Portugal’s declining risks should return its complement of investment grades
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Portugal’s declining risks should return its complement of investment grades

It won the Euros, it won Eurovision – now it is time to win back its lost investment grades.


Hat-trick: The smoke is clearing for Portugal to add to its Euros and
Eurovision success

Country risk experts have become gradually more confident about Portugal’s investor prospects in recent years, despite the political risks tied to a minority Socialist Party government relying on hard left allies.

Its risk score has increased since exiting the bailout it received in 2011, with the return to international markets notably improving the capital access score.

It hasn’t been an easy ride, but Portugal is now in a much better place, with risk experts now encouraged by the economy recovering.

Always a favourite of European, especially British, visitors, a record year for tourism inflows and spending is expected this year, taking full advantage of its reputation for safety.

GDP increased by a cool 1% on a seasonally adjusted, real-terms basis in Q1 2017, levering the year-on-year growth rate up to 2.8%, by latching onto Spain’s continuing strong growth and the wider upturn in Europe.

“This makes it very likely that growth for the whole of 2017 will be between 2.0% and 2.5%,” says Miriam Montañez, an economist at BBVA Research.

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