September 1998
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LATEST ARTICLES
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World stock and futures exchanges are in a turmoil of change and uncertainty. Fusion and cross-border linkages are in the air. Regulation to take account of this rapid change lags far behind, and stateless, borderless trading facilities may soon make it impossible. Remember, the only reason for an exchange to exist is to reduce transaction costs, argues Ruben Lee. Any new step that doesn't will end in tears.
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It's a measure of the turmoil in world markets that not a single bank was at first prepared to supply the forfaiting rates used by Euromoney in its calculation of these country-risk rankings. So fast were things changing that even these usually stable indicators became too volatile. Banks supplied them on request on a day-by-day basis to clients an indication of how difficult trade finance, the lubricant of the real economy, was becoming.
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When Hotman Hutapea, Indonesia's premier bankruptcy advocate, presented his first case to the new commercial court on September 1, he set telephones ringing in bank offices all over town. "Now they believe it," says one senior banker. "They see they'd better do a deal - or else."
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Ukraine has been pushed to the brink by Russia's financial turmoil and the government's resistance to reform. The treasury bill market needs restructuring or there will be default, equity trading has ground to a standstill, and foreign investors are counting the days until they can get their money out of the country. Theodore Kim reports.
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Banks in the Middle East and North Africa generally performed well in 1997 despite hits in the second half from falling oil prices and Asian economic turmoil. Even where oil economies have successfully diversified, though, 1998 looks like being a tougher prospect. Banks in the region will therefore need to look harder at consolidation and cost-cutting. Andrew Beikos and Anthony Christofides report.
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It finally happened. After lurching from crisis to crisis - muddling through with partial reforms and quick fixes - Russia has finally crashed out of orbit. So who is to blame? Ronan Lyons looks at the key actors in the drama. Who are the seven oligarchs and were they behind the decision to devalue? What was really happening in the governments of Chernomyrdin and Kiriyenko? And what was the role of the IMF and western investors?
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Foreign banks are trying to sell investment-banking services in Croatia but so far with limited success. Delays in state sell-offs and corporate restructuring aren't helping. By Charles Olivier.
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Brazilian banks continue to dominate our annual ranking of Latin America's biggest banks. But some smaller institutions top the ranking by capital, assets and profit growth, while Banespa has by far the highest return on equity. Data for the Latin 100 is supplied by Fitch IBCA.
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Russia's infamous "dark soul" is alive, if not well. In an article in a recent issue of Novaya Gazeta, Sergei Mavrodi, the architect of the MMM pyramid scheme that swindled millions of Russians out of their life savings, says that nothing would have persuaded him to invest in Russian government treasury bills (GKOs), which he calls "a low-tech version" of his own scam.
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The bad times are far from over for Hong Kong. The financial crisis that has engulfed Asia is continuing to put enormous pressure on the once-vibrant local banking sector. Profits are down and bad and doubtful loans have soared. But in spite of the deteriorating operating environment, bankers are scrambling to maximize existing sources of income and to identify new ones.
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Is it a correction rather than a crisis? Perhaps, but consider this sobering list of 31 crises, prepared by Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital. His conclusion? "A western equity market crash will complete this litany of disasters ... since [equities] are mispriced by most yardsticks and since their fundamentals are daily worsening."
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Mexican corporates are raring to go but the borrowing outlook is grim. International markets are expensive, the local banking sector weak. The big names can raise funds but may be hit because their customers are cash-strapped. By Matthew Doman.
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Imagine the volume of issuance if German mortgage banks were allowed to securitize their home loan portfolios. What if Germany's big commercial banks could turn their loan books into CLOs and sell them to bond and commercial paper investors? Well now they can. German banks will issue Dm20 billion in asset-backed securities this year. As Euan Hagger reports, the market should get much bigger.
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When their country was isolated by sanctions, South African banks had it easy. Now foreign competitors are eating away at their share of the most profitable business. Sam Swiss reports.
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Long, long ago, when half the world was ruled by men who still believed in state control of the economy, Poland took the gamble of letting the market decide the price of goods. That dose of shock therapy in 1989 became a model for eastern Europe. The man who imposed it became one of the region's leading economic thinkers. Now he is back at the helm of the Polish economy. James Rutter talks to Leszek Balcerowicz about history, movies and the trials of coalition government.
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The appointment of David Robins and Malcolm Le May as respectively chief executive and head of global corporate finance at ING Barings reunites the two former UBS management partners whose high profile should go some way to reassuring insiders and clients about their new employer's commitment to investment banking.
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What's behind Lehman Brothers' decision to form an executive committee? The news this August that the heads of the major businesses would join chief executive Richard Fuld in a six-member committee came four years after Lehman split from its marriage with American Express Bank. Ostensibly, the team is being set up to formulate strategy.
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European cartel watchdogs swooped on seven Austrian banks in June believing there was evidence of a price-fixing ring. Not so, say Austrian bankers, just an informal luncheon club. What's the truth? And what triggered the interest from Brussels? It's a story of Euro-politics, cut-throat competition, a little history and a tragic suicide. David Shirreff reports.
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Their mission is the same: to hunt down and execute mandates. They're all winners. Yet their tactics differ greatly, reflecting the varied cast of characters now reigning on Wall Street - tough New Yorkers, Cuban exiles, a laid-back Brazilian, an English lawyer, even a Senegalese photographer. Brian Caplen investigates the mix.
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From the Silk Road, to Basingstoke, to Buenos Aires, the HSBC Group has grown into one of the most formidable names in international banking. Its recent spurt of acquisitions - which have made it the most profitable bank in the world three years running - were masterminded by the workaholic Scotsman William Purves, who gave up the role of chairman this year. His long-time deputy, John Bond, is today the taipan of a bancassurance group that grew out of the old HongkongBank founded in 1865 in a diversification strategy that is looking wiser by the day.
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In an uncertain world, one thing is clear. Persistent rumours that a displeased or desperate Japan will cause financial mayhem by suddenly offloading its US government bond holdings is nonsense. This possibility is so universally reject by informed market participants that it's hard to see how it ever gained any credibility.
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Economists and academics will long ponder why east Asia's currencies have depreciated so much. Euromoney thinks it may have found the answer - perhaps each country is trying to outdo the others for the title of cheapest currency in Asia.
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Could it be true that Deutsche Bank was considering a bid for JP Morgan in mid-August? Deutsche was supposedly offering $175 a share in cash, 49% above the closing price the day before. But pooled accounting is forbidden by German law, so Deutsche's capital ratios would have fallen to an unsustainable and illegal level had the deal gone ahead. And Deutsche's recent history is hardly such as to endear Morgan's chief executive, Sandy Warner, and his senior staff to a link-up.
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On a lighter note, we say goodbye for the time being to our resident US banker, Herbie. Herbie first started writing home to Mom in 1969. A firm believer that friends are God's apology for relations, he has spent the last 28 years based in London, as far from his mother as possible, though every faithful month his letters home have kept her, and you, abreast of the latest financial happenings. In the process he has chronicled, mocked and satirized most of the key events in the life of the modern capital markets.
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Amidst all their other problems, just how well prepared are Japanese financial institutions for the millennium computer bug? After more than a year of debate and the odd testy exchange between banking officials and information officers across the Pacific some real evidence could soon be at hand.
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Poorly served under the communists, ignored in the nineties' frenzy of corporate activity, he's suddenly being courted by bankers across central and eastern Europe. Hail the consumer. James Rutter on the rise of the retail client.
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Is he Lehman Brothers' most well-born banker? Ajeya Singh will inherit the title 'Raja of Manda' from his father. That will make him quite possibly the world's only investment banking maharajah.
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Euromoney lost a great mentor and friend on September 1. Vere Harmsworth, the third Viscount Rothermere, died unexpectedly at 73.
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Type of deal: attempted purchase
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The market, like nature, is red in tooth and claw. It has no concept of ethics, morality or justice. Its agents are predatory and are concerned mainly with their own survival. They have no thought for the good of the system. That doesn't mean the market is bad or that it doesn't work. It means that present prescriptions for emerging economies do not reflect these realities. Nothing highlights more starkly the inappropriateness of the blind application of free market thinking to emerging markets more than the role of hedge funds. By Simon Brady.