September 2014
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LATEST ARTICLES
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The security crisis brought on by the rise of Islamic State could turn Iran from pariah to much-needed partner to the west. Financial sanctions have hit both Iran’s economy and its banks hard. Inflation is rampant, NPLs are soaring, while banks lack capital. Corporates can’t get the funding they need. Local bank chiefs are itching to open their doors once again to foreign counterparties. If sanctions are lifted, what will the world’s bankers find in Tehran and beyond?
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Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan’s tough monetary medicine combatted the storm ravaging the deficit-ridden economy in the recent emerging market crisis. Now, he is battling vested interests to arouse a sleepy financial system for over one billion people.
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In exclusive interviews, leaders of Indian finance reveal how banks, nursing wounds from the recent credit boom, should be set free from the shackles of state control, as reformists raise hopes of a new dawn for Indian capitalism. A jolt, not a tweak, to the financial system is desperately needed.
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India needs a litany of reforms to unshackle its stalled capitalist project. Modi’s government should take inspiration from the paradox of Singapore’s activist state and strong private sector.
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Mexico’s finance minister is the rarest of breeds in the current global economy. He is delivering reform-driven economic growth
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It has been another torrid month for the rouble, but the possibility of tensions with Ukraine abating in the near term and a package of monetary reforms next year offer hope for more trading opportunities.
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Asset management company Cinda is a stark example of the implausible nature of China’s financial system. It has transformed its business model from an NPL warehouse to what some call a giant shadow bank. With more AMCs in the pipeline, analysts are beginning to question if China understands the risks it is piling up.
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Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.
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Kazakhstan is going all out to achieve its goal of becoming a middle-income state by 2030, forming unique partnerships with development banks. It could be a turning point not just for the central Asia nation, but for the multilaterals too.
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With a seemingly bottomless pool of cheap bank funding readily available, companies in emerging Europe have tended to shun the international bond markets. A recent spurt of debut deals, however, has prompted speculation that the long-awaited shift might finally be under way.
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There’s a new buzzword from Ankara to Istanbul in Turkey’s financial markets: sustainability. Not of the environmental kind, but borne of a desire to keep the positive developments of the country’s economy, and its banks, flowing.
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Regulators have been strident, if rather late, in their concern over the risk that short-term retail money now represents in today’s high yield corporate bond market. So when retail funds began to sell off in late July many braced for the worst. But by the end of August it was as if nothing had happened. The bond market’s ability to adapt may be greater than Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen believes.
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The M&A market has caught fire with a series of jumbo corporate deals. Bidders claim that these are compelling strategic transactions that will create long-term value. But the real reason may be fear that shareholders are now focused on weak revenue prospects. Buying earnings is a way for companies to prevent share prices that low policy rates have inflated from falling back to earth. But confidence is still surprisingly fragile. A couple more big deal failures could slam the M&A market back into the freezer and take the equity markets with it.
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Debt capital markets bankers have so far watched the boom in M&A activity with a mixture of envy and anticipation. But they’re increasingly confident that a buyer-led bond boom is on the way.
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Unless there is an accelerated plan for full political and fiscal union, the next eurozone crisis could prove existential.
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The big happening in the next 12 months will be the repricing of global capital. It will impact the price of every currency and asset. It’s a complex and exciting story.
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It’s hard out there for a short, even with a multi-year credit and equity rally looking increasingly fatigued.
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Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman’s desperate attempt to push down the stock of nutritional supplement provider Herbalife provides the highest profile recent example of the challenges faced by short sellers.
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Mexico’s central bank surprised the market in June when it cut its base rate by 50 basis points. Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year in 2013 stresses that the credibility of the bank’s focus on inflation should not be doubted
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The month of August is supposed to bring peace of mind to busy bankers: the frenetic pace of markets diminishes and the bosses depart for their villas in Tuscany or mansions in the Hamptons.
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For those of you who were dozing on the beach this summer, with your smart-phones switched off, a leading Portuguese bank was restructured in August and no one, least of all the regulators, seems to have forewarned us of this impending disaster.
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As bankers prepare to pack their bags for the annual meetings in Washington in October, they’ll be starting to consider what policy initiatives the IMF and World Bank might announce over the busy weekend.
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Sean Park, one of the bond market’s best-known characters during his time at Paribas and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, is now engaged in disrupting the financial industry he was once at the sharp end of.
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As regular readers might remember, I have long been worried about the inflationary impact of the extraordinary zero interest-rate policy which central banks have foisted on us.
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Iran and the west don’t have to be friends, but there will be big benefits from a rapprochement.
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Lebanon’s economy was already under pressure before the arrival of countless refugees from Syria. The IMF has flagged up serious problems in the public finances and the country itself recognizes the need for reform in many areas. Nevertheless, a stable political base and strong banking sector offer cause for optimism
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The economic ties between the UAE and India have gone from strength to strength in recent years and are set to deepen further. The UAE not only offers India the promise of investment in its creaking infrastructure, but a compelling investment environment for Indian companies and a staging post for expansion. Conversely, Asia’s third largest economy offers Arab companies growth opportunities
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The longest-serving central bank governor in the world has seen it all, and even now is keeping the economy growing despite domestic political paralysis and the spillover from Syria.
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The Emirates’ economy has recovered much of the ground it lost in 2008. The country’s banks are taking advantage by growing strongly. Is there a danger of another round of overheating?
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Some banks are national powerhouses, building out across the region; others are already regional players, with individual markets creating something greater than the sum of their parts
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Lima will host the 2015 World Bank-IMF meetings. But will the country’s moment in the sun be blighted by the dark clouds of an economic slowdown?
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Dilma Rousseff has told Brazil’s public banks to boost the country’s flagging consumption until the elections with double-digit loan growth. Weakening credit quality and capital ratios are worrying analysts.
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The ice-bucket challenge has invaded popular culture over the summer, and the banking community has not been immune to its dubious pleasures. In late August, Rich Handler, CEO of investment bank Jefferies, took on the challenge but, like many in his industry, attempted to take it one step further – by immersing himself in a jacuzzi filled with ice cubes.
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Private banking clients in Brazil face challenging times, bankers concede. The economy is under pressure and the country could yet suffer stagflation. Furthermore, an unpredictable presidential race leaves markets in limbo. However, bankers are confident their well-educated client base will not over-react, and instead maintain their long-term strategies
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Investment banking has the potential to be big business in sub-Saharan Africa. But which banks are setting themselves up for success in the region?
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Infrastructure development and streamlined processes have helped the East African Community make great strides to become one of the most successful trading blocs in Africa. But regional inconsistencies threaten to derail further integration.
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Mexico’s energy reforms should kick-start growth in its lacklustre economy while Brazil appears to have no strategic planning in place.
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As retail money accounts for an ever-larger percentage of leveraged finance, investors must not lose sight of what this asset class is all about.
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Russia’s consumer lenders are the modern face of Russian finance, and could prove resilient to the current crisis.
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The players and payers attracting the top digital talent are not the financial powerhouses, but the technology firms.
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The M&A business is the most compulsive spectacle of how booming financial markets have collided with the real economy.
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Those in need of credit are turning to emerging online platforms rather than their traditional banks. It’s faster, easier and more transparent. And emerging market business is leading the way.
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The world’s biggest banks have been slow to embrace the digital era. What can financial services CEOs learn from new, tech-based companies that have successfully disrupted other industries? What needs to change?
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BBVA has embarked on a bold transformational strategy to become the world’s first digital global bank, and reinvent itself as a knowledge-based information company, fit – it hopes – for the modern era and beyond. Could the Spanish bank be providing a blueprint for the future of banking? CEO Francisco González certainly believes so.
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Big data, analytics and technology have the potential to transform the global investment banking industry into a leaner, meaner and better-equipped money making machine. Some investment banks have recognised the opportunity. Few, if any, have worked out how to make it happen.
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Sanctions overs the conflict in Ukraine have closed off western capital markets to some Russian companies, giving Asia an opportunity to take a greater role. But an easy ride in the east is not guaranteed.
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A three-way banking merger is the biggest yet in Malaysia, part of a regional trend to boost domestic firms to compete locally and abroad. It would also give the country a big contender in Islamic finance
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Election campaign delays rationing; ‘pray for rain’ say analysts.
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Asset allocation hangs on election result; closing the instrument is good news for private banks.
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Liquidity is up and leverage is down. Alternative lenders are stepping in where banks can no longer tread. While the period of re-regulation may not yet be over, real estate finance is starting to look in rude health once again.
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Listing will inject much-needed liquidity; US banks secure key IPO lead mandates.
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The European Central Bank’s announcement on Thursday that it would start a private sector purchase programme of both ABS and covered bonds was both widely anticipated and yet still quite shocking.
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Argentina and Greece heighten official focus; new clauses address Elliott Management strategy.
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Fifteen per cent of workers opt in to private system; turnover on WSE seen increasing.
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CEO flags up acquisition but country head plays it down; five ECM deals in first 18 months.
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Revenue boosts provides buffer; small banks worst hit.
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Banks at the forefront of pledges; attempts to deepen US-Africa trade.