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Opinion

A super-soft landing still looks most likely

       

Nasdaq is still collapsing and there are worries that the US economy could be recession bound as the tech investment boom ends. But I remain optimistic. I reckon the global economy is in for a super-soft landing to sub-3% growth in 2001. Oil prices will stay around $25 a barrel and global inflation will fall, boosting real incomes. Risk appetite will recover. The mini-bear market is almost over.


Last February, I predicted that the next shift in the US economy would be to lower growth and low inflation. This would be volatile for investors and disastrous for dot com investors. But it wouldn't herald a global equity bear market or global deflation. Indeed, it would raise the curtain on a more sustainable growth rate for the US and the world.


The new economy - including the impact of technology, globalization and rationalization - vaccinates the world against high inflation with the serum of competition.



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