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April 2004

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • If Banca Intesa follows through on its interest in Garanti Bankasi, Turkey's banking market and the general economy could receive a big boost. David Judson reports.
  • Its bonds have traditionally traded wider than Russia's, but with its potential for a diversified manufacturing economy and a resurgence in sovereign debt issuance, Ukraine is winning renewed interest from emerging-market funds. Nick Parsons reports.
  • With volume in the EMEA equity capital markets up 132% this quarter compared with the first quarter of 2003, according to Dealogic, European equity capital markets appear to be in rude health. The IPO market in particular, which raised $7 billion through 39 deals, is at its strongest since the fourth quarter of 2001.
  • Americans have been having a lot of fun with fundrace.org, a new website that searches the public record for political donations. Euromoney, of course, was most interested in gifts from US bank CEOs. George W Bush came out well on top, garnering the maximum $2,000 donation from almost every CEO on the list. But there were surprises among the Democrats. Dick Gephardt pulled in more donations than any other candidate and Howard Dean got none at all.
  • As Putin's rule becomes more established, the political trend in Russia is firmly authoritarian and centralist. But that is not necessarily a barrier to liberal economic reforms.As Putin's rule becomes more established, the political trend in Russia is firmly authoritarian and centralist. But that is not necessarily a barrier to liberal economic reforms. Ben Aris reports.
  • CEO, Banco Popular
  • Results of Euromoney's biggest ever credit research poll indicate that the development of relationships with continental European investors is crucial to success.
  • Last month, at Hong Kong's biggest party, the annual Rugby Sevens festival, an unusual trend emerged among Hong Kong's investment banks. The softer side of those hard-nosed masters of the universe was on display, manifested in the décor of their hospitality suites.
  • The days when unselective punts on the Moscow bourse could bring triple-digit returns are probably over. Analysts now point to more modest gains from cautious trawls of smaller companies, private-equity funds and real estate. Ben Aris reports.
  • With increasing competition in the covered bond market, Pfandbrief issuers are working hard to retain their pre-eminence. But as the Landesbanken prepare to lose their state guarantees, Pfandbriefe are becoming a crucial financing tool. Mark Brown reports.
  • Liquidity poll April 2004
  • The west should beware - it is about to be invaded by hordes from the east. They are not benefit-seeking immigrants but rather bargain-hunting entrepreneurs. Soon they might even be buying your bank. And in Turkey, local-born bankers with western skills are determined to drag their country into the modern capital markets era. Julian Evans profiles some of the leading eastern European entrepreneurs who are taking regional finance to a global level and Metin Munir looks at the pioneers seeking to pull Turkish banking out of stagnation.
  • Bank reform and the development of a properly structured mortgage market have been on the Russian agenda for years. Only now does implementation look set to begin. Ben Aris reports.
  • A ground-breaking collateralized debt obligation offering a fixed level of recoveries targets investors who want a simpler structure.
  • US treasury bond yields caught out many investors in the first quarter, tightening sharply below 4% in February and once more wrong-footing many who had been expecting that they would widen.
  • Money will, of course, remain cheap. Indeed, the forward market now forecasts that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this year. But it has been cheap for a long time. It has already driven massive amounts into equities and reduced volatility to historical lows. In early January, the options put-to-call ratio reached levels indicating that no-one wanted to take out any insurance against equity markets falling. However, the recent turn in these indicators suggests that a wall of worry is now being built.
  • Customer pressure for a wider choice of top-performing products is driving banks into doing what was once unthinkable - selling their competitors' wares. But they are also finding this trend towards open architecture is encouraging them to focus on their strengths and improve their own performance. Helen Avery reports.
  • A new central bank governor with a firmer grip on exchange rate policy, a modest upturn in growth and a respectable equity market performance have increased confidence in Egypt's economy. But privatizations and banking reform are major uncompleted tasks. Nigel Dudley reports.
  • Key French brokerages are remodelling their equities divisions in an effort to build a pan-European business. And the solution that BNP Paribas has found is the most radical. But rivals say its new joint venture is an admission of failure. Peter Koh reports.
  • Leverage in the emerging markets is now approaching an all-time high, according to fund managers and sell-side analysts. But the structure of investment patterns in this asset class means a crash is unlikely. Felix Salmon reports.
  • Moody's introduced its baskets in 1999. As hybrid volumes increased and deals got more complicated, it refined them last November.
  • The inflation-linked market has unexpected pockets of demand, few natural issuers and an unusually close relationship between derivatives and bonds. But it works. Banks now need to work out where the next set of structural demand will come from and how to position themselves to profit from it. Katie Martin reports
  • As BNP Paribas and Exane were preparing to unveil their joint venture plans, Crédit Agricole was deciding what to do with the equities businesses it had picked up along with Crédit Lyonnais last year. Crédit Agricole already had a strong brokerage business in the form of CAI Cheuvreux, which has the highest-ranked (13) pan-European research of any French broker, according to the July 2003 Thomson Extel Focus France Survey. Merging Chevreux with Crédit Lyonnais' weaker European brokerage business would have made little sense, as the overlap would have been too great. One French analyst says: "A good merger is one in which one plus one is more than two; Chevreux plus Crédit Lyonnais would probably be worth less than one."
  • Citigroup Private Bank has signed up golf legend Gary Player to act as an informal ambassador. As part of the multi-year endorsement, Player will represent the bank on his travels playing championship golf, and will "help to strengthen the firm's long-term relationships with some of the world's most successful families".
  • The capital-raising supermarkets available to companies in most advanced economies are a long way off for Turkey. The shabby state of capital markets is in large part an outcome of years of public sector financial chaos. Metin Munir reports.
  • A group of Harvard-trained physicists and astrophysicists are trying their hand at running a hedge fund in the US. Rather aptly they've called their firm Financial Labs and launched their fund at the end of last month. The five Harvard graduates set up their firm in July last year. Since then they have been developing a technological infrastructure that they feel differentiates them from other funds. Aaron Sokasian, co-founder of Financial Labs, says: "Our approach is extremely objective and numerically based. We don't really use any kind of discretion."
  • This has been an exciting few weeks for Commerzbank. First it smiled its way through yet more poor results, while promising better times ahead. Days later, it sealed a merger with a retail bank. Then it awarded such low bonuses to securities staff that it risked losing talent. Here, senior executives discuss the bank's strategy, prospects for consolidation and the trouble with bonuses. Katie Martin reports
  • Several fund managers are taking advantage of the increased interest in currency markets by setting up high-margin currency hedge funds. But before they invest in such products, investors should examine the offerings closely. Julie Dalla-Costa reports.
  • Russia's dependence on energy exports - and high energy prices - is growing. The government wants to play a bigger part in fostering this golden goose and seems to have found a subtle way of doing so without renationalization. Ben Aris reports.
  • www.breakingviews.com