The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site. Please see our Subscription Terms and Conditions.


All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2021 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.
Opinion

What was that about ceteris paribus?

“Global credit spreads are tight and will likely stay tight as long as our forecast for a global soft landing proves true and global liquidity doesn’t suddenly evaporate.”

The new year brings a flood of hopes, dreams, wishes and expectations. For those whose job it is to predict which of these will materialize and which will not it is time to step up to the fence, swing a leg over and get comfortable.

Credit analysts are the soothsayers of the financial world and as such it is their task to tell the rest of us what’s going to happen over the coming months. Unfortunately, with capital markets being the mercurial, organic entities that they are, this is practically impossible. Generally what can happen will, and what one thinks will happen won’t. Unless it does.

Consequently, analysts’ reports are of necessity fairly murky. No one likes to be proved wrong, and most predictions will be somewhat qualified. Pick of the bunch this year is a quote from the credit outlook report published by Swiss bank UBS. It reads: “Global credit spreads are tight and will likely stay tight as long as our forecast for a global soft landing proves true and global liquidity doesn’t suddenly evaporate.”

So as long as all the stuff that will keep spreads tight doesn’t change, then all things being equal and barring any unforeseen circumstances we can expect spreads to remain relatively tight.

You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.

SUBSCRIBE ONLINE TODAY

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually

FREE 7 DAY TRIAL

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors

LOGIN NOW

Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree