Euromoney Country Risk
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Euromoney Country RiskThere is seemingly no easing of risk for the two countries, despite the anticipated third-quarter economic improvement.
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Euromoney Country RiskInvestors beware – countries in the region have been downgraded in Euromoney’s country risk survey this year.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney asked its panellists to rescore Lebanon’s risks in the aftermath of the port tragedy on August 4, with investors left pondering what’s next for a country now desperately in need of aid and finance for reconstruction.
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Euromoney Country RiskAnalysts can see through the economic and fiscal shock to observe a country with its underlying strengths intact.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe country is showing one of the more concerning trends among Asia’s emerging markets as politics and economics combine to increase investor risks.
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Euromoney Country RiskEl Salvador dives, while Panama copes as trade buckles, remittances drop and fiscal pressures intensify.
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Euromoney’s survey shows the pandemic crisis is having both predictable and unexpected effects on economic, political and structural indicators as the world faces the biggest investor shock in living memory.
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Protectionism is undermining an otherwise moderate global outlook as growth continues, labour markets tighten and geopolitical crises calm.
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Investor safety has come under close scrutiny since June, resulting in a small but discernible decline in the global average risk score, halting a four-quarter improving trend.
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Global risk subsided in the first half of the year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, with confidence in Europe maintained and commodity producers benefiting from better terms of trade. Yet with US interest rates rising, and Brexit, Russia and protectionism risks prevailing, investor prospects have more recently become uncertain for the remainder of 2018.
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The risks of investing in developed countries eased in Q3 2017 due to strong economic growth, according to economists and other experts. Several large emerging markets (EMs) also became safer as volatility eased worldwide.
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Euromoney’s latest Country Risk Survey shows a gradual rebalancing of risk scores this year, as the aftershocks of the global banking and sovereign debt crises wear off, political risks tied to the European electoral cycle fade, and capital access improves for EMs.
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Euromoney Country RiskIt won the Euros, it won Eurovision – now it is time to win back its lost investment grades.
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Euromoney Country RiskConfidence in the oil producer is wavering as a bank crisis unfolds.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney’s country risk survey shows political risk rising in 64 countries this year. The march of populism is a key factor investors must consider before chasing tempting returns, but there are many others to guard against.
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Euromoney Country RiskA stronger yen-won exchange rate underlines Japan’s perception of safety with Seoul now plunged into a crisis, awaiting elections and wary of tensions escalating on the Korean peninsula.
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Euromoney Country RiskTheresa May’s decision to call a snap general election to increase her Conservative government’s majority has generated a positive reaction in the markets, but does not guarantee a more favourable investor climate.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower’s gradually improving risk profile could see it overtake Brazil and Turkey before too long.
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Euromoney Country RiskEgypt’s fall from grace is one of the more noteworthy of recent years.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney’s survey experts continue to downgrade the borrower, disagreeing with the president’s claims there is no justification for it.
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Euromoney Country RiskGreece must find a way to secure more aid from its creditors, but is caught in the crossfire between the IMF defending its pleas for debt relief and European policymakers insisting on repayment. The outcome is likely to be messy given the preponderance of elections in Europe this year, and a sense of déjà vu by kicking the can further down the road.
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Euromoney Country RiskIn Q4 2016, Greece’s ECR score took another turn for the worse and declined by 0.27 points, dropping to 113th in the country risk rankings. This was a result of lower regulatory environment and overall demographic assessments, but most notably declining debt indicator scores. ECR asks two experts what the wider implications are for the eurozone.
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Euromoney Country RiskGeert Wilders’ Eurosceptic-populist Freedom Party might win the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Yet the prospect of him forming a government is low, preventing political risk from overshadowing economic and fiscal strengths.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe country has disappointed investors by revealing undisclosed liabilities, which is underlining how African borrowers must be treated with caution.
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Euromoney Country RiskLeaping into tier three, the country is on course to regain the rating it lost four years ago.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe rating agencies still won’t budge as the two countries’ risk scores diverge.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower is on its knees, crippled by a huge debt burden and in need of an external lifeline. Only an IMF deal can improve its fortunes.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney Country Risk shows global risk rising, as leading economists and political experts revise their views on asset safety.
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Euromoney Country RiskIts risk score is still improving, but it should not be ignored the borrower is still an acute-risk, tier-five option, a year on from the elections.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower is on shakier ground as its ability to refinance debt is questioned.
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Euromoney Country RiskGeorgia’s overall ECR score has been rising steadily throughout 2016. It improved by more than one point in the third quarter of the year, scoring 44.97, up from 43.88 in the previous quarter.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe fall in the currency could have repercussions for investor safety, extending the downward trend in its country risk score.
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Euromoney Country RiskAfter a change of administration and the continuity of a four-year IMF package, which includes much-needed reforms and austerity measures, the country seems to be on the right track.
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Euromoney Country RiskPolitical turmoil is heightening investor risk and will likely narrow the risk score differential with Japan, but a strong macro-fiscal situation should not be overlooked.
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Euromoney Country RiskMexico has climbed two positions in Euromoney’s latest quarter results, ranking 37th out of 186 monitored countries, but the new US presidency has analysts worried.
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Euromoney Country RiskInvestor risk has been rising this year with fears over Brexit, China, the oil price slump, eurozone debts and global conflict weighing heavily on portfolio decision-making. The shock impact of the Republican victory has made the picture even murkier and sent assets into a tailspin.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe October elections did not deliver the shock investors were bracing themselves for when anti-government protests took place earlier in the year – easing the risks and endorsing Iceland’s credentials for a credit rating upgrade based on its improving macro-fiscal profile.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe political chaos, which left the country without a government for 10 months after two election rounds, seems to be finally contained as a new minority government is in the making.
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Euromoney Country RiskAlthough the CIS is learning to adjust to low oil prices, the recovery is slow, the political risks complex, and with fiscal deficits widening living standards are failing to keep pace with other emerging markets.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe country is gradually improving its position in the ECR rankings – unlike several of its neighbours.
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The calming of the political shock of Brexit, with oil prices now receiving Opec support, is preventing global risks from worsening, yet with a referendum looming in Italy, elections in the US and Europe to come, not to mention frail banks and several countries mired in difficulties, it might be the calm before another global storm.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe sovereign borrower still struggles to convince the experts as the elections draw near.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe decision to reassign Hungary’s investment grade will bring delight to Budapest, bringing the sovereign borrower correctly in line with Romania, but S&P needs to take note – Euromoney’s country risk survey is shining the spotlight on another country that is closely aligned.
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Euromoney Country RiskContinuing engagement with the IMF is a positive sign, but it’s a long way back as the economic, political and security risks are still sky-high.
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Euromoney Country RiskPoland’s declining risk score trend in Euromoney’s survey signals the rating agency is lagging experts in the field.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower will not challenge Indian safety for the foreseeable future, but faith in the emerging market (EM) is justified by its improving risk score.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe southern African country’s reliance on copper and recent disorderly elections have seen increased instability in the region, potentially adding to the deterioration in its ECR scores.
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Euromoney Country RiskThere is no need to panic, but the government’s new budget strategy puts the fiscal consolidation plans out of kilter and is signalling there might be trouble ahead.
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While the focus has been on how Italy must resolve its banking sector problems, investors should also be keeping an eye on the risks lurking elsewhere in Europe.
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Euromoney Country RiskUncertainty is increasing for peso assets as the fight for the White House heats up. Even a victory for Hillary Clinton comes with reservations attached, demonstrating how it is not just the possibility of Donald Trump winning that is ringing alarm bells.
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Country-by-country assessments of Europe’s banking sector show that risks are at new highs, as the financial services industry struggles to cope with the aftershocks of the 2007/08 crisis. Resolving the Italian bank crisis is key to how it will all pan out.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe swift formation of a new government and the opportunities created by the pound’s fall have quietened the doomsayers. But risk experts have downgraded their views on the economic outlook and government stability after the referendum, with so much that is still unknown.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe signing of a ceasefire agreement ending five decades of civil war is nothing short of monumental, but laying down the weapons will not fully resolve the issues and will most likely lead to fiscal repercussions with the economy already under pressure.
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Euromoney Country RiskThree years on from securing a bailout, the island nation is still addressing the fallout. Yet the economy is growing, political continuity is assured and credit rating agencies are playing catch-up.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe UK’s economic and structural ECR scores are holding up well despite the possibility that its people will vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week. The strength of the sovereign’s outlook means that if the UK did vote to leave, it could quickly recover from the ensuing drop in its risk score, claim several experts this week.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower’s prospects are still failing to improve, despite decent GDP growth, as political and structural concerns preoccupy the risk experts.
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Euromoney Country RiskFour months after a new coalition was formed, the economy is brightening, but Croatia remains mired in a political crisis weighing on its country risk rating.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower is on a trend decline amid uncertainty about the outcome of early elections in July. It means New Zealand is looking the safer bet, despite its slightly lower ECR score and inferior credit rating.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney’s country risk survey shows the safety of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) issuers is once again in question, as economies flounder, debts spiral and capital access tightens.
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Euromoney Country RiskIt seems an appropriate time for the Asian borrower to regain its full complement of investment-grade ratings as it becomes safer in Euromoney’s country risk survey.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower is beginning to shine with the presidential race guaranteeing a pro-market candidate winning and the economy improving due to increased copper-mining capacity.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney’s risk survey successfully predicted the move to investment grade for the Philippines in 2013, and it is once again highlighting other sovereign borrowers – in particular Hungary and Paraguay – with prospects for a similar upgrade.
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Euromoney Country RiskA plunging country risk score illustrates how the problems are still mounting for Africa’s largest economy.
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Euromoney Country RiskThey’re cheering in Bratislava as changing country-risk perceptions make Slovakia the safer option.
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Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.
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Euromoney Country RiskMalaysia has been hit by political scandal and economic woes, but ECR experts believe it should begin to recover this year.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe sovereign is still high risk, but is improving in Euromoney’s country risk survey, underpinned by the recent election results.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe sovereign improved last year, but experts have doubts over its economic prospects, and there are political risks from possible snap elections in the summer.
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Euromoney Country RiskLjubljana is a happier place these days, overcoming the banking and political crisis weighing on its prospects. Investors should take note: Slovenia is one of several smaller European countries making a comeback.
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Euromoney Country RiskPolitical tension and violence have marred Côte d'Ivoire for decades, but peaceful elections and an improving economy have raised expectations.
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Euromoney Country RiskMoody’s has followed S&P’s lead by downgrading the borrower to junk status in line with its Euromoney country risk score. Other oil producers are at risk, the survey predicts.
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Euromoney Country RiskUkraine finished 2015 with a slightly improved score year-on-year, despite seeing turbulence on all fronts in the ECR scoring categories throughout the year. Its score dipped in the fourth quarter of 2015, but ECR experts see some reasons for hope amid the gloom.
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Euromoney Country RiskAgainst the backdrop of China’s economic troubles, US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, depressed commodity prices and the refugee crisis affecting Europe, political risks increased for numerous sovereign borrowers in 2015.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe Baltic state leapfrogged both sovereigns in the global ratings last year, making its credit ratings outdated.
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Euromoney Country RiskPoland’s sovereign bond spreads are in turmoil, after a shock downgrade by Standard & Poor’s (S&P). The move follows a sharp drop in its political risk score in the latest Euromoney Country Risk (ECR) survey.
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Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.
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Euromoney Country RiskWhy is Fitch so reticent to upgrade the sovereign when country risk experts and other credit rating agencies say it is overdue?
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Euromoney Country RiskOf all the frontier markets competing for inward investment, the one-party state is still one of the more attractive prospects.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe likelihood of fresh elections is delaying the structural reforms necessary to prevent the debt burden from snowballing.
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Euromoney Country RiskDepressed oil prices are sending shockwaves through the Kingdom as it looks at ways to mitigate the macro-fiscal implications.
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Euromoney Country RiskEuromoney Country Risk experts believe drastic change is in the pipeline for Argentina — but its newly elected government has a fight on its hands to push through economic reforms.
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Euromoney Country RiskInvestors snapped up Angola’s $1.5 billion Eurobond debut this month, and yet the sovereign borrower’s country-risk score has plunged, putting it among the world’s worst default risks.
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Euromoney Country RiskAccess to capital leads to a four-place rise in the rankings for Denmark; improved scores in other economic categories contribute to the shift in Q3 results.
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Euromoney Country RiskA new government emphasizing Hungarian-style nationalist, unorthodox policies with increased public spending has raised uncertainty over Poland’s risk profile. However, the sovereign borrower is in a strong position and is less indebted than Hungary.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe borrower’s fundamentals are pointing to a downgrade that would chalk up a trio of Brics on junk status based on S&P’s metrics.
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Euromoney Country RiskIreland’s triple-B rating is out of line with its improving ranking in Euromoney’s country risk survey. Even Fitch and S&P might need to take action if the trend continues.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe sovereign has climbed another three places in the global rankings compiled by Euromoney Country Risk, and is keeping pace with Bulgaria and Romania.
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China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015. With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.
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Euromoney Country RiskReforms are expected to gather pace in 2016, boosting the country’s investment prospects.
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Euromoney Country RiskFurther falls in the sovereign’s risk score signal the possibility of a credit rating downgrade.