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April 2001

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  • In the first quarter of this year, the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 150 basis points. But Nasdaq is down 25%, most European equity markets have fallen 15% to 20% and even the Dow, which had been flat for two years, is now off 14% for the year.
  • The internet age is challenging one of the great modern myths of Hong Kong - that betting is not permitted in the territory. Indeed, something of a crisis is occurring because of the explosive growth of betting on the internet by Hong Kong residents. The government coffers are suffering, one of the oldest and most powerful groups in the city complains that it is losing up to $7 billion a year in revenues and cries of foul can be heard as far away as the local legislative council.
  • Jorge Gallardo, minister of finance and economy of the Republic of Ecuador, offers his views on sovereign debt restructuring.
  • David Komansky has found an innovative new way of getting analysts on his side - he insults them. The Merrill Lynch chief executive was taking questions from the floor after delivering his speech at the firm's second annual investor day conference in New York last month.
  • Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, America's two largest agency debt issuers, have now implemented the latest steps in their voluntary six-point programme agreed with Congress last year to reassure clients and the public of their safety and soundness.
  • With south-east Asian economies recovering, governments are making cautious moves to restructure and expand their power industries to meet increased demand. None wants a California-style crisis. However, foreign investor interest is likely to be limited and financing must be provided by local debt and equity markets.
  • Amid the extreme volatility in financial markets around the world so far this year, one of the biggest surprises has been the strength of the US debt markets. It has been a roaring start to the year. In January over $70 billion of high-grade corporate paper of between two and 30 years' maturity was issued. Short-term interest rate cuts helped create a steeper yield curve, which historically has been good for corporate bonds.
  • Just after the piece of masonry connected with the side of the mongrel's head, a showdown ensued outside Banca Agricola's administrative headquarters. The pack of dogs, which seconds earlier had been snarling at pedestrians and leaving their own special deposits on the bank's doorstep, stared at their attacker. The man who threw the missile glared back.
  • Minority investors in Russian companies have got their act together. Before the 1998 crisis foreigners were making enormous returns from a soaring stock market. The few that bought into problem companies, and saw their investments diluted, won the sympathy of the market but little else.
  • Chairman elect, Hawkpoint
  • The senior Botswanan banker who told Euromoney last year that he didn't care what rating Botswana got, as long as it was better than South Africa's, has finally got his wish.
  • As the European credit market has grown in the past two years, banks have struggled to position themselves to capitalize on the opportunity. In a bid to win much more lucrative underwriting business than high-grade, frequent issuers ever offered, they have poured money into credit research, importing staff from the US, where credit analysis is a long-familiar concept, and plundering the rating agencies for talent. But the response from investors has been mixed. While sell-side credit analysts may offer a convenient shortcut to essential facts and figures about a company, fund managers are quick to highlight their lack of independence. In a volatile credit market, buyers of credit bonds are doing more of their own analysis in-house. Still, brokers insist that this doesn’t mean their role is under threat.
  • Issuer: RHM Finance Amount: £650 million Type of issue: whole-business securitization Date of issue: February 28 Arranger: JP Morgan
  • The huge growth in the number of European corporates of varying credit quality tapping the capital markets has led to massive demand for ratings. The ratings agencies are staffing up to meet this challenge. But there remains a question mark over the value of the service they provide, especially in high yield, the most credit-intensive area of all.
  • In a world where sovereign bondholders are disparate and disunited they are hard pressed to get a good deal if a defaulting sovereign and its bank advisers devise a unilateral exchange offer or other restructuring. With the often bitter experience of three such restructurings behind them, bondholders are getting together to protect their position.
  • Jean Lemierre, president of the EBRD, discusses the bank's role in central and eastern Europe, where it is still struggling to define its place.
  • It may have been buried towards the back of a long report but it has certainly elbowed its way into the spotlight since. A call by Paul Myners, in his review of the UK's investment industry, to address how and why fund managers pay commissions to brokers has sparked a heated debate.
  • The Emerging Market Creditors Association is becoming nervous because Ecuador included exit constraints in its exchange offer. Now they have been used successfully once, they may be used again elsewhere.
  • Whatever Russia's government is or is not doing, Russian companies have found their own reasons for making improvements in corporate governance and boosting shareholder value. At least one market player dubs this consolidation process reprivatization. However there is still much to be done to restore the brittle confidence of local investors and only after this has happened will foreign funds consider returning to a market which knows how to burn them. Ben Aris reports from Moscow
  • Turkish banks will have to roll over $6 billion in syndicated debt this year. Though first-tier banks will be able to roll over, albeit at higher interest rates, life will not be so easy for medium-sized and smaller banks.
  • Turkey’s idiosyncratic form of financial engineering involved the creation of a web of corruption linking the governing elite, through the state banks, to its cronies. The private banks fed well off the massive government debt this generated. Then, in February, they hit the wall in a liquidity crisis that lopped more than 30% off the value of the Turkish lira.
  • The German Pfandbrief market, in particular the jumbo sector, has grown dramatically in recent years and assumed a larger and larger slice of European bond fund managers’ portfolios. But now many of the leading issuers face significant challenges in the underlying lending businesses that generate Pfandbrief collateral. The German mortgage banks are seeking non-traditional business opportunities, as well as starting to sort out their underperforming mortgage lending businesses. Volumes are likely to shrink.
  • In Russia, large financial-industrial groups exist alongside a new breed of commercially-minded and successful industrial groups that have made their money by more traditional and honest means.
  • On February 28, Indian finance minister Yashwant Sinha announced an annual budget that should have given a strong push to economic growth. Tax cuts, a sharp cut in interest rates and a raising of the ceiling on foreign portfolio investment in Indian companies should have given the stock markets the boost they badly needed.
  • Chile is reckoned to be the best organized country in Latin America, so no-one was expecting any surprises when Santiago was chosen to host the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) annual meetings in March. It was expected that there would be lots of optimism about Mexico and its investment-grade credit rating, optimism too about the surprisingly smooth way in which the Peruvian elections seem to be panning out, and positive noises about a US soft landing and the way in which Argentina, with the help of the IMF, was attempting to extricate itself from economic stagnation.
  • The Romanian government, many observers reckon, is playing a game of bluff. The IMF is told tales about privatization and restructuring while the populace is fed sops. The government, meanwhile is mired in inaction. Investors aren’t going to rush into such a market until they are offered deals that are sufficiently attractive to outweigh unexpected risks.
  • Last month's announcement of a merger between DG Bank and GZ Bank was a long awaited step in the consolidation of the top level of Germany's cooperative banking sector.
  • Those central and eastern European countries that have pushed furthest and fastest with privatization have benefited from healthy government finances, restructuring and modernization of key industries and enhanced economic growth. That’s undeniable. But privatization remains ever politically contentious. Selling their banking systems to foreigners was hard to stomach, and now these countries are selling even more essential services, their energy generators and power distributors. If they can maintain the political will, at least governments will find buyers in these sectors, unlike in telecommunications.
  • Romania is not planning to over-compensate for scarcity by issuing heavily. But it is clearly keen to establish itself in the international debt markets.
  • The marble floors are still in place at the EBRD’s office on London’s Bishopsgate, the grand pillars and glass still deck the waiting area and the presidential suite remains with its grand vistas. But little else at the EBRD remains of the Jacques Attali era. Since he launched the bank with such a grandiose vision 10 years ago, it has fallen on leaner times. The grand claims to transform entire economies have been replaced by the limited promises to clean up management practices in its designated area of interest in eastern and central Europe. The men now running the show are no longer Europe’s heavy hitters but technocrats bent as much on curbing internal costs as doing imaginative deals.