Macaskill on Markets
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Sideways: How to trade Trump 2.0
Donald Trump is now likely to win the US presidential election after a disastrous debate performance by incumbent Joe Biden. Trump 2.0 may bring complications as well as benefits for Wall Street. -
Boomer candy could end in a derivatives sugar high
Derivatives structurers are thriving, but regulators aren’t convinced the biggest Wall Street banks have a firm grasp of their complex exposure. -
Sideways: Macron is Monsieur M&A
President Macron’s newfound zeal for cross-border financial M&A is creating a headache for France’s big banks.
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A US climate bill filled with green credits will create business for banks and provide relief from the backlash against ESG products.
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West Virginia state treasurer Riley Moore has opened another front in a campaign by Republican officials in the US against banks that promote ESG policies.
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HSBC Asset Management’s head of responsible investing has had it up to here with consultants and regulators lecturing him on climate change risk.
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Anything except a brief stay on as chairman would cast a baleful shadow over the chief executive’s successor at JPMorgan.
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Junior bankers should relax about the threat to their jobs from AI and lean into opportunities to bluff their way to Wall Street glory.
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A move back up in rates is creating a PR battle among Wall Street banks. JPMorgan was punished for a cautious outlook, Goldman Sachs promoted strong fixed income trading results and Bank of America projected a Zen approach to rate moves.
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The Fed chair has made a remarkable, virtually unconditional surrender to opponents of his plan for Basel III implementation in the US. The tactical withdrawal is embarrassing, but it makes strategic sense.
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Luring star bankers from rivals – like Citi’s appointment of JPMorgan veteran Viswas Raghavan – can bring hidden costs beyond the expense of replacing stock options for the lucky new hire.
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Wall Street bankers tempted to pick a fight with the Federal Reserve should take a lesson from the insider trading plea deal by investor Joe Lewis.
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Opposition to the proposed Basel III endgame for US banks is now so widespread that a climb down by the Federal Reserve is likely. Wall Street bankers like Jamie Dimon can stop crying wolf about increased capital requirements and think carefully about publicly threatening their regulators.
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Our resident seer hears Ted Pick say don’t worry about the $20 million Morgan Stanley loyalty bonuses.
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Banks and investors opposed to European Union derivatives clearing plans have made an astonishing charge: the EU is worse than the US in jealously guarding its own markets.
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A tactical retreat on crypto regulation might help SEC chair Gary Gensler to avoid being bogged down in a war of attrition for the rest of his term.
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Tottenham Hotspur’s Joe Lewis was indicted for insider trading just before yen volatility presented an opportunity for profitable currency dealing.
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Banks including NatWest and JPMorgan are struggling to put out reputational risk-management fires.
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An odd legal case trying to pin the blame for Credit Suisse additional tier-1 (AT1) bond losses on former chief executive Brady Dougan and other veteran managers could complicate the task of recovering losses for holders of $17 billion of bonds that were wiped out in the takeover by UBS.
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Veteran banker Tom Montag is to join the board of Goldman Sachs in a bid to bolster support for embattled chief executive David Solomon. Weak second quarter earnings could make this task harder.
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Could trading of US sovereign credit default swaps trigger a global systemic meltdown? Probably not, but default swap shenanigans aren’t helping to calm jittery markets.