September 2011
Real estate survey 2011: Can commercial real estate keep going up?
Before the US sovereign downgrade by sent the risk-on trade into a decline, commercial real estate had made big progress in cleaning up its act. Valuations are up, inventory is coming to market and new sources of funding are flowing. But will stalling economic growth knock the market off course? Joti Mangat reports.
THREE YEARS ON from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, it is safe to say that the deluge of commercial real estate (CRE) bargains that investors had expected from stricken banks in the US and Europe will not materialize. Although the stand-off between balance-sheet lenders and potential distressed investors has eased over the past year (with several important portfolio divestments already executed and more coming to market) industry-wide recapitalization and deleveraging on both sides of the Atlantic have prevented forced selling and restricted the flow of dirt-cheap opportunities. Against the backdrop of continued monetary and fiscal easing, renewed risk appetite among banks and institutional investors has emerged to tackle the refinancing challenge.
Ray Torto, global chief economist at CBRE in New York, says that...
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