The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site.

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2020 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.
Opinion

Macaskill on markets: Cracking the FX revenue code

A survey released by index provider Coalition on May 24 revealed the grim state of FX business lines.



safe-vault-600


When banks released first quarter 2017 results there was a focus on the recovery in broad fixed income revenues, compared with the same period in 2016. This was driven by strong performance in rates and credit products, however, which masked chronic weakness in FX and commodities. 

Most banks do not disclose detailed breakdowns of revenue splits within fixed income (or equities), but the Coalition survey of first-quarter income for the 12 top investment banks revealed that G10 FX revenues fell 25% from the same period last year to $1.8 billion, which was the lowest level since the survey began in 2006.

Predictions by many strategists of likely FX trends for 2017 proved to be wrong, as they so often do. The ‘Trump trade’ across asset classes was a bust in its FX incarnation, with expectations for a much higher dollar and parity to the euro, for example.

The mirror image ‘Macron-omics’ trade that became popular after the French presidential election is unlikely to deliver much FX revenue growth to banks, even if the euro continues to strengthen on hopes of economic growth in Europe. 





You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.

SUBSCRIBE ONLINE TODAY

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually

FREE 7 DAY TRIAL

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors

LOGIN NOW

Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree