Immigration risk is troubling for the EU and southeastern Europe
Investors beware – countries in the region have been downgraded in Euromoney’s country risk survey this year.
The Covid-19 crisis has raised the stakes worldwide, plunging the global economy into recession and creating unanticipated fiscal pressures for many countries already struggling with domestic problems, geopolitics and global trade wars.
Consequently, analysts have downgraded Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta, Romania and Turkey in Euromoney’s risk survey.
Greece is the main exception, but lying 60th in the global rankings with a legacy of debt and another economic downturn to endure, it remains one of the riskier EU member states, worse off than Italy or Spain.
For some, such as Turkey, there are domestic risks to consider, which Euromoney has detailed previously.
The lira is on the backfoot again because of concerns about policymaking and institutional risks, two factors that have been consistently downgraded (among others) in the risk survey.
Meddling in the central bank’s independence is scaring investors, prompting both a current-account deficit, underpinned by increased lending, and portfolio outflows, with capital withdrawn, resulting in the central bank depleting its FX reserves to prop-up an ailing currency.
First factor However, there are also three themes with cross-country – indeed, region-wide implications – putting southeastern Europe under the radar, and all three are interconnected.