January 2012
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LATEST ARTICLES
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In the run-up to Christmas, I met up with three bank chief executives. This opening sounds a bit like a line from the carol The 12 days of Christmas. In that case, it would be followed by a chorus of "and a partridge in a pear tree". I found the chiefs weary after an unexpectedly tough year. One was recovering from flu, another had suffered a nasty bout of pneumonia and the third looked shattered.
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In these anxious times, amid fears of financial meltdown and pressure on bankers to prove their social utility and dispel popular loathing, Euromoney is heartened to sit down with a whey-faced senior banker in the week before Christmas. He has done well to make the early appointment, in fact his second after a client breakfast, having spent the small hours of the morning pleading with security at the venue for his firm’s Christmas party.
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If the evidence of a recent competition to find the best-dressed banker in the City is to be believed, bank staff working in credit are more likely to be well dressed than their counterparts on the equity side.
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City of London: The history; David Kynaston; Chatto & Windus
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More coals were heaped on the head of Johnny Cameron after the details in December’s FSA report on the failure of RBS revealed how little he appeared to understand the mechanics of structured credit when he was head of global banking and markets at the firm.
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Banks face tough decisions on how hard they should fight to retain sales and trading market share in different sectors, as the great deleveraging drive of 2012 gets under way.
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Europe’s leaders aren’t giving the currency what it needs: reform, fiscal discipline and international support.
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It is hard to be optimistic about 2012. But much of the bad news is reflected in prices and a confluence of factors could yet provide support for equity markets and other risky assets.
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Banks often end up with assets that you would not expect. It’s a phenomenon that is clearly on the rise as borrowers struggle to pay back their loans.
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Russia’s capital markets remain upbeat, despite negative forecasts from the IMF. Amid the eurozone crisis, market players see an opportunity for the country to prove itself as a developed and reliable financial centre. Bankers, investors and issuers discuss what needs to happen next.
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How can the dollar rise in value? By sending it to the moon. Rich Jurek, a former PR executive at Northern Trust, has launched a virtual museum of $2 bills that have been flown into space – with some of those bills valued in the thousands, if not tens of thousands, of dollars at auction. Astronauts and cosmonauts often took the rare $2 bills on their space voyages for good luck. At Jurek’s Jefferson Space Museum, named after the president that appears on the notes, there are eight such bills. The most valuable is one once owned by Gene Cernan, who travelled with the bill on three space journeys, including a moon landing with Apollo 17 in 1972.
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Bankers and corporate treasurers discuss what they are looking for from their relationships and the challenges of funding, the eurozone, Basle III and Sepa.
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Historians will judge 2011 as a year of crisis. Will 2012 be worse, more of the same, or an unexpected pick-up in the world’s economic fortunes? As politicians, business leaders and bankers gather in Davos for the World Economic Forum, we assess the risk factors in an increasingly fragile global economy and market.
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IMF senior economist Manmohan Singh has become something of a celebrity since the summer. Several commentators have seized on his recent writings on collateralized lending, rehypothecation and the shadow banking system to make the case that the downfall of the financial system stems from the overleveraged, unregulated, off-balance-sheet shadow banking system. What Singh is saying, however, is that the shadow banking system is a necessary part of the monetary universe, and therefore something that regulators and policymakers must thoroughly understand if they are to have any success in improving economic performance. In an exclusive interview, Euromoney spoke to Singh as he prepared to celebrate Christmas in Washington DC.
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When, in December, Brazil withdrew its IOF tax on foreign investments in Brazilian equities many breathed a sigh of relief – not just for the marginal benefits that the removal will have on the poorly performing Bovespa, but because it could be seen as the end of the currency wars. The rapid appreciation of emerging market currencies had led Brazil to introduce a range of capital controls aimed at stemming the capital inflows that pushed the real to $1.50.
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So long as Asian markets remain risk-on bets to global portfolio managers, capital will continue to flee when things get bad elsewhere.
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Russia’s capital markets face a difficult future. Even if the will for change is there, it will be a long and difficult process.
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Cost of protection under scrutiny as demand for risk transfer grows.
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Will Europe’s leaders do enough to convince banks to finance its problem sovereigns through an ECB-led carry trade?
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A look at 2011’s investment-banking business makes grim reading for banks fearing a further decline this year.
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Compensation levels in the US show that most bank CEOs have yet to learn the meaning of the word restraint.
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Issuance selection for 2012 starts to line up; Global names look to HK for Chinese capital
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CNH volatility as currency expectations fade; China hits back with CNH-boosting policies
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Scarce collateral threatens funding; New systems complex and expensive
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Depreciation eases concern over speculation; Internationalization might pressure euro
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JPMorgan still top earner; Nomura fee income falls by 34%
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ECB lets banks delever in orderly fashion; Bank bond issues might be scarce this year
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Prices ‘irrational’; profitability questionable; Much depends on avoiding European contagion
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Rest of region outpaces traditional leader; Poor IPO performance blamed
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Focus on asset allocation; Stockpickers punished by macro
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Australian banks ‘miss broader point’; Some blame issuers, others bookrunners
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As the European bank-funding crisis pushes banks to fund themselves ever shorter-term, concerns are growing that collateral, the lifeblood of all secured borrowing, is running out. Can the shadow banking system ride to the rescue?
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Brazil is one of the largest and fastest growing emerging markets for investment banking. And the locals are coming out on top. The lesson for other emerging markets, they say, is to neutralize international banks’ claims over distribution to institutional investors.
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Controls boosting black market and run on banks; Venezuela-style parallel currency feared
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Brazil and Mexico got off to a good start on the first trading day of 2012 by both coming to the international bond markets. The success of the new $2 billion United Mexican States 10-year bond and the reopening of Brazil’s 2021s proved the availability of liquidity for international Latin America debt issuance. However, despite the success of these two sovereign deals there is no guarantee that liquidity will be available for lesser credits and other structures and currencies.
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The era of global investment banking is coming to an end. But financial trade involving and between developing markets will continue to grow. This gives a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to firms based in those markets to build not just leading domestic franchises but also ones that can compete on a much broader scale. Which emerging market investment banks are best placed to take it?
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Merges EM fixed income with FX; Shooter in, Weidmann out.
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Banks weigh shuttering ECM as volumes collapse; Much depends on UniCredit deal
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Reputational risk of not calling evaporates; Investors shun aggressive terms
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Mary MacLeod jumped companies and cultures to join ICBC International as deputy CEO – and became the most powerful foreign banker in China, with an eye on global dominance. The pressure is on, but MacLeod isn’t showing it... yet.
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Leading companies from Greater China continue to dominate Euromoney’s best-managed companies in Asia survey, according to almost 150 analysts who cover the region. China Telecom wins the overall category for the third year in succession, but it extends its lead considerably this year, doubling its share of the vote from 7.9% to 16.5%.
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Bank collapse weighs on fiscal health; Crisis spills over to Latvia
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TurkDex introduces exchange-traded options; ISE head steps down
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New government appointments in Saudi Arabia have sparked hopes that the Kingdom might adopt policies more oriented towards the private sector and foreign investment.
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In the words of a recent recruit – it’s the biggest bank you’ve never heard of. If you’re an investment banker in Russia, or even Turkey and Poland, that’s about to change. But can Sberbank, propelled by its acquisition of Troika Dialog, get anywhere close to fulfilling its potential?
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With developed markets stagnant, emerging nations hold the globe’s growth prospects. But can expansion in investment banking revenue in Russia keep up with Brazil or China?
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Hires Dubai Credit Suisse team; CEE special situations push
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The shadow of economic gloom has fallen over output, while Basle III is playing havoc with the rulebook for funding. Success relies on access to US dollars, and losses will drive up prices – unless the rules can be changed or new players join the market
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In a society obsessed with maximizing profit, Muhammad Yunus, Nobel Peace Prize winner and pioneer of microfinance through Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, has a new goal: to get business and finance to take off its ‘profit-maximizing glasses’ and think about its role in society instead