ECR survey results Q1 2020: China, US, Italy among 80 countries downgraded by risk analysts
Euromoney’s survey shows the pandemic crisis is having both predictable and unexpected effects on economic, political and structural indicators as the world faces the biggest investor shock in living memory.
Not since the financial crisis in 2008 has the global economy been plunged into such turmoil and uncertainty, with sharp falls in asset prices and volatility in oil and other key commodity prices occurring just as Euromoney was conducting its latest quarterly risk survey.
Among the 174 countries featured, 80 have been downgraded, with Argentina and Lebanon among the biggest fallers following their selective defaults.
A further 27 are unchanged from December, but many of these were already very high risk options predominantly situated in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.
Euromoney’s unique crowd-sourcing risk survey is a responsive guide to the changing perceptions of participating analysts in both the financial and non-financial sectors, focusing on a range of key economic, political and structural factors affecting investor returns.
The survey is conducted quarterly among several hundred economists and other experts, with the results compiled and aggregated, along with a measure of capital access and sovereign debt statistics, to provide total risk scores and rankings.
Although the first survey of 2020 shows far fewer countries upgraded, there are still 67 that analysts consider to be safer options in comparison with their standings in the final quarter of 2019.