September 1998
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Economists and academics will long ponder why east Asia's currencies have depreciated so much. Euromoney thinks it may have found the answer - perhaps each country is trying to outdo the others for the title of cheapest currency in Asia.
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What's behind Lehman Brothers' decision to form an executive committee? The news this August that the heads of the major businesses would join chief executive Richard Fuld in a six-member committee came four years after Lehman split from its marriage with American Express Bank. Ostensibly, the team is being set up to formulate strategy.
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Could it be true that Deutsche Bank was considering a bid for JP Morgan in mid-August? Deutsche was supposedly offering $175 a share in cash, 49% above the closing price the day before. But pooled accounting is forbidden by German law, so Deutsche's capital ratios would have fallen to an unsustainable and illegal level had the deal gone ahead. And Deutsche's recent history is hardly such as to endear Morgan's chief executive, Sandy Warner, and his senior staff to a link-up.
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The words "frying pan" and "fire" spring to mind. Sitting in his office overlooking the trading floor, Alexander Knaster, CSFB's Moscow president, discusses his move to Alfa Bank, where from October 4 he will take over the newly merged commercial and investment banking operation. Though troubled, CSFB remains the market leader in almost all areas of investment banking in Russia. Knaster's new employer, by contrast, was the house bank of one of Russia's weaker financial-industrial groups. Now it is being thrown into an ill-defined merger with Inkombank and the National Reserve Bank in a desperate bid to survive.
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Is it a correction rather than a crisis? Perhaps, but consider this sobering list of 31 crises, prepared by Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital. His conclusion? "A western equity market crash will complete this litany of disasters ... since [equities] are mispriced by most yardsticks and since their fundamentals are daily worsening."
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On a lighter note, we say goodbye for the time being to our resident US banker, Herbie. Herbie first started writing home to Mom in 1969. A firm believer that friends are God's apology for relations, he has spent the last 28 years based in London, as far from his mother as possible, though every faithful month his letters home have kept her, and you, abreast of the latest financial happenings. In the process he has chronicled, mocked and satirized most of the key events in the life of the modern capital markets.
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How do you wean crisis countries away from official bail-outs onto private funding? There has to be a way to reward borrowers for improved behaviour yet punish lenders for piling in indiscriminately. New lending models include contingent repos, sovereign default options and credit spread bonds. But will they catch on? James Smalhout reports.
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Mexican corporates are raring to go but the borrowing outlook is grim. International markets are expensive, the local banking sector weak. The big names can raise funds but may be hit because their customers are cash-strapped. By Matthew Doman.
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Last National Bank of Boot Hill, Moorgate, London EC2
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Brazilian banks continue to dominate our annual ranking of Latin America's biggest banks. But some smaller institutions top the ranking by capital, assets and profit growth, while Banespa has by far the highest return on equity. Data for the Latin 100 is supplied by Fitch IBCA.
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Their mission is the same: to hunt down and execute mandates. They're all winners. Yet their tactics differ greatly, reflecting the varied cast of characters now reigning on Wall Street - tough New Yorkers, Cuban exiles, a laid-back Brazilian, an English lawyer, even a Senegalese photographer. Brian Caplen investigates the mix.
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Eugene Black argues the case for an alternative method of funding the IMF that would enable it to tap the private markets and reduce the need to return to member states for additional funds.
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Imagine the volume of issuance if German mortgage banks were allowed to securitize their home loan portfolios. What if Germany's big commercial banks could turn their loan books into CLOs and sell them to bond and commercial paper investors? Well now they can. German banks will issue Dm20 billion in asset-backed securities this year. As Euan Hagger reports, the market should get much bigger.
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Silicon Valley investment bankers have one burning question: What's the next move for the "technology mafia" - the dozen or so influential hedge and mutual funds that turned technology issues into Wall Street's new blue-chip stocks?
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Poorly served under the communists, ignored in the nineties' frenzy of corporate activity, he's suddenly being courted by bankers across central and eastern Europe. Hail the consumer. James Rutter on the rise of the retail client.
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Only floating exchange rates will allow the world to steer between the Scylla of capital controls and the Charybdis of recurrent financial crisis and wealth destruction, argues Bernard Connolly.
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European cartel watchdogs swooped on seven Austrian banks in June believing there was evidence of a price-fixing ring. Not so, say Austrian bankers, just an informal luncheon club. What's the truth? And what triggered the interest from Brussels? It's a story of Euro-politics, cut-throat competition, a little history and a tragic suicide. David Shirreff reports.
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Vicious dogs and bottom-dwelling, scum-sucking creatures of the deep - and that's just what they call themselves. But don't be too unkind to the vulture funds hunting for deals in Asia, they are playing a useful role in bringing value back to a depressed continent. And they are not the only ones doing deals. Conglomerates are restructuring and western financial institutions are looking for partners. We profile a mixed bunch of Asia's top deal makers. Some are ex-soldiers, some are former consultants and analysts. One is even a leading Asian central banker
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The men charged with sorting out Korea's sickly, debt-laden corporate sector are making many of the right noises, but old habits are proving hard to break. A year after they went bust, Kia is still churning out cars and Jinro is still brewing the nation's favourite tipple. Jack Lowenstein reports on the dangerous brew of nationalism, legal failings and bureaucratic intransigence which is preventing Korea Inc from getting back on its feet.
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For a system that supposedly conquered the world in 1990, free-market capitalism doesn't look so good any more. After Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia, which of capitalism's self-appointed disciples will stumble next? And who is to blame? The track record has embarrassed all but hard-liners into thinking there might be a Third Way - between free capital flows with floating exchange rates and the dirigiste controls of the 1960s. Chile, China, James Tobin - they've all been held to ridicule for their batty market ideas. But today it's not just bleeding-hearts and socialists who are looking at their attempts more closely. Michelle Celarier reports.
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Pedro Luis Uriarte's timing on emerging markets seemed brilliant. The CEO of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, Spain's second largest bank by assets, scaled back in Asia and Russia ahead of the crises. But will his luck hold in Latin America? In the last three years BBV has invested $3 billion buying stakes in banks and financial institutions in 12 Latin countries with major deals in Brazil and Chile sown up recently. Uriarte, whose mantra is shareholder value, aims to compensate for lower margins in Europe by reaping higher returns in Latin America. If he succeeds, BBV may rank among the world's top 10 banks by market capitalization. But the risks are high. Since the emerging markets storm blew up, BBV's share price has fallen 25% and rating agencies have put it under review for a downgrade. In an interview with Brian Caplen, Uriarte is adamant that the bank's Latin earnings will be unaffected. He speaks about the bank's acquisition strategy in Europe, his management style, his relationship with his chairman, Emilio Ybarra, and his wish to retire before the mandatory age of 62 Uriarte is 55 and became CEO in 1994. He has worked at the bank since 1974 taking a four-year break in the early 1980s to be minister of economy and finance for the Basque regional government.
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Who is surprised by the savage way markets have punished politicians, bankers, speculators and economists? The structure of financial markets needs a rethink. Our cover story tears them apart as follows:
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You can't keep a good man down. So Andre Lee has set up his own firm, 01 Inc, in Seoul. Lee, who ran failed investment bank Peregrine's fixed-income side, is credited with single-handedly created the Asian debt markets. When Asia melted down, as did Lee's bonds and Peregrine, he looked much less visionary .
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When Germany's federal election takes place on September 27 the miracle of chancellor Helmut Kohl's winning in 1994 against all predictions won't be repeated. There are good reasons why. Germany's economy may be picking up, but domestic demand recovery is tentative. During 1997 the rebound was export-led, and although the domestic investment cycle is turning up, household spending remains flat at best. At 10.7% unemployment is still too high and much of the recent job creation has come from government-sponsored schemes, especially in the eastern Länder where Kohl's ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) remain deeply unpopular.
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Profits are down, salaries are being sliced, portfolios are moving into cash, buyers are getting choosy about the brokers they use. Is it all doom and gloom? Not if you're smart. Markets that were overbroked are losing the dross: that means new opportunities for firms with good counterparty risk. And research is getting better as brokers fight to sell their services to investors. Steven Irvine sketches in the background to the Euromoney/Global Investor 10th annual Asian broker survey.
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Savvy sovereign issuers are rethinking the use of trustees. By Christopher Stoakes
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Foreign banks are trying to sell investment-banking services in Croatia but so far with limited success. Delays in state sell-offs and corporate restructuring aren't helping. By Charles Olivier.
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Economic projections: Methodology
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"If anyone can rescue Liffe, he can." That seems to be the word on Brian Williamson, who in July put his initial reluctance to one side and agreed to become the London International Financial Futures & Options Exchange's first full-time - and salaried - chairman.
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Hank Paulson, appointed co-chairman and co-chief executive (to serve alongside Jon Corzine) of Goldman Sachs in June, is known for being intensely hard-working - although he says he has never prided himself on trying to work more hours a day than anyone else. A committed and active conservationist (along with his wife), he also likes to spend his holidays in the wild outdoors.