview of development costs in renewable projects
    • Development time frame and costs in wind and solar projects
    • Exploration costs and time frame in geothermal projects
    • Development fees and compensation for development
    • Probabilities of proceeding beyond development
    • Modelling exploration and development options – geothermal case
    • Inputs – exploration and development cost, probability time frame
    • Segregating development phases
    • Discount rates for different stages
    • Computation of expected value
    • Interpretation of development value
    • Relative effect of development cash costs and construction costs
    • Break-even development probability
    • Length of development period

    Day 3

    Resource assessment

    • Overview of resource assessment in renewable projects
    • Resource assessment of wind
    • Resource assessment of solar
    • Resource assessment of geothermal and hydro
    • Probability distributions of resources
    • Exercise on modelling resource distributions of wind
    • Power curve for wind turbines
    • Distribution of wind resources and wind studies
    • Simulation of power distribution
    • Computation of P95, P90, P75 and P50 statistics
    • Interpretation of resource assessment
    • Mean reversion of resources
    • Aspects of probability distribution other than resources
    • Use of probabilities in financial analysis
    • Contrast among different risks

    Day 4

    • Valuation and credit analysis in project finance
    • Financial statement analysis in project finance
    • Source and use of funds statement
    • Income statement and use of EBITDA
    • Interpretation of cash flow statement
    • Evaluation of operating and debt service reserve accounts
    • Computation of equity cash flow and free cash flow
    • Analytical Exercise: Computation of equity cash flow, free cash flow and cash flow for debt service from financial statements
    • Project finance valuation
    • Project IRR to screen projects
    • Equity IRR to structure projects and minimum required equity IRR for different Renewable projects
    • Equity IRR complexities from re-financing and development fees
    • Credit analysis in renewable project finance
    • Background on probability of default and loss given default
    • Definition and calculation of DSCR
    • Use of DSCR in base (P50 cases) and downside (P90, P95 cases) in determining debt capacity
    • Application of LLCR and PLCR
    • Average life and other ratios
    • Analytical exercise: computation of equity IRR, project IRR, DSCR and LLCR using cash flow definitions
    Case study continuation – financial analysis


    Participants will interpret financial statements from the case and from other electric generation transactions. The financial data will be used to evaluate the historic performance of the project from the perspective of both sponsors and lenders. Issues addressed will include the expected future trends in financial statements; discussion of interest capitalised during construction and accounting treatment of financing fees.

    Day 5

    Project finance models
    • Objectives and structure of project finance models
    • General objectives of financial models and financial forecasts
    • Objectives of project finance models
    • General flow and design of project finance models
    • Examples of the structure of actual project finance models
    • Mechanical issues in creating and interpreting project finance models
    • Sources and uses analysis in models
    • Importance of debt module
    • Fixed asset analysis
    • Profit and loss statement and tax analysis
    • Cash flow waterfall
    • Tax flip structures
    • Analytical exercise: computation of simple financial model
    Case study continuation – working with financial model
    Participants will use and interpret a completed financial model of the case study transaction. The financial model will initially be reviewed and then participants will adjust various inputs in the model including use of alternative financing terms and operating assumptions. Participants will use the model to interpret equity IRR, project IRR and DSCR’s using different assumptions.

    • Structural enhancements in project finance
    • Objectives of structural enhancements
    • Definition of structural enhancements
    • Timing of equity cash flow distribution and equity IRR
    • Management of distributions
    • Trade-offs between risk and return with structural enhancements
    • Cash flow lock-up covenants
    • Examples of lock-up covenants
    • Cost of lock-up covenants in terms of equity IRR
    • Benefits of lock-up to lenders
    • Lock-up tradeoffs in alternative transactions
      • Debt service and maintenance reserve accounts
      • Accounting for debt service reserve accounts
        • Rational for operating reserve accounts
        • Example of reserve accounts in electricity generation
    • Cost of lock-up reserve accounts
    • Risk reduction from reserve accounts
    • Cash flow sweeps
    • Examples of cash sweeps in electricity generation
    • Cost of cash sweeps
    • Risk reduction to lenders from cash sweeps
    Recap the course

  • Our Tailored Learning Offering

    Do you have five or more people interested in attending this course? Do you want to tailor it to meet your company’s exact requirements? If you’d like to do either of these, we can bring this course to your company’s office. You could even save up to 50% on the cost of sending delegates to a public course and dramatically increase your ROI.

    If you want to run this course at a location convenient to you or if you want a completely customised learning solution, we can help.

    We produce learning solutions that are completely unique to your business. We’ll guide you through the whole process, from the initial consultancy to evaluating the success of the full learning experience. Our learning specialists ensure you get the maximum return on your training investment.

  • We have a combined experience of over 60 years providing learning solutions to the world’s major organisations and are privileged to have contributed to their success. We view our clients as partners and focus on understanding the needs of each organisation we work with to tailor learning solutions to specific requirements.

    We are proud of our record of customer satisfaction. Here is why you should choose us to help you achieve your goals and accelerate your career:

    • Quality – our clients consistently rate our performance ‘excellent’ or ‘outstanding’. Our average overall score awarded to us by our clients is nine out of ten.
    • Track record – we have delivered training solutions for 95% of worlds’ top 100 banks and have trained over 250,000 professionals.
    • Knowledge – our 150 strong team of industry specialist trainers are world leading financial leaders and commentators, ensuring our knowledge base is second to none.
    • Reliability – if we promise it, we deliver it. We have delivered over 20,000 events both in person and online, using simultaneous translation to delegates from over 180 countries.
    • Recognition – we are accredited by the British Accreditation Council and the CPD Certification Service. In an independent review by Feefo we scored 96% on service and 95% on product
This course can be run as an In-house or Tailored Learning programme

Instructor

  • Ed Bodmer

    Biography

    Ed has created innovative forward pricing, productivity measurement and investment valuation software for consulting clients throughout the United States. He has taught energy economics and finance throughout the world, and formulated significant government policy and corporate strategy in the U.S. His consulting clients include investment banks, commercial banks, research institutions and government agencies on a wide variety of complex valuation and advisory matters. He has constructed a unique framework for electricity price forecasting and valuation using production cost modelling techniques combined with option price theory and Monte Carlo simulation. He is also an adjunct professor at leading University where he teaches courses in microeconomics. Along with his practical experience that covers a multitude of major advisory projects, he has taught specialised courses in financial modelling, electricity pricing, option valuation, mergers and acquisitions and contracting to investment banks, commercial banks, industrial corporations and electric utility companies. He was formerly Vice President at the First National Bank of Chicago where he directed analysis of energy loans and also created financial modelling techniques used in advisory projects. He has used the models in providing expert testimony on subjects ranging from capital structure to investments in multi-billion dollar nuclear plants to complex valuation of new investments. He received an MBA degree specialising in econometrics (with honours) from the University of Chicago and a BS degree in finance from the University of Illinois (with highest university honours). He has written many articles and is in the process of completing a textbook on valuation of electricity assets.

Venue

Etc. Venues County Hall

This course will take place at the modern and stylish Etc. Venues, based at the County Hall in Central London.

We strive to provide you with a training environment of the highest quality, to ensure that the whole learning experience exceeds your expectations.

Delegates are responsible for arranging their own accommodation. We have detailed our most frequently used training destinations in London on this map.

If you need help booking accommodation for your visit to our training courses, please contact accommodation@euromoney.com and our accommodation partner Helms Briscoe will help you get the best rate possible.