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However, Intrade traffic has collapsed in recent months
since the end-November crackdown by the US government,
prompted by allegations over improper betting. After hitting
287,000 unique visitors in November, Intrade traffic currently
fails to meet ComScore reporting thresholds.
Intrade continues to operate in European markets.
Nevertheless, the jury has always been out over the extent to
which liquidity in European market trading is sufficient to
generate a statistically significant prediction of market
A key question dominating European markets is the
re-election prospect of Italys Silvio Berlusconi, which
threatens to redraw the
eurozones political map, with analysts grappling for
data points, including Intrade.
Carl Wolfenden, exchange operations manager at Intrade, told
Euromoney via email that there has been fairly low
trading volumes in the Italian election markets but enough to
generate fairly reliable predictive information. A total
of 2,249 shares in total have been traded the
equivalent of about $22,000 changing hands. As Wolfenden
concedes there has been a drop in volumes in all markets
following our withdrawal from the US market at the end of
By comparison, as of late-October, there were over 4 million
shares traded on Obama and Romney (evenly split), with over 1.4
million shares in open interest between them.
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