Coverage of the unfolding crisis
...and how to fix it
Thursday, February 21, 2013
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by Sid Verma
However, Intrade traffic has collapsed in recent months since the end-November crackdown by the US government, prompted by allegations over improper betting. After hitting 287,000 unique visitors in November, Intrade traffic currently fails to meet ComScore reporting thresholds.
Intrade continues to operate in European markets. Nevertheless, the jury has always been out over the extent to which liquidity in European market trading is sufficient to generate a statistically significant prediction of market sentiment.
A key question dominating European markets is the re-election prospect of Italys Silvio Berlusconi, which threatens to redraw the eurozones political map, with analysts grappling for data points, including Intrade. Carl Wolfenden, exchange operations manager at Intrade, told Euromoney via email that there has been fairly low trading volumes in the Italian election markets but enough to generate fairly reliable predictive information. A total of 2,249 shares in total have been traded the equivalent of about $22,000 changing hands. As Wolfenden concedes there has been a drop in volumes in all markets following our withdrawal from the US market at the end of 2012.
By comparison, as of late-October, there were over 4 million shares traded on Obama and Romney (evenly split), with over 1.4 million shares in open interest between them.
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