Bric: special focus

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Euromoney's recent coverage of macroeconomic, FX, fixed income and equity market trends in Brazil, Russia, India and China.

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Brazil: special focus

Russia: special focus

India: special focus

China: special focus

Emerging markets: special focus

UBS rebuilds in Brazil with acquisition of Consenso

June 2017 
Swiss bank buys Brazil’s biggest multi-family office; wealth management industry continues to grow fast despite economic turbulence.

Latin America: Data talks big in Brazil – for now
June 2017

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The country’s biggest banks are working on the big data challenge. If successful, it could transform the industry and its performance. But quantifying the impact and differentiating between potential winners and losers is almost impossible.

When Brazilian bank holidays meet financial regulation
June 2017 
What gated communities can teach us about gaming the system.

Latin America: Politics puts Brazil in a spin
June 2017 

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The latest political scandal in Brazil spooked the markets, but didn’t bring them down. Why not?

Country risk: Russia is on the long road back
June 2017 
Experts are beginning to feel more confident about Russia’s prospects, and its credit ratings will ultimately reflect this.

Asia: State Bank of India sets global strategy
June 2017 

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Bedding down a six-sided merger domestically; international activity to be 20% of total book in three years.

Investment One seeks niche in busy Brazilian finance space
May 2017  

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Bernardo Parnes opens IB and wealth management boutique; consultancy aims to differentiate by seniority of advisers.


Brazil: Bradesco BBI aims to become regional investment bank
May 2017
Miranda, head of BBI, says single country banks at a disadvantage; global trend to universal banks helping drive national and regional growth.

Was Brazil’s crash an opportunity or the end of a bull run?
May 2017 

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Sharp crash in bank shares was followed by marked recovery; risk of political stagnation could lead to larger, longer-term falls in sector.

Brazil’s XP chooses a road often travelled: selling to Itaú
May 2017
Itaú buys XP to protect its market share; staggered deal offers XP a certain future away from IPO risks.

Latin America: NPLs point to credit quality recovery in Brazil
May 2017 
Private banks ahead of the curve in terms of provisioning; Banco do Brasil returns to double-digit ROE.

Asia: The rise and rise of India’s challenger firms
May 2017 

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Whip-smart M&A boutiques and upstart full-service investment banks are making waves in India, profiting from the retreat of global investment banks. But how much further can they go? 

China downgrade predicted by Euromoney survey
May 2017 

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The decision by Moody’s to lower its sovereign rating on China was flagged-up in ECR’s crowd-sourcing survey more than a year ago, and it will mean higher funding costs in the offshore market.

Santander Brasil begins to win converts to its turnaround story
April 2017 
Credit Suisse switches to outperform rating; Santander expected to quickly close the profitability gap with its peers.

Brazil’s bankers hope Azul is green light for more IPOs
April 2017 
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Airline IPO finally takes off on fourth attempt; optimism immediately tempered by renewed political risk.

Brazil: not as boring as it looks
April 2017 
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The headline news in Brazil is always dramatic, often shocking, but never dull. Unlike its financial sector, which does little to excite international interest. Could that be about to change?

India’s banks dial in on demonetization
April 2017

Senior bankers hail acceleration of digitization; impact felt across financial services industry.

Indian banks respond to Modi's demonetization shock therapy
April 2017 
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November 8, 2016, will go down in history as the day Donald Trump, a real estate mogul and reality TV host, was elected the 45th president of the United States and leader of the free world – but, in India, it marks a perhaps equally surreal event: demonetization. Can the scrapping of bank notes used in the bulk of the nation’s cash transactions finally catapult this long-time financial laggard into the 21st century?

India: It’s a woman’s world
April 2017 
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If this was supposed to be the century of the woman, no one thought to tell the international banking community. One country alone has closed the gender gap, and it happens to be Asia’s fastest-growing large economy. Step forward India, where the top ranks of finance are filled with high-flying women.

Ashish Kumar Chauhan: India’s stockbroking supremo
April 2017 
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Ashish Kumar Chauhan transformed Indian broking not once but twice, co-founding the National Stock Exchange before jumping ship and joining its rival, the Bombay Stock Exchange, which has just completed its IPO. What lies ahead as competition between the two exchanges intensifies?

Latin America: Lenders warming up to Brazilian banks
March 2017 
Recent IFC deal for Banco Daycoval outperformed initial expectations; IFC sees changing role in Brazil as interest rates fall.

Brazil’s valuation recovery might have run out of steam
March 2017 

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Credit Suisse books Brazilian profits and switches to Malaysia; crowded trade hints at heated valuations.

Latin America: Goldfajn plots a happy ending for Brazil interest rates
March 2017

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The new president of Brazil’s central bank has identified the large interest rate spread applied by banks on top of the base rate as an obstacle to economic growth. His plan to increase competition and reduce this ‘spread bancario’ is long overdue.

Latin America: Banco do Brasil begins to convince
March 2017 

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As CEO Caffarelli targets private-sector levels of profitability, Brazil’s state-banking behemoth is aiming to improve capital and benefit from a better economy.

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Latin America: Santander Brasil focuses on its goals, not the misses
March 2017 
Santander Brasil lost out to rivals Itaú and Bradesco as other foreign banks put their businesses on the block. It might not be a bad thing. The bank is the momentum story in a tough market. But just how far can it grow?

Brazil’s political risk is very much alive
March 2017 

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The political class is tainted with corruption. What a time to introduce some big reforms.

Emerging Europe: VTB Capital back in hiring mode in London after three lean years
March 2017

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Leading Russian investment bank adds Israel to coverage list; India next target after Essar sell-side mandate wins admirers.


Country risk: India upgrade is long overdue
March 2017 

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The OECD’s arguments in favour of a higher credit rating are endorsed by experts taking part in Euromoney’s country risk survey.

Asia: Alder says Stock Connect has improved balance with Chinese regulators
March 2017
Enforcement on the mainland remains a huge issue for the Hong Kong SFC, but its CEO claims things are changing.

Asia: Why CLSA had to call time on US research
March 2017 

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The US always looked a tough nut to crack for CLSA and it’s only getting tougher, so it’s not a shock to see the Hong Kong brokerage heading for the exit.



China's Lufax prepares to meet the global market
March 2017

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It started out as one of 3,000 peer-to-peer lenders in China. In six years, it has become a broad wealth management platform that may raise as much as $5 billion in an international IPO this year. The pace of its growth has been every bit as breathtaking as Tencent’s WeChat or Alibaba’s Alipay, yet few outside China have heard of it. They will. CEO Gregory Gibb tells us why.

Asia’s vibrant high-yield start raises fears of a bubble
March 2017 

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It seems perverse to criticize a high-yield boom just eight weeks after it got started, but questions are arising over the fervour for new deals.

Latin America: Brazil’s central bank attacks ‘spread bancario’
February 2017 

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High cost of credit in the ‘free market’ segments seen as economic impediment; president of BCB committed to lower costs and greater competition.

Latin America: How BTG came through the ultimate stress test
February 2017 

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When Brazilian federal police knocked on the door of André Esteves’ Rio de Janeiro home on the morning of November 25, 2015, they were not only arresting one of the country’s most prominent bankers, they were also delivering a hammer blow to his bank, BTG Pactual. There followed a stress test that would threaten the collapse of the bank. Here’s the story of how the partners forged a business model for BTG in the glare of public scrutiny.

Latin America – BTG Pactual: Esteves’ arrest shows how to run a bank
February 2017 

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How many firms would survive the detention of the founder, dominant partner and largest shareholder? There is a lesson for others in that.

Private banking: Brazil’s locals consolidate and fight for offshore
February 2017

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The hoped-for flows onshore from last year’s amnesty on offshore wealth have failed to materialise, so far. Meanwhile, Citi and HSBC have sold up. So where did a 15% increase in assets under management come from?

New China bond licences raise more questions
February 2017 

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The two licences awarded to JPMorgan and Citi in the Chinese bond markets this week look like progress, but need closer examination.

2017 Chinese economy & investment environment outlook e-book

February 2017 
Download the free e-book.

Emerging Europe: Western banks return to Russian IPOs
January 2017
International investors regain appetite for Russian stocks; Sovcomflot privatization on the table again.

Emerging Europe – Russia: Unsecured, untied and not a bond in sight
January 2017 

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International banks recently put up an unsecured loan for a Russian borrower with a parent on the US sanctions list. Has the loan market for unsanctioned investment-grade Russian borrowers just got broader, deeper and potentially cheaper?

Asia banking: Are China’s JVs worth the effort?
January 2017 
The long-awaited tie-up between HSBC and Shenzhen Qianhai Financial Holdings still seems to be nowhere in sight.

Portugal’s doubtful Chinese bailout
January 2017 
Chinese firms are back in the running for control of Portuguese banking. The two sides are more used to doing business now – and the sellers are even more desperate for capital.

Chinese Hong Kong listings survive capital curfews
January 2017 

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Although China has restricted capital flight, it is still encouraging Hong Kong IPOs. That is good for international banks – mostly.

Asia bond markets make strong early running
January 2017 

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In sharp contrast to this time last year, Asian issuers have rushed to get deals away while benign conditions last. How long will the Asia DCM boom last?

China: AIIB’s clouded outlook
January 2017 

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Beijing's pollution a problem for staff moves.

Brazil extends successful offshore wealth amnesty
December 2016 
Amnesty has been a big fiscal bonus for government in 2016; large inflows have been counterintuitively a net-negative for local AUM.

Brazil begins micro reforms in attempt to end recession
December 2016 

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Regulatory reforms negative for non-bank financials; banks’ NPLs could get a boost through reform of FGTS.

BTG aims downmarket as technology reshapes Brazilian banking
December 2016 
BTG Pactual launches online-only investment platform; Banco do Brasil shedding jobs as it pushes digital.

Modi’s demonetization catches India on the hop
December 2016 
Scrapping large-tender notes sparks panic; ‘black economy’ crackdown prompts cash squeeze.

Year in data 2016: China’s dominance of investment banking reaches troubling levels
December 2016 
It is no secret that China is the biggest game in town in Asia-Pacific investment banking. But it is striking, even alarming, to learn just how utterly dominant it has become.

Asia: Shenzhen-HK Connect arrives as insurers are pilloried for investment
December 2016 

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New capital flow channel had a limp debut; insurance industry is under the cosh.

Investigations leave Hong Kong’s bankers nervous

December 2016 
SFC scrutinizes stock exchange sponsors; US pursues princeling hires.

Asia: Allure of the Chinese buyer begins to fade
December 2016 

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Outbound M&A from China has been one of the big themes in global investment banking over the past few years, much of it driven by the need to reform China’s state-owned enterprises. But it is tricky work, subject to forces beyond an adviser’s control, and only some of it is lucrative. No wonder bankers, and many selling companies, are re-evaluating whether a Chinese buyer is unequivocally a good thing.

Latin America: The sucking sound of Brazilian interest rates
November 2016

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Brazil’s economy leads the world in high interest rates. It is a blessing for banks but a burden on the economy – draining resources away from both new investment and consumption. Will new credit platforms finally jolt the established banks into a competitive response where previous strategies have failed?

Banco do Brasil strives to turn a corner
November 2016 
New management aims to rebuild core equity; attractive valuation if it avoids equity issuance.

Latin America: Investment bankers optimistic for upturn
November 2016 
Revenues still depressed by poor ECM; DCM and M&A resilient but at low levels.

Russia investment banking: VTB Capital faces down the doubters
November 2016 
Russia’s leading investment bank has seen its fortunes fluctuate over the past two years. Alexei Yakovitsky, VTB Capital’s chief executive, talks to Euromoney about Brexit, Africa and state ownership and explains why sanctions have proved more of a blessing than a curse.

China and India: A tale of two New York IPOs
November 2016 

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ZTO Express underlines US affection for ambitious Chinese firms; Azure Power shows how much farther India’s have to go.

Subramanian’s brief moment of online passion
November 2016 
Pity Arvind Subramanian – he has a tough enough job as it is as chief economic adviser to the government of India without further distraction.

China’s swap shop tries to avoid swamping banks
November 2016 
New debt-equity swap measures tackle corporate debt load; bank NPLs are already rising.

Brazil: BMG’s short-sighted asset sale to Itaú
October 2016 
Sale of JV stake will boost capital ratios but adds strategic uncertainty, while the acquisition further strengthens Brazil’s largest private bank.

Brazil: Itaú acquisition raises competition concerns
October 2016 
Citi exit increases concentration; lack of competition ‘causing economic damage’.

Brazil: BM&F Bovespa’s room for recovery in question
October 2016 
Exchange already ‘toppish’, valuations suggest; Bovespa argues internationalisation adds differentiation.

Central Bank of Brazil fluffs its lines
October 2016 
Brazil’s central bank chief has missed a great opportunity to address its uncompetitive banking sector.

Russia: Teplukhin reunites Troika team for new boutique
October 2016
Matrix Capital to offer fund management, advisory; ‘perfect fit’ for global banks in era of Russia pullback.

India’s resurgent IPO market banks on insurance
October 2016 
ICICI Prudential Life reinvigorates IPOs; slew of smaller listings ready to follow.

Asia banking: China’s shadow monster can’t be stopped
October 2016
Sector is opaque, distorting and unstable; banks ‘lending where they shouldn’t be’.

China: Postal Savings spreads the love 26 ways
October 2016

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Bank sets record for bookrunners on a single deal; raises $7.4 billion but only thanks to cornerstones.

Asia: Why Hong Kong needs to curb cornerstone epidemic
October 2016

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The dominance of cornerstone tranches in Chinese IPOs represents a raw deal for other investors – and needs to stop.

ECR survey results Q3 2016: China, Italy, Nigeria mar stabilizing global outlook
October 2016

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The calming of the political shock of Brexit, with oil prices now receiving Opec support, is preventing global risks from worsening, yet with a referendum looming in Italy, elections in the US and Europe to come, not to mention frail banks and several countries mired in difficulties, it might be the calm before another global storm.

Asia real estate: Divorce? It’s the best deal in China
October 2016 
Decoding the Chinese property market has always been a challenging science, but even the savviest analysts may not have appreciated one unlikely driver: divorce rates.

Latin America: Brazilian brokers wave the offside flag
September 2016

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Since demutualization, Brazil’s stock exchange, the BM&F Bovespa, has become hugely profitable and powerful but the majority of its brokers are struggling for survival. Doubts remain as to whether their mutual interests can be realigned but there is little sympathy for the brokers.

Latin America fintech: Brazil’s digital puzzle
September 2016 
New regulation in the pipeline to cover fintech companies; large banks wary of cannibalisation of revenues.

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Financial inclusion: Biometric banking and the $600 billion opportunity
September 2016 
An extraordinary revolution is taking place in digital banking in India. Driven by the state, it is anchored on a billion-strong biometric database to finally bring financial inclusion to a country that needs it more than any other. Banks may face a binary outcome: be quick or be dead.


Understanding India’s push into biometrics
September 2016 
From Aadhaar to iSPIRT – your guide to Indian biometrics.

How financial inclusion will change the face of banking
September 2016 

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Technology is finally bringing banking services to the unbanked in both developing and developed markets. While technology companies are driving this transformational shift, it looks increasingly likely that traditional banks will ultimately be service providers. They have everything to gain if they can form partnerships and create a long-term strategy.

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Asia: Bhattacharya stakes her reputation on transforming State Bank of India
September 2016 
Arundhati Bhattacharya already had one of the toughest jobs in India as chairman of State Bank of India. Not only is it the country’s largest financial institution, but it is also woven inextricably into India’s social fabric. She has made her job harder still by proposing a seven-sided bank merger. But as technological innovation increases and as asset quality plunges across public banks, bigger may not necessarily be better.

Asia: State Bank of India – communicating to the masses and turning to tech
September 2016 
Arundhati Bhattacharya is an SBI veteran: she joined in 1977.

China private banking debate: Wealth managers look to a world of opportunity
September 2016 

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China’s leading lenders are opening private banking offices across the world to cater to their wealthiest clients. But all global wealth managers face the same challenges: rising regulations; the need to maximize internal resources by targeting the right markets and clients; and the rise of technology.

China rings changes in homegrown bond markets
September 2016 
New deals show innovation; mounting concern about defaults.

China looks forward to second phase of CIPS
September 2016 
As the China International Payment System (CIPS) approaches its first anniversary, there is much anticipation around how the second phase of the project will impact RMB settlement volumes.

Bulge bracket gets slimmer in Asian investment banking revenues
September 2016

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Euromoney’s sister company Dealogic released a set of data on Monday confirming what many international bankers in Asia have feared for some time: that they are becoming less relevant and are losing their lunch to local, chiefly Chinese, rivals.

Brazil improving, but Olympian feat required to reclaim investment grade
August 2016

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A cyclical recovery is under way yet huge fiscal problems remain, and whether progress is sustained depends on structural reforms, risk experts caution.



Latin America: Lacerda plays a grown-up game
August 2016 
The downturn in Brazil does not faze Ricardo Lacerda, founding partner of local investment bank BR Partners. Advisory remains the bedrock of his business, but political instability makes him think the next five years could undermine the last 20.

Brazilian banks’ share rally to falter?
August 2016 
Best global performers so far this year; Rally technical; fundamentals remain poor.

Russia: Is Alrosa a diamond deal or fake sparkler?
August 2016 
US investors shun Russian privatization; global banks not required, say locals.

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Asia: Driven Kapoor breaks the mould
August 2016 
Yes Bank, started just 12 years ago, is one of India’s fastest growing lenders – and the most interesting by far. Its founder and CEO sits down with Euromoney to discuss risk management, cost cutting, divine intervention and why he doesn’t do the ‘wow’ factor.

Reserve Bank of India: Why did Rajan go?
August 2016 
All eyes are on the expected appointment of a new Reserve Bank of India governor, but nobody is quite clear why there needs to be a new one.

Masala debut at last
August 2016 
HDFC launches first corporate masala bond; others may be slow to follow.

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Asia: CCB’s Wang is alert to China’s challenges
August 2016 
China Construction Bank is not alone among the country’s big four banks to claim it changed its lending policy before the rise in bad debts. But in chairman Wang Hongzhang, CCB has a leader who thinks differently.

Temasek hit by China volatility
August 2016 
Posts 9.02% loss for 2015-16; sovereign fund reshapes portfolio.

China retail gold survey 2016: China steps towards gold dominance
August 2016
As the Shanghai Gold Exchange introduces a new benchmark, the country now leads in gold production, consumption and imports.

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China Retail Gold Survey 2016: Results Index
August 2016

Brazil: What’s the Portuguese for backbone?
June 2016 
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Brazil might develop a more mutually beneficial equities market, but history suggests it won’t. 

June 2016 
Political risk no longer driving equity performance; privatizations on investors radar. 

June 2016 
Petrobras opens way for strong Brazilian pipeline; Argentina sovereign praised for helping deal flow.

M&A: China’s new language of acquisition
June 2016 
Chinese M&A ambition is good news for banks chasing advisory fees but soaring debt levels give cause for concern.

China’s Big Four ready for bad debt challenge
June 2016 
Bank chairmen confident they can tackle NPL problem; Chinese economy undergoing necessary restructuring.

Brazil and Argentina: A tale of two debt stories
May 2016 

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Argentina and Brazil are heading in opposite directions.

Latin America: As Brazil falls, private equity rises
May 2016 
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Every cloud has a silver lining, and private equity firms are pretty good at finding them. Is that why they are now targeting crisis-hit Brazil? Have they learnt from their poor recent performance?

Brazil: Corporate default fear drives impeachment
May 2016 
Markets rally on Rousseff’s woes; corporations pressure politicians.

Country risk: India takes a rain check, but it’s no monsoon
May 2016 
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Its sovereign risk score has eased back this year as doubts begin to creep in, but India remains worthy of investment grade.

Asia: Good news for a multilateral future
May 2016 
China’s commitment to common standards for development banks is welcome news.

Brazilian issuers eye securitization funding
April 2016 
Cheapest access to dollars: politics helps mask economic realities.

Brazil: Disposals help BTG Pactual pass liquidity test
April 2016 
Shores up confidence; retains minority Swiss bank stake.

April 2016 
Citi JV opts for Hong Kong for IPO, but should it have gone six months ago?

Asia: China's moment of truth
April 2016 
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China has a future rich with potential: a liberalized currency, an open capital account, state lenders and technology giants offering innovative banking services to a vibrant private sector. But Beijing’s leaders face a growing problem: a two-speed China. Now is not the time for them to drag their feet over reform.

China: Corporates face toxic threat of debt
April 2016 
Corporate debt at record high; NPLs at state lenders also on rise.

Euromoney Country Risk survey results Q1 2016: Heightened concern over Brazil, China and other EMs accentuates global shock prospects
April 2016 
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Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.

Panda breath: China fears dislocation, not doomsday
April 2016 
Polemicists arguing either side of this coin toss abound, from water coolers to Republican primaries. Where once markets drew direction from the pronouncements of Alan Greenspan, they now rise and fall on Chinese numbers. Ironically, no one actually believes the official numbers that China puts out.

VTB and Russian Post go large on retail
March 2016 
Timing is right for Post Bank launch, says chairman. Branch network 'will be bigger than Sberbank’s’.

India: Globalizing the rupee
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March 2016 
China is well on the way to creating a global currency, with a little help from the IMF. But what of India, the other economy set to dominate the 21st century? Will the rupee come to rival the renminbi and the dollar, or will poor planning and weak infrastructure undermine its ambitions?



Country risk: The compelling case for a China downgrade
March 2016 
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Talk of a crisis is overblown, but the world’s most populous nation is still struggling to convince the experts, as its risk score declines.

China A-shares set for MSCI index breakthrough
March 2016
QFII reforms will open up access to domestic stocks; China will have big weighting in EM.

Hong Kong IPOs: Goodbaby, goodnight
March 2016
Every now and then a barometer deal comes around: one whose outcome shows the market what to expect. One such was Goodbaby China Holdings, set to be a deal that showed there was still scope to launch IPOs, even mainland Chinese IPOs, in Hong Kong, despite volatility.

Brazil loses monetary lever
February 2016
The Central Bank of Brazil is facing a credibility struggle, making it even harder for investors to predict when country’s turnaround will come.

Private banking: Ways to win with India’s wealthy
February 2016
India has been a tough market for global wealth managers, ground down by rising costs and regulation. But private wealth is growing fast, offering long-term profit for those with patience and persistence.

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Emerging markets: Big trouble from brittle China
February 2016
The January fall in emerging market currencies, the exodus of foreign capital and a global bear market in equities all point to a new financial crisis. How China reacts to this threat holds the key for emerging markets.

Panda breath – Street food for thought
February 2016

With the energy of frustrated followers of Nostradamus finally finding vindication, market-watchers pounced on China’s opening-bell volatility as confirmation that the end, finally, was nigh.


Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2015: China, Brazil and South Africa lead EM credit rout
January 2016

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Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.

Brazil: BTG fights for survival
January 2016
Esteves’ exit fails to slow outflows; oil and gas exposure in spotlight.

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January 2016
International investors will swiftly return to Latin America if they see clear evidence of economic progress.

January 2016
Brazil or Argentina need to spark revival; Latin America investment banking’s worst year since 2009.

Scrapping over the scraps – a dog-eat-dog world in CEE IB
January 2016
Investment-banking volumes in emerging Europe have fallen to their lowest levels for more than a decade. Some international banks are withdrawing capacity, while there is little sign of a pick up in the capital markets. So why are some of the universal banks still making positive noises?

January 2016
VTB Capital cemented its position as Moscow’s leading investment bank last year. With cross-border deals for Chinese and Indian clients it is becoming more than just the adviser of choice for Russian corporates. But will the firm’s ambitions get the better of it? 

Fear and loathing in Beijing rattles Chinese brokers
January 2016
Arrests, disappearances and suicides rock industry; investor unease at hard-nosed Beijing.

Brazil: BNDES – extrication impossible
December 2015
With a struggling economy, Brazil will continue to rely heavily on its state development bank to provide long-term finance for crucial infrastructure projects, unless private-sector alternatives can be found.

Russia payments bid unlikely to be swift
December 2015
While irked by western dominance of Swift and determined to assert its monetary independence, the prospect of Russia going it alone on payments and messaging remains remote.

Indian IPOs: back in vogue, for now
December 2015
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ECM re-emerges from lengthy slump; foreign investors jump on slew of mid-sized IPOs.

China: Ex-regulator calls for market reforms
December 2015

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Gao urges SOE defaults; financial reform should precede capital liberalization.

Economists sombre on China monetary trap
December 2015
Dollar dominance continues; RMB inclusion in IMF reserve basket symbolic.

AIIB spells out conservative approach
December 2015
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New Asia lender caps lending at $100 billion; dollars, not RMB, will fund projects.

China domestic reform: do or die
December 2015
China is pushing ahead with capital account reforms but it needs to make sure its own house is in order first.

Country risk: Hungary, India and Thailand among EMs resilient to shocks
November 2015
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"Income shocks have been the name of the game for emerging Asia in 2016. Not everybody has suffered. India is the big winner."

China's international payment system gathers steam
November 2015
One month in and it’s a case of so far so good for the China International Payment System (CIPS), even allowing for limitations in operating hours.

South Africa on critical list as Brics keep falling
November 2015


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The borrower’s fundamentals are pointing to a downgrade that would chalk up a trio of Brics on junk status based on S&P’s metrics.

Brazil seeks foreign help for infrastructure
November 2015
Guarantees to aid private sector flows; BNDES scaling back but still dominant player.

Brazil private sector banks: Pessimism takes root
November 2015
Toxic outlook for economy and NPLs; impact of higher NIM sparks debate.

LatAm central banks: Monetary policymakers need fiscal friends
November 2015
The Brazilian real has fallen against the dollar by more than any other major world currency, exacerbating already high inflation (approaching 10%) and the Brazilian central bank has been much more active.

Global buyers snap up Russian corporate debt
November 2015
Russia is a safe haven, say bankers; local liquidity holding back supply.

India: Rajan reveals Masala bond rules
November 2015

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Annual cap of $750 million, five-year maturity; corporates, real estate and investment trusts can issue.

Chinese corporates reassess FX hedging
November 2015

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Having done well from their exposure to the RMB during the past decade, the currency’s surprise devaluation in mid-August should force Chinese companies to brush up on hedging strategies that were rusty at best, but many are instead simply focusing on opportunistic borrowing strategies.

China's balancing act on exchange rate
October 2015
China's quarter-point rate cut last Friday is the latest attempt to revive a flagging economy. But although currency liberalization is on the agenda in the longer term, the People's Bank of China is unlikely to be ready to cede control of the renminbi’s de facto dollar peg just yet as depreciation pressures grow.

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Brics take the road less travelled
September 2015
Emerging markets are working for a multipolar monetary world. Beijing is spearheading the push to establish rivals to the World Bank to globalize the renminbi, establish markets for its excess capacity and plug the infrastructure deficit. But, for now, a post-Bretton Woods era is fantasy.




New Brics lenders redraw multilateral map
September 2015
Top emerging market officials reveal the ambitions of the new Sino-led development institutions. But emerging markets ignore the opportunity costs of state-led project financing at their peril.
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Brazil central bank: We thought 'good times would last forever'
October 2015
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Commodity exports overvalued the real; manufacturing went 'down the drain'.

Country risk survey results Q3 2015 dominated by China’s jitters, Brazilian crisis and EM capital shock
October 2015
With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.

Brazil: Downgrade sparks fears of sell-off spiral
October 2015
IRB Brasil Re delays IPO pricing; debt markets down 52% on year.

Latin America investment banking: Fees’ big freeze
October 2015
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Investment banking fees in LatAm are on the way down and international banks face a tricky choice of whether to stick or twist.

Emerging Europe: Tinkoff defies Russian consumer squeeze
October 2015
Bad debts spark second wave of sector losses; CEO says low-cost, credit card model key to success.

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Steely Nabiullina fights Russia’s fires
October 2015
Elvira Nabiullina, Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year, is staunchly sticking to her controversial crisis-fighting plan as Russia reels from its biggest financial crisis since 1998. As sanctions and falling commodity prices threaten Putin’s oil-financed state patronage, the central bank – the last bastion of economic orthodoxy – is battling to craft a new growth model. Can Nabiullina turn crisis into opportunity?


Nabiullina rages against the banking machine
October 2015
In 2013, Russia’s central bank became a mega-regulator, overseeing a slew of credit institutions, from banks, insurance agencies, investment vehicles, micro-finance houses to pawnshops. That makes Elvira Nabiullina the most powerful central banker in modern Russian history.

China ponders privatization conundrum
October 2015
Beijing plan to privatise slew of SOEs: Analysts fear concentration of power.


Brazil private banking debate: Private bankers cushion the blows in Brazil
September 2015
The country’s economy is going through tough times, putting a greater onus on private bankers to look after their clients’ investments. An emphasis on overseas diversification of portfolios is crucial. However, domestic investments still take up the greater share and require careful management.

Infrastructure finance: Projecting Brazil’s future
September 2015
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The Brazilian government is pinning its hopes on infrastructure finance to boost GDP growth and help woeful productivity rates. But the source of finance and the viability of some of the proposed projects mean that an infrastructure-led recovery won’t be coming to Brazil’s rescue any time soon.

Brazil banking: Bradesco buoyant, HSBC on back foot
September 2015
Brazil deal lifts Bradesco; UK bank fights to retain Mexico.
Brazil banking: Beyond the blame game
September 2015
It is time for Brazil’s central bank to encourage some competition and shake up the cosy world of its domestic institutions.

Markets mull Brazil junk-rating impact
September 2015
Battle-ready long-term investors could pick up equity and debt on the cheap, according to research, as S&P finally cuts Brazil to junk after Euromoney Country Risk rankings.

Central Bank Governor of the Year 2015: Nabiullina displays crisis-fighting skills
September 2015
Central Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina is using orthodox but painful policy measures to combat the oil- and sanctions-driven storm that is ravaging the economy.

Nabiullina named Euromoney Central Bank Governor of the Year 2015
September 2015
Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Central Bank of Russia, has been named Euromoney’s Central Bank Governor of the Year for 2015.

Igor Kim: Russia's great consolidator
September 2015
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A prolific bank buyer but notoriously publicity-shy, Igor Kim is little known outside his native Russia. In his first major interview with the international media, he talks about expanding into Europe, surviving a spell on Canada’s sanctions list and why global banking models are doomed to failure.

Special report: China's leading cities
September 2015

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The hubs in the New Silk Road.

Best China Cities Survey 2015
September 2015
Overall results

China private banking debate: Managing a wealth of riches in China
September 2015
The nation’s private banking industry is blossoming, but even as it flourishes, leading players have to move fast to keep up with a changing market and an increasingly demanding and diverse client base. Euromoney gathered together a panel of private bankers, wealth managers and economists to discuss the market’s key issues in July.

Chinese investment banks: Calmer chameleons
September 2015
Asia’s growing band of big, local investment banks won’t let short-term market fluctuations affect their planned transitions from national to regional leadership.

China's leaders hit the panic button
September 2015
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Look beyond the gyrations of its stock markets, and you can see one thing clearly in China: equivocation. The regime of Xi Jinping is fundamentally flawed because of its public espousal of the markets, but private refusal to cede any real control. Optimists hope the latest crisis could be the impetus for real reform. Most experts warn investors hoping for a recovery in their stock purchases not to hold their breath.

China starts market mayhem blame game
September 2015
Market propped up by $200 billion in July and August; brokerage probes undermine drive to reform.

Sideways: China can learn from Goldman
September 2015
China’s struggle to communicate effectively with markets was demonstrated by its scapegoating of journalists for supposedly worsening the crash in local stock prices.

Emerging-market crisis is key test for banks
September 2015
Lenders were offered a valuable real-life stress test in late August, when investor concerns about the Chinese authorities’ bungled response to slowing growth in China following the devaluation of the yuan led to plunging Chinese and world equity prices, slumping commodity valuations and spikes in volatility across currency and securities markets.

China stuns markets with sudden currency devaluation
September 2015
Everyone knew a revaluation of renminbi was coming sooner or later, yet China's announcement, including reform of the dollar fixing mechanism, caught many off guard. The move left observers debating whether it was stimulating its economy or acquiescing to calls for exchange-rate liberalization.

Latin America: Average deal fees slump
August 2015
The region saw 40% less issuance than in the same period last year – with the slump in Brazilian issuance to blame for lower revenues.

Russia: Moscow IPOs come under fire
August 2015
More secondary listings likely; consumer, tech, export stocks in focus.

IPOs: We need to talk about Russia
August 2015
Two successful IPOs should have been good news for the country’s markets – if anyone had bothered to tell the world more about them.

SWF: Temasek rides China wave to near 20% return
August 2015

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Over one quarter of fund invested in China; concern over volatility exposure.

China: Stock meltdown prompts market intervention
August 2015
Foreign investors pull Rmb40.5 billion in two weeks; average P/E ratio still 66 times.

Heightened risks threaten Brazil’s investment grade
July 2015
Latin America’s largest market and one of its hottest investment prospects only a few years ago is now rocking from a confluence of negative factors undermining creditworthiness.

Brazil: Project bond push called into question
July 2015
Government seeks private investors; buyers 'not fully aware’ of the risks.

Gap in Brazil’s infrastructure projects
July 2015
Plans to involve the capital markets seem to be attracting the wrong investor – one who might not understand the risks.

Country Awards for Excellence 2015: Latin America – Brazil
July 2015
Best bank and best investment bank.

Banking: Playing the long game in Russia
July 2015
Banks are prepared to sit through a couple of lean years in emerging Europe’s largest market, given that it will bounce back eventually. They might not want to get too optimistic though.

Country Awards for Excellence 2015: Central & Eastern Europe and Baltics
July 2015
The impact of international sanctions, economic slowdown and a plunging rouble was felt throughout the Russian banking sector last year.

Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2015: In search of safe havens with Greece on the brink
July 2015
Although India lags China in terms of its economic development, and is vulnerable to shifting market sentiment, its growth is expected to be stronger than China’s, and its external risks have eased.

Country risk expert insight – Q1 results: India
July 2015
The results of the latest Euromoney Country Risk quarterly survey saw India’s risk score rise 0.61 points. Year-on-year, the score is up by an impressive 2.72 points. With a score of 52.74, the country sits at 56 in the global ECR rankings. ECR asked two experts for their opinions on the reasons behind the improvement.

Country risk: Southeast Asia braces itself for US Fed rate hike
July 2015

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China has seen slightly slower consumption and exports this year, but it is investment in manufacturing and real estate that are causing the most concern.

China stocks: turning a crisis into a catastrophe
July 2015
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The government has allowed what should have been a simple market correction to get the better of it.

Awards for Excellence 2015: Outstanding contribution to global financial services
July 2015
In 15 years, Jiang Jianqing has taken ICBC from technical bankruptcy to the world’s most profitable bank.

Don’t bet on Brazil’s equity markets waking soon
June 2015
Brazil’s economy must absorb a lot more pain before it starts to grow again. Until then, investors will stay away, and the deals won’t come.

Latin America: Mexico leads but Brazil stirs from ECM slumber
June 2015
Demand rising, busy second half expected; Par Corretora holds key to Brazil return.

China high yield: Whimper greets property developer Kaisa’s default
June 2015
Stark contrast with reaction to Sino-Forest default in 2011; case highlights key man and regulatory risks in China.

Chinese corporates question value of advice
June 2015
The culture among Chinese companies of preparing and executing their own acquisitions isn’t good news for investment banks keen to charge for services. Will it ever change?

Chinese buyers descend on Lisbon
June 2015
It may be a battered economy on the edge of Europe, but Portugal is rapidly becoming the hotspot for Chinese corporate ownership in Europe, particularly in the financial sector. Whether they like it or not, governments and regulators in Lisbon, Brussels and elsewhere will welcome them with open arms.

Latin America banking: Risk pendulum swings back to locals
May 2015
"I think we will see the Spanish banks remain a strong foothold in the countries that they are already present and also see other foreign banks keeping strong footprints in markets like Mexico and Brazil."

Peru a safer prospect than Brazil, with Mexico and Colombia in its sights
May 2015
The Andean nation was riskier than Brazil not so long ago, but has risen through the LatAm rankings and might soon become the second-safest credit in the region behind Chile.

Brazil: Cielo and Petrobras give grounds for optimism
May 2015
'Deal surge’ predicted; Goldman Sachs urges caution.

Is Bradesco in the frame for HSBC Brazil?
May 2015
Global firms feel pinch; Chinese banks set to enter?


Emerging Europe: CIS counts the cost of Russia
May 2015
The rouble’s crash sent currencies tumbling across the Caucasus and Central Asia. Banks look relatively well placed to withstand an inevitable downturn. But with protracted stagnation looming, is it time for policymakers to build bridges further afield?

Raiffeisen: Sevelda's struggle
May 2015
In Russia, Raiffeisen is set to close operations in six far eastern regions and 15 smaller cities across the country, as well as pull back from the auto loan market. Sevelda says the bank will also take steps to improve the quality of its loan portfolio in Russia.

China banks face real-estate dangers
May 2015
The slowdown of the Chinese real-estate market is an increasing risk for the country’s banks, but government intervention might dampen the threat.

Dim sum bond issuance slumps as renminbi globalization struggles to gain traction
June 2015
Recent data suggest that the momentum of the renminbi is slowing, particularly outside Asia.

China: Muni sea-change excites overseas investors
May 2015
Beijing has ambitious plans for market; international funds will find it 'hard to ignore’.

Euromoney Country Risk Survey Q1 2015: Russia crisis, China fragility and EMs’ capital-flow shock
April 2015
Russia’s mounting problems caused by the sanctions and low oil prices undermining the rouble extended its trend decline into Q1 2015.

Spotting the bottom in the Brazilian real
April 2015
Falling real creates value; upturn predicted for 2016.

Digital banking: Electronic shock for China's old guard
April 2015
Tencent and Alibaba are at the vanguard of setting up new online banks. It's a great way to shake up the old state players and, by mining their data, get credit ratings for China's underserved population. But do upstart tech companies really have the political and business resources to challenge the incumbents?

Stock Connect: China shorting plan 'needs more lenders'
April 2015
The pool of approved stock lenders for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect short selling scheme must be widened for the initiative to succeed, according to market experts.

Debt restructuring with Chinese characteristics
April 2015
Critics may cry foul at the moral hazard but Beijing has bought itself time with its debt swap for local governments.

Latin America: The great rotation in M&A
March 2015
"If we are in Brazil, it’s for the long run. We decided a long time ago that Brazil is not an easy country, but it’s a growing country. […] You have to look beyond the circumstances that you see now."

Brazil's education still smart despite regulatory blow
March 2015
Tarpon takes control of Abril for R$1.3 billion; new regulation might limit numbers of higher students.

Brazil: Petrobras will be shut out of bond markets until 2016
March 2015
Needs credibility before returning; wants to avoid punitive pricing.

Brazil's local capital markets: Blame it on Brasilia
March 2015
Brazil has all the ingredients for successful local markets, but it keeps failing to deliver.

LatAm bond markets: Brazil’s local markets brace to take the strain
March 2015
The troubles at Petrobras have hurt all of Brazil’s borrowers but bankers in the country think the worst is now over and that the bad news has been priced in. The proof will come when issuers return to the markets, but who wants to go first – and can the local markets produce the goods?

Emerging Europe: Belarus embarks on a charm offensive
March 2015
Belarus’s leaders are promising a dramatic package of reforms that could overhaul the country’s sclerotic command economy and reduce its dependence on Russia. The only trouble is, no one believes them. Mixed messages to the bond markets haven’t helped.

Indian ECM volumes set to rise, while fees stay low
March 2015
A number of eye-catching deals in the Indian market in 2015 are creating excitement for bankers about the potential pipeline of deals this year.

Asia: Patience pays off as Citic/CLSA makes its mark
March 2015
Few thought that the marriage of a Chinese securities firm with an Asian brokerage which had a unique, and at times disruptive, culture could work. But two years on, Citic and CLSA have proved they can be at least the sum of their parts. Can the combination now become a true regional powerhouse as its leaders hope?

Private banking in Latin America: Brazil reverts to type
February 2015
The private banking industry in Latin America had a difficult 12 months as wealth creation slowed throughout the region. The picture for the year ahead looks brighter for some countries, but Brazil remains the dominant market and its prospects are still murky.

DCM: Mexico fills Brazil void in international markets
February 2015
Sovereign reopens market; Petrobras saga stymies Brazil.

Heron serves up irresistible dish to Bradesco
February 2015
Brazilian bank Bradesco opens its London office on February 9.

Russia: Buyers shun deeply discounted rouble
February 2015
Russia has been caught in the eye of a perfect storm. Battered by falling oil prices, US and EU sanctions and a dramatic market correction as the rouble was allowed to float, the currency has been in free-fall and liquidity has largely evaporated, with many brokers ceasing rouble trading altogether.

Asia: Anti-graft drive puts Macau in the shade
February 2015
Gaming capital stocks fall 41%; gambling revenues down 30%.

Chinese brokers hungry for assets outside Asia
February 2015
Haitong adds to trend with BESI deal; further opportunistic moves on way.

Online banking comes to China
February 2015
Pioneering WeBank launches; China set to lead industry.

Trade finance: RMB expansion catches up with China GDP
February 2015
Capital controls have constrained the use of the renminbi in global trade, while China’s real economy has surged ahead. Despite the strict rules around its use, market players are punting on strong RMB growth in 2015, Euromoney’s Trade Finance survey reveals.

The year of energy-induced recession in Brazil?
January 2015
Rationing increasingly possible; Stagnant economy slowed consumption.

Petrobras shuts Brazil out of international markets
January 2015
Corruption scandal stymies bond issues; lack of supply might set stage for others.

2014: a year in data – Brics
January 2015
Brics hit the economic wall.

Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2014: Negative oil shock creates new threats
January 2015
Negative oil shock compounds Russia crisis.

Russia risks derailing banks’ regional plans
January 2015
As Europe has stagnated since the financial crisis, Russia proved an invaluable source of returns for a handful of lucky western banking groups. But with Putin on the offensive, the rouble on the slide and recession on the horizon, its days as an engine of regional growth look to be over.

Russia: The mother of all macro risks
January 2015
The growing likelihood of an economic crisis in Russia will have a major impact on global markets in 2015.

2014: a year in data – Russia
January 2015
Rouble brews trouble for Russia

Brazil’s reality check for reviving the economy
December 2014
Brazil has a long and painful struggle ahead to revive its economy. Denial and complacency will not help that process.

Brazil: Bankers rueful over Rousseff
December 2014
Brazil’s banking industry exclaimed loudly that another four years of Dilma Rousseff would be a disaster for the country. Now that she has been re-elected, have the bankers changed their minds?

Brazil’s banks immune to struggling economy
December 2014
Strong results across the sector; banking system 'a source of strength’.

LatAm: Rising rates will limit IPO activity
December 2014
Rising rates deter equity investors; Brazil no longer driving volumes.

Euromoney’s risk survey pinpoints mispriced oil-exporter credits
December 2014
Russia’s and Venezuela’s plight was predicted by Euromoney’s country risk survey well before the market priced in their deteriorating creditworthiness. Other, similarly ranked oil-producing sovereigns could endure a similar fate.

Moscow Exchange: All revved up with no place to go
December 2014
Moscow’s revamped stock exchange has everything it takes to be a global player, with the exception of supply and demand. Has Russia’s isolation put a dampener on its ambitious domestic capital markets development programme?

China sprouts green shoots in securitization
December 2014
A flurry of new deals points to an exciting new business possibility for Apac banks in 2015.

Russian bank risks jump as Europe's halves
November 2014
The latest results of a systemic risk index reveal elevated risks in Russia, Portugal and France but a generally marked improvement across the rest of Europe.

Russia’s risk score plummets to its lowest since 1998 default
November 2014
As sanctions and falling oil prices force the rouble’s slide, country risk experts are questioning the ability of privately owned and/or state-backed banks and corporates to obtain credit and repay their debts amid capital flight and an economy in decline.

Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect enables CNH funding arbitrage
December 2014
The Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect, which was launched amid much fanfare on November 17, has triggered a jump in CNH-funded arbitrage opportunities. However, rising Stock Connect volumes and easing by the People’s Bank of China – triggering a convergence between onshore and offshore rates – will remove current funding advantages.

China: Stock Connect through train steams ahead
November 2014
The eagerly awaited Stock Connect system connecting Hong Kong to the mainland is up and running to relief all round. While traditional long-only funds and southbound flows have lagged, market players foresee a new dawn in Chinese equity trading.

The new normal for EMs
November 2014
China, the dollar and oil. All three are moving in novel directions.

ECR: Which way next for Brazil?
November 2014
Experts taking part in Euromoney’s country-risk survey have cast doubt on Brazil as an investment destination in recent years.

Russia central bank attempts rouble crisis circuit-breaker
November 2014
Analysts support the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) response to the collapse of the rouble – abandoning the dollar band and providing new channels to funnel liquidity to the market – arguing it will shift market expectations and could stabilize the currency in the medium-term. In an interview with Euromoney before the move, a CBR official discusses the opportunities and challenges in the regime shift.

Dark clouds still loom over India IPOs
November 2014
The feelgood factor from the election of Narendra Modi as prime minister does not seem to be translating into better fees for IPO bankers – yet.

Brazilian real troubles far from over
October 2014
The decline of the Brazilian real to a nine-year low this week seemed to mark a nadir for a currency buffeted by economic and political concerns. Analysts say, though, that things could get worse before they get better.

Brazil and Mexico follow divergent long-term risk trends
October 2014
Investors should take note: LatAm’s big two have been offering contrasting portfolio options for some time. This year is no exception.

Brazil faces tough future, say economists
October 2014
Vital reforms unlikely; next president will inherit inflation headache.

Russia borrowers strike bullish note over sanctions
October 2014
While sanctions are hitting the Russian markets and pushing up interest rates, senior executives at Sberbank and potash producer Uralkali tell Euromoney the country’s banks and corporates are looking internally and to the east for new sources of financing. But with Russia sliding towards recession, liquidity is vanishing.

Abigail with attitude: Blackstone’s disengagement from Russia
October 2014
I was intrigued to see that Blackstone, the leading private equity firm, is disengaging from Russia.

Russia: Banks will shrug off sanctions
October 2014
Sector profitability holding up; central bank adds dollars to liquidity provision.

The real emerging Europe
October 2014
CEE enthusiasts should not despair just yet. A number of the clouds handing over the region might turn out, on closer inspection, to have a silver lining.

Rajan’s surgical strikes
October 2014
Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan is battling inflation and crony capitalists to open a new chapter in the Asian superpower’s growth story. Rajan – Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year 2014 – reveals his blueprint for reforms and issues a stark warning about the cracks in the global economy.

Central bank governor of the year 2014: Rajan emerges unscathed from Indian baptism of fire
October 2014
Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan’s tough monetary medicine combatted the storm ravaging the deficit-ridden economy in the recent emerging market crisis. Now, he is battling vested interests to arouse a sleepy financial system for over one billion people.

RBI’s Rajan sounds alarm over breakdown in global coordination
October 2014
A lack of international monetary policy coordination and efforts to beef up the IMF to reflect the newfound clout of emerging markets (EMs) raises the risks of trade protectionism and market volatility, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan tells Euromoney.

Looming China crisis adds to eurozone and emerging-market threats - ECR Q3
October 2014
The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.

China trade finance: What lies beneath
October 2014
The surge in China-related trade financing might not be as encouraging as the pure numbers indicate.

South Korea battling for RMB spoils
October 2014
Backed by its robust trading relationship with China, the east Asian nation is the latest fledgling offshore renminbi hub. Market participants shed light on South Korea’s renminbi bid as internationalization of the Chinese currency gathers pace.

Asian bankers bathe in Alibaba afterglow
October 2014
Alibaba lists on NYSE; deal might free up pipeline.

Brazil elections: Don’t bank on Marina
September 2014
Brazil’s business community wants 'anyone but Dilma’ as its next president. But Marina Silva will not be able to deliver everything that business, or the country, needs.

Modi makeover ignites India’s banking leaders
September 2014
In exclusive interviews, leaders of Indian finance reveal how banks, nursing wounds from the recent credit boom, should be set free from the shackles of state control, as reformists raise hopes of a new dawn for Indian capitalism. A jolt, not a tweak, to the financial system is desperately needed.

India: Waiting game continues for foreign investment banks
September 2014
Even in a bullish scenario where a Rajan-Modi dream team unleashes reforms – from PSL to the bond market – in an economic super-cycle that sees public lenders recapitalized, foreign investment banks could still be chasing rainbows in India. It is an over-banked market, with dozens of fee-hungry institutions jockeying for business.

Unchain Indian finance
September 2014
India needs a litany of reforms to unshackle its stalled capitalist project. Modi’s government should take inspiration from the paradox of Singapore’s activist state and strong private sector.

Brics bank: requiem for a dream
September 2014
Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.

Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s problems prompt safety-first approach
September 2014
Private banking clients in Brazil face challenging times, bankers concede. The economy is under pressure and the country could yet suffer stagflation. Furthermore, an unpredictable presidential race leaves markets in limbo. However, bankers are confident their well-educated client base will not over-react, and instead maintain their long-term strategies.

Brazilian public banks: Short-term gain, long-term pain?
September 2014
Dilma Rousseff has told Brazil’s public banks to boost the country’s flagging consumption until the elections with double-digit loan growth. Weakening credit quality and capital ratios are worrying analysts.

Ferraz defends BNDES role
September 2014
It has become normal in Brazil for private-sector banks to express frustration with the scale and cost of BNDES’ presence in financing corporate Brazil. However, given the power of the bank to engage with private-sector financial institutions (either through granting debt lines that are passed through the private banks, or from holding equity stakes in companies that the banks see as clients or potential clients), these criticisms are made off-the-record.

Economic growth: Two-speed Latin America
September 2014
Mexico’s energy reforms should kick-start growth in its lacklustre economy while Brazil appears to have no strategic planning in place.

Brazil: Energy options running dry
September 2014
Election campaign delays rationing; 'pray for rain’ say analysts.

Brazil: Private banks predict end to short-term, tax-free investing
September 2014
Asset allocation hangs on election result; closing the instrument is good news for private banks.

Markets pine for Brazil election game-changer
September 2014
The Brazilian real has been rising in recent weeks on hopes opposition candidate Marina Silva will beat president Dilma Rousseff in a run-off election in October. With the Brazilian economy faltering and the election outcome still on a knife edge, the real’s outlook – and the country’s macro framework, more generally – remains unclear.

Sanctions propel Russia towards Asia
September 2014
Sanctions overs the conflict in Ukraine have closed off western capital markets to some Russian companies, giving Asia an opportunity to take a greater role. But an easy ride in the east is not guaranteed.

Roman Avdeev: Moscow’s most unlikely billionaire
September 2014
Philosopher, philanthropist and father of 23 – Roman Avdeev is a far cry from the stereotype of Russian oligarch. Yet his ownership of Credit Bank of Moscow, one of the country’s fastest-growing lenders, along with canny deal-making in sectors from retail to pharmaceuticals, is fast propelling him up the rich list. And his status as one of Russia’s most independent billionaires gives him a unique insight into the country’s current pariah status.

Russian finance: Moscow’s cash cows
September 2014
Russia’s consumer lenders are the modern face of Russian finance, and could prove resilient to the current crisis.

UAE/India debate: Trade and investment corridor booms

September 2014

The economic ties between the UAE and India have gone from strength to strength in recent years and are set to deepen further. The UAE not only offers India the promise of investment in its creaking infrastructure, but a compelling investment environment for Indian companies and a staging post for expansion. Conversely, Asia’s third largest economy offers Arab companies growth opportunities.

Risk experts remain cautiously optimistic about India’s prospects
September 2014
The sovereign’s fortunes are still improving since the sell-off last year sent the rupee spiralling downwards. With India now back on investors’ radar, Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey contributors offer their thoughts on what lies ahead.

China’s ratings misprice its risk; Hong Kong’s are spot on
September 2014
Disaggregating China’s investor risk into its constituent parts points to less safety in its sovereign bonds than its credit ratings suggest. Hong Kong is a different proposition with experts choosing to ignore its political problems.

China banking: Cinda – on the ball or to the wall?
September 2014
Asset management company Cinda is a stark example of the implausible nature of China’s financial system. It has transformed its business model from an NPL warehouse to what some call a giant shadow bank. With more AMCs in the pipeline, analysts are beginning to question if China understands the risks it is piling up.

Hong Kong sukuk boosts Islamic credentials
September 2014
The debut issue of a five-year $1 billion sukuk this week is a statement of intent from Hong Kong that it is serious about Islamic finance, sending a strong signal to rival financial centres.

Real estate survey 2014: Asia – China takes back seat in Asian real estate
September 2014
The weakness of the Chinese market has prompted the Asian real estate industry to look elsewhere for returns in 2014.

Brazil: Local bonds rally on suppressed FX volatility
August 2014
High relative rates draw investors; elections weigh on rally.

Brazil: Caixa makes a hybrid first
August 2014
Deal sells at par; incentive to call after five years.

Asian private banking and lending eye Russia business
August 2014
The escalating conflict in Ukraine and sanctions placed on Russia by the EU and the US are pushing private Russian money into Asian wealth centres and encouraging the country’s corporates to seek new sources of funding in the region.

How RenCap reflects Russia’s rollercoaster
August 2014
The outrageous swings in fortune of Renaissance Capital over the past 20 years are the stuff of Hollywood legend. But what’s the next instalment for the Moscow-based investment bank? Out of Africa? Or just back to being The Russia House?

HKMA intervention once again prompts debate on US dollar peg
August 2014
Bets of a re-peg of the Hong Kong dollar have resurfaced in the currency markets as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened to inject dollar liquidity to the tune of $9.86 billion several times since July 1 on the back of large inflows into Hong Kong during the past few months.

China: IPOs in line for a ticket on the through train
August 2014
New system connects Shanghai and HK markets; regulations need to catch up.

Brazil: Investors to 'return’ shares from Biosev’s IPO
July 2014
Louis Dreyfus to repurchase 90% of deal; firm commitment IPOs under question.

Rollercoaster rouble freaks analysts
July 2014
The Russian rouble is facing strong headwinds as the political fall-out over the fatal MH17 plane crash and fresh economic sanctions bite, with analysts predicting a tough year ahead for the Bric currency.

China banking risks three times higher than US
July 2014
China’s banking risks have tripled in one year amid a decline in market capitalization for the sector and a rise in debt issuance, as fears over the shadow-banking system grow, according to the latest projections from a systemic risk index, Euromoney can reveal.

China: CIC censured for mismanagement
July 2014
Authorities more strident on standards; wealth fund criticized for lack of due diligence.

Energy prices offer investment plays in Brazil
June 2014
Short-term gains for some energy firms and industrials; longer-term energy strategy review needed.

Brazil's banks face new portability rules
June 2014
Will make loan transfers less attractive for banks; technology a main driver of competition.

Brazil: Rousseff's water torture
June 2014
A lack of rain to fill the dams that power Brazil is becoming a potential crisis. But as experts call for action to protect dwindling reservoirs the government refuses to act, and running the hydrology risk is becoming increasingly dangerous for it.

China helps bridge Russia's investment gap
June 2014
Joint investment fund undertakes new deals; Kazakhstan's nationalized bank sell-offs set to go.

Ukraine FM slams 'not effective' western sanctions
June 2014
The Washington-led sanctions on Russia, as well as officials and associates in the Putin circle, are toothless, Oleksandr Shlapak, Ukraine's post-revolution finance minister, tells Euromoney.

Is Asia Russia's saviour?
June 2014
Hopes that Russian issuers can fund all their needs in Asia's markets are likely to be misplaced. But it will become a more important market for them, sanctions or not.

Is India bouncing back?
June 2014
The world's biggest democracy saw its risk score improve in the lead up to the elections, which might be the start of an upward trend.

India's investment bankers: A la Modi
June 2014
A new government could herald a more lucrative time for investment bankers in India.

China helps bridge Russia’s investment gap
June 2014
Joint investment fund undertakes new deals; Kazakhstan’s nationalized bank sell-offs set to go.

Russian infrastructure investment under pressure
May 2014
Fallout from the Ukraine crisis has not yet hurt the country's planned infrastructure development programme. But sanctions or not, Russia will be hard pushed to meet its long-term target in the domestic finance market alone.

Banks and corporates face severe challenge over Russia sanctions
May 2014
Banks and their corporate clients are scrabbling to get up to speed and comply with a growing slate of US and European sanctions against Russia - or face unlimited fines and imprisonment.

Fed effect vs Modi effect: the rupee-appreciation story
May 2014
After the rupee's spirited rally in line with the ascent of newly installed Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, analysts say rising US yields could undercut the currency, while others claim strong equity inflows and an improvement in the current account suggest appreciation for the rest of the year.

Markets rally on Brazil's downgrade
April 2014
Markets responded positively to the downgrade of Brazil by Standard & Poor's. On March 25, the day after the announcement from the rating agency, the Ibovespa climbed and the real gained on the dollar.

Crimea and punishment: Russian economy goes into a tailspin

April 2014
The battle between the west and Russia over Ukraine is intensifying amid a full-on financial war. Euromoney investigates the foreign-currency credit crunch for Russian borrowers.

Moscow's IFC dreams - another Crimean casualty
April 2014
Russia's adventures in Ukraine are adversely affecting its international issuance. And at home they will stifle ambitions to develop an international financial centre.

Against the tide: Deep freeze - east and west
April 2014
The crisis in Crimea should give the west pause for thought in its relations with eastern European states and with Russia.

Why the biggest victim of rising US yields could be China
April 2014
How rising US short-term rates would complicate China’s credit challenge amid fears that a second, bank-led wave of outflows from emerging markets could be on the horizon.

Capital controls in China are broken; Beijing faces a new 'impossible trinity'
April 2014
The sharp jump in cross-border lending to China in recent years means capital controls are de facto broken. As a result, Beijing faces the "impossible trinity" – an inability to manage exchange rates, monetary policy and allow for free movement of capital, all at the same time. China faces an renminbi-policy crisis just as much as a potential credit crisis.

Financial crisis fears in China overblown – private bank chiefs
April 2014
Euromoney asked the CIOs and strategists of the leading private banks: are you adding or taking away China risk in your portfolios.

China’s banks shake off fear of foreign climes
April 2014
Most have followed their clients’ businesses abroad. Now it’s time for them to learn the lesson of Alibaba’s listing in New York and become true international finance players.

Equities: Harbin underwhelms on HK debut
April 2014
Deal priced at bottom of range; Alibaba finally chooses New York over HK.

Banking in China 2.0
April 2014
Two banking upstarts are resetting the relationships the Chinese have with their boring old state lenders by being convenient and readily understood. Even better, they pay great rates. But the incumbents aren’t taking this new threat lying down.

Russia and the US face war of financial attrition in Crimea battle
March 2014
Russia-US tensions over Ukraine could be the 'first major political conflict that is played out in international financial markets', according to Citi, as sanctions take their bite.

China, India and Russia worst offenders in trapping company cash
March 2014
Treasury professionals of companies with combined annual sales of more than $250 billion have voted China, India and Russia as the worst countries to repatriate company funds from, according to Euromoney's 'trapped cash' pulse survey.

India worse than Iran for repelling foreign company investment: Trapped cash pulse survey
March 2014
International companies are less likely to invest in India than Iran due to the seemingly more onerous regulatory and tax regime of the world's largest democracy, according to a pulse survey conducted by Euromoney.

Economic policy: Investors try to get a sense of Brazil in 2015
March 2014
Post-election policies still hard to predict; fiscal discipline key to investments.

Latin America: Equity dislocation as a fixed-income driver
March 2014
The fundamental dislocation of the region’s equity markets may actually drive DCM issuance in the coming year as a much-stalled pipeline of equity deals turns to M&A in frustration – and DCM deals will be printed to finance this predicted wave.

Ice grips LatAm's equity markets
March 2014
The data is misleading, say analysts; the region’s markets are fundamentally fine. Institutional investors are sticking around, but local companies are finding that they need a convincing story to attract international money.

Latin American capital markets: Competition for HSBC as it builds in equities
March 2014
Itaú strengthens position outside Brazil; equity lull a good time for hiring, says HSBC.

Investment risk: What the fragile five also share
March 2014
Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have more in common than macroeconomic numbers.

Inside View: Ukraine/Russia fallout for private banking
March 2014
Five CIOs discuss asset allocation changes in light of the tension in the border countries.

Ukraine tensions expose fault line in Russia’s economy
March 2014
Russia’s muscular posture on the Crimean region of Ukraine, re-awakening Cold War tensions, threatens to tip the economy into a mild recession and has put a spotlight on the country’s structural weaknesses amid political risk, say analysts.

Banks to brave Russia-Ukraine storm, say analysts
March 2014
While OTP and Raiffeisen are vulnerable to FX losses and a slowdown in Russia and Ukraine, the impact should be manageable, though there are some exceptions.

Rouble to remain steady despite recession risk and Ukraine crisis
March 2014
Although current account deterioration, persistent capital outflows and the Ukraine crisis would seem to weaken rouble, the central bank’s flexible FX regime should keep the currency out of turmoil, say analysts.

China’s country-risk score still sliding
March 2014
Experts lacking faith in the sovereign keep nudging its score downwards, suggesting the rating agencies are too confident in their risk assessment.

Decline of yuan-way bets triggers financial stability fears
March 2014
The longstanding one-way bet on USDCNY has been in disarray, but worse might be to come, as China looks to its FX regime to cope with credit issues, and likely defaults this year, threatening volatility in the structured-product market.

ICBC lays new foundations
March 2014
Chinese bank’s London purchase likely to be followed by other acquisitions in foreign markets.

Making sense of the fragile-five category of emerging-market laggards
February 2014
Although market players discern substantial differences between the fragile-five economies – notably in their current-account profiles – they remain, as a group, especially vulnerable to domestic and international market shocks, says bearish analysts.

Ukraine’s depressing economic bind – and sovereign default risk
February 2014
The scale of Ukraine’s challenge to correct economic balances is staggering, even if a political consensus is reached that would see an IMF support package. What’s more, markets might be understating sovereign default risk given strict debt covenants in the 2015 Russian-backed dollar bond that is sure to be used in a regional chess game, say analysts.

Highly commended CEE deal of the year 2013: Credit Bank of Moscow
February 2014
There was no shortage of bond issuance from emerging Europe in the early part of 2013 before tapering fears set in. While deal sizes and volumes hit record levels, however, innovation was thin on the ground.

Private banking: China Merchants Bank woos second-generation wealthy
February 2014
Wealth preservation a growing focus; succession issues come to the fore.

Private banking: China’s wealth set to overtake Japan's this year – HSBC
February 2014
‘Plenty of work for wealth advisers’ in Asia, says HSBC in a report this week, citing how the region ex-Japan’s wealth will eclipse the US by the end of 2015.

Latin America offers pockets of resilience to EM risk aversion
February 2014
ECR experts’ faith in Chile, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay is rewarded as stronger economies linked to fewer political problems survive the rout, but Brazil slides along with Argentina and Venezuela.

Private banking: The wealthy look abroad as Brazil’s brilliant future dims
February 2014
In the past year the country’s private bank clients have been persuaded of the need to diversify into global investments – not as a panic measure in a time of crisis but as a regular aspect of their allocations.

Brazil: Private banking feels the Batista effect
February 2014
With OGX’s debt issued internationally, there was reportedly little impact from the company’s bond default and October 2013 collapse into bankruptcy on the fixed-income portfolios of Brazil’s private banking clients – fixed income being the largest asset allocation among the vast majority of Brazil’s rich.

LatAm DCM: Frequent issuers eye euro arbitrage
February 2014
Petrobras deal shows swap advantage over dollars; room for more quality issuers but a limited window.

CEE private equity: Back to basics
February 2014
Central and eastern Europe is attractive for private equity houses. But they need to get their priorities right

Africa safe from China slowdown – for now
February 2014
While China’s economic slowdown has had repercussions on global emerging markets, frontier markets – specifically China’s trade partners in Africa – have been relatively insulated from the storm, sheltered in part by their limited financial systems. And, perhaps surprisingly, analysts are sanguine about the outlook for commodity-intensive trade.

Physical ETFs to ease access to China A shares
February 2014
New funds to track both A50 and CSI300 indices; Ucits compliance opens funds to European buyers.

Equity capital markets: China IPOs ride high despite regulator’s action
February 2014
Mainland China leads exchange nationality ranking; Hong Kong IPOs start year to warm sentiment.

Brazil to reap bumper agribusiness harvest
January 2014
The development of the cerrado into arable land will benefit Brazil far more than its oil discoveries.

Land rush on Brazil’s frontier
January 2014
Transport costs have made the country’s agriculture industry uncompetitive. But new infrastructure projects should transform the opportunities some have seen in land values.

Capital flows: Brazil’s investors add outbound capital dynamic
January 2014
Capital inflow down; Brazilian investor outflow up; increasing cooperation between Brazilian and foreign asset managers.

Brazil tries to shrug off a poor run in equities
January 2014
Disappointing end-2013 performance; McKinsey analysis predicts long-term issuance growth.

Russian banking: Stalemate on investment banks’ eastern front
January 2014
Russian and western firms have shovelled millions into investment banks in Russia. Although their ranks are much diminished, they remain dug in: doggedly hopeful, despite little chance of a change in their prospects.

Q&A with VTB CEO Andrey Kostin
January 2014
In an in-depth interview with Euromoney, the head of the powerful Russian state lender discusses domestic bank competition, regulation, credit growth and reveals the impact of state ownership.

Andrey Kostin: The face of Russian capitalism
January 2014
VTB’s chief executive likens his role in Russian banking to that of a surgeon in a state-owned clinic. He’s certainly carved out a strong position in corporate and investment banking. He insists he can operate successfully in Russia’s new state-controlled capitalism, while resisting political pressure. Can he make what critics call his ‘grandiose scheme’ for VTB work?

Emerging-market rout: this time it’s personal
January 2014
Emerging-market assets have fallen thanks to domestic policy risks, rather than Fed-tapering fears, triggering market contagion, as Turkey and Argentina lurched into crisis mode. However, India’s economic rebalancing shows the way forward for EMs out-of-market favour.

Emerging market sell-off as a weak dollar/strong renminbi crisis
January 2014
Is it all China’s fault? The Fed's? Febrile sentiment from the likes of Larry Fink? Argentina? Turkey?  Or all of the above?

Emerging market plunge: Sino the times?
January 2014
Not all emerging markets are in free fall, investors are discriminating between surplus and deficit countries, it’s not all China’s fault, and domestic EM policies matter.

Market is bullish on renminbi internationalization amid China wobbles
January 2014
Concrete advances towards the full tradability of the Chinese currency are at last seemingly being made, helping to rebalance the country’s growth model but heaping on short-term risks to China’s economic and financial stability.

The stock market impact of China’s reforms
January 2014
The country faces many problems in banking, real estate, consumption and demographics that cannot be quickly solved.

Asian M&A: China key to urge to merge
January 2014
Asia Pacific’s moribund M&A market needs promised reforms in China to be effected as soon as possible.

Asian capital markets: Debt enjoys record year as equity rebounds
January 2014
China drives capital markets; convertible bond issues stage a return.

China IPO market set to open in 2014 following regulatory clean-up
January 2014
The mainland Chinese IPO market is set for a comeback this year as China’s Securities Regulatory Commission lifts a ban on new stock market listings as early as January and regulatory overhauls ease risk, analysts say.

Is Brazil as risky as CDS prices suggest?
December 2013
Brazil is a riskier portfolio option than Mexico, according to live data from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, but the data suggest the risk differential is smaller than is currently priced into the credit default swap market.

Brazil’s cup is half full
December 2013
There is too much bearish sentiment towards Brazil - investors shouldn't forget the long-term trends and the fundamental strengths of the economy.

Brazil builds its way to growth
December 2013
BNDES to spend $250.8 billion 2013-16; also seeks to encourage private capital inputs.

Brazilian equities: The OGX effect
If Petrobras is considering an equity transaction in 2014, the implosion of Eike Batista’s OGX group this year won’t be helpful for investors’ perceptions of the risk of Brazil’s oil exploration and production industry.

Petrobras walks the debt/capital tightrope
December 2013
When Brazil’s national oil and gas champion raised $70 billion from a capital increase in 2010, it was trumpeted as a once-in-a-decade event. But as Petrobras nears its self-imposed leverage thresholds, its capital position looks compromised. A sharp cut to its rating or a return to the equity markets looks likely. So why is Brazil’s banking community so scared to discuss it?

Russia’s next-generation investment banks muscle in
December 2013
A new generation of firms are seeking market share from more established players in an already crowded investment-banking scene.

China-German economic ties set for rebalancing
December 2013
Germany’s export machine will be hit by a rebalancing of China's economy, but the special relationship between the world’s second- and fourth-largest economies might provide a springboard for the development of more sustainable economic ties.

London-China ties strengthen as China Construction Bank touts UK business
December 2013
With extended opportunities for UK investors in China through programmes such as the RQFII scheme, China Construction Bank opened its doors this week to London-based investors, signalling the strength of the Sino-UK relationship.

China private equity in transition
December 2013
Strong industry growth over past decade; adverse effect of dearth of IPOs.

Cyclical China bears morph into structural bulls post-plenum
December 2013
China’s once-in-a-generation economic reforms have largely pleased some notable bears, as new policies reflect Beijing’s recognition that a growth-at-all-costs investment-led model is bust, while capital-account opening could help navigate short-term credit challenges.

Latin America banking: Political risk slows China’s progress
December 2013
But expected wave of bank consolidation not forthcoming; hampered in Argentina by high regulatory and political risk.

China consolidates its Latin American presence
December 2013
Recent large-scale Chinese acquisitions and consortium agreements in the LatAm financial and energy sectors indicate the People’s Republic’s continuing interest in the region’s resources.

China: Has FTA snub driven Shanghai’s FTZ?
December 2013
Rush to open free trade zone; aim to facilitate China’s entry into TPP.

China’s crucial Shanghai trade
December 2013
At its Third Plenum, the Communist Party communicated its commitment to economic change. The country’s first free trade zone, in Shanghai, will act as the test bed, but without clarity on any number of policies, will international firms rush to set up shop?

China’s reform agenda
December 2013
The absence of senior officials at the opening of China’s first FTZ doesn’t mean it’s not a priority.

Russia: Too many thrills, too few buyers
November 2013
As growth slows, Russia needs to become less volatile as a market.

South Africa: Five reasons why it’s the worst of the Brics – for now
November 2013
South Africa has, on the face of it, huge strengths: commodities, rule of law, strong institutions and consumption prospects, a social contract – aided by decent incomes per capita – and a sophisticated financial system, among other factors. But it’s failing in five key areas.

Arbitrage a risk in Shanghai free-trade zone
November 2013
The free-trade zone in Shanghai has been depicted as one of the biggest steps towards Chinese economic liberalization, but some analysts argue the risk of arbitrage and a lack of transparency will be difficult to overcome – while there is no consensus on whether policymakers are committed to full-scale capital-market liberalization.

Junk status not on the cards for Brazil, say ECR experts
November 2013
Speculation concerning possible junk status for Brazil might be wide of the mark, according to data from Euromoney Country Risk.

What investors want in Russia
November 2013
Tinkoff has sold a clever story of another kind of Russian bank.

China ‘bad bank’ plan perplexes market amid secret debt workouts
November 2013
The Chinese government says it wants to transform its asset management companies – established to take on growing bad debts in the banking system – into commercially driven enterprises. In reality, a lack of transparency on portfolio loans means analysts are none the wiser as to the scale of the problem and the resolution process for legacy loans.

UK Treasury China-bank charm offensive exposes regulatory arbitrage
November 2013
The UK Treasury’s courtship of Chinese banks highlights, in part, London’s relatively flexible regulatory regime for foreign banks – in contrast to the Fed. It also opens up a broader debate about subsidiarization and global banking models, more generally, amid regulatory turf wars.

China’s latest swap agreement will facilitate trade
November 2013
Swap agreement reflects growing trade; London has competitive advantage.

Equity capital markets: Li looks to IPO market as ParknShop sale fails
November 2013
AS Watson under strategic review; IPO would be Asia’s biggest in three years.

Cash management in Brazil: Local knowledge bears fruit
October 2013
Local banks like to see themselves as uniquely suited to offering cash management services to Brazilian companies. But the global banks are also getting up to speed on idiosyncratic client requirements and local regulation.

Brazil’s real: Playing into speculators’ hands
October 2013
Brazil’s FX swap intervention is arming speculators for further attacks on the real.

Private equity: Cooling Brazil offers PE opportunities
October 2013
Big increase in regional private equity activity; particularly attractive metrics in Brazil.

Debt capital markets: Taper or no, Federation shows Russia demand
October 2013
Issuer ‘comes of age’; creates first euro benchmark.

Tinkoff IPO beats consumer credit fears
October 2013
The IPO of Tinkoff Credit Systems, a Russian consumer finance bank, trounces rivals’ valuations, even as bad debts tick up and tighter regulations loom.

India still a crumbling Bric as China strengthens: ECR Q3 2013
October 2013
India is waning due to its political uncertainties, lagging reforms, slow growth and currency weakness boosting debt.

Agricultural Bank of China economist warns economic reform hinges on politics
October 2013
Xiang Songzuo, chief economist of state-owned ABC, says China’s next raft of reforms – from retooling state-owned enterprises to tackling local government debt burdens and environmental challenges – will involve a disruptive shift in the political system.

US Treasury renminbi undervaluation claim disputed
October 2013
The US government has upped the ante in its criticism of China’s foreign exchange regime, but Lombard Street Research reckons the renminbi is, in fact, overvalued by 30% on a trade-weighted basis, citing, in part, rising unit labour costs and disinflationary pressures.

India still a crumbling Bric as China strengthens: ECR Q3 2013
October 2013
Only China, now the safest of the five Brics, has a higher score compared with the beginning of this year.

Jury still out on China’s commitment to liberalization of financial system
October 2013
The Shanghai free-trade zone (FTZ), China’s grand experiment with liberalizing interest rates and opening its capital account, has only a short window of opportunity to convince the markets that the Communist Party is serious about reform.

Cash management: A revolution in cash for China
October 2013
Demand for sophisticated cash management services in China is rising as the authorities press for greater business efficiency at home and Chinese corporates expand their foreign operations. Renminbi liberalization is another driver.

Make or break time at China’s third plenum
October 2013
High hopes for sweeping reform; Li says country is at crucial juncture.

Shanghai’s FTZ is not a threat
October 2013
The new free-trade zone in Shanghai is much more likely to invigorate Hong Kong as a financial sector than threaten it.

New China import tax might take the heat out of coal
October 2013
On September 3, Beijing announced a 3% tax on coal imports with low calorific value. Some market analysts are concerned that the tax might have a negative impact on Indonesian exports of thermal coal as the levy could remove any price advantages. Between January and July this year, Indonesia accounted for 97% of China’s lignite imports.

Commodities: Adaro fuels Asia’s hunger for power
October 2013
As China’s appetite for commodities appears to be fading, demand for Indonesian coal could also fall, putting the export economy under stress. Mining company Adaro explains why the future is still bright.

International RMB: Luxembourg 1 Rest of Europe 0
October 2013
London should be wary of the Duchy’s ambitions to become Europe’s RMB hub.

Emerging markets: New frontier hands Brics a blow
September 2013
Maybe frontier markets can take the place such economies as Brazil, Russia, India and China held during the past two decades, as growth decelerates and investors tire of the Brics.

G20 wades in on emerging-market rout
September 2013
Hopes are growing that concerted Brics policy action – with the creation of a $100 billion swap fund – and bargain-hunting will help engineer a rebound in sentiment towards EM currencies.

Brazil's economic growth: A test of credibility
September 2013
Despite Roussef’s protestations, only structural reform will put Brazil back on a growth path.

CRT breaks ground for Brazil infrastructure

September 2013
It was second time lucky for the first Brazilian toll-road financing to come to the market without the support of BNDES. The initial attempt ended in confusion. A year later, the revived deal under new leadership faced severe headwinds.

CRT: Building blocks of Brazil’s first project finance bond
September 2013
CRT was a natural candidate to open the project finance bond market in Brazil because the sponsors of Rodovias do Tietê are Atlantia Bertin Concessões (a 50/50 joint venture of Atlantia and Bertin), and Ascendi (a 60/40 joint venture of Mota-Engil and Banco Espírito Santo). They have experience of these structures in Europe.

Brazil markets will instigate policy change – BlackRock
September 2013
BlackRock’s Gerardo Rodriguez Regordosa says he believes that the markets are punishing Brazil for policy mistakes and that this is likely to lead to a shift in economic policy by the government of Latin America’s biggest economy.

Brazil: BNDES strategy confusion
September 2013
The level of commitment of Brazilian development bank BNDES to support new capital market structures to finance infrastructure projects has been thrown into doubt by the bank’s recent strategy.

Brazil oil and gas sector seeks to shake off Batista break-up
September 2013
Capital-hungry borrowers seeking to plug the huge infrastructure deficit in Latin America’s largest economy through international capital markets are hoping Eike Batista’s OGX group will avoid default.

Devil is in the detail in EM currencies
September 2013
Among EM currencies, Morgan Stanley’s strategists named the real, South Africa’s rand, India’s rupee, rupiah and lira the “fragile five”. Still, investors should beware tarring all five with the same brush, some analysts say.

Russian banks play truth or dare
September 2013
During the past three years, Russian banks have plastered over holes in the corporate sector with record profits from retail. The choice now might be between fuelling a bubble or stagnation.

Metal prices bring Rusal more challenges
September 2013
In mid-2013, Rusal had its lowest net debt level since 2008: less than $10 billion, Oleg Mukhamedshin, deputy CEO, tells Euromoney. He says the firm hopes to reduce debt further – from six times ebitda – via internal cashflow, dividends from Norilsk Nickel, assets disposals and new equity issuance.

India continues battle on rupee volatility
September 2013
Raghuram Rajan, the new head of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has his work cut out to turn around the fortunes of India’s economy, with the rupee coming under renewed pressure, having staged a brief recovery immediately following his appointment.

India slowdown sparks debate over threat from shadow financing
September 2013
Concerns are mounting about the risks to India’s financial health posed by a growing shadow banking sector that has helped fund a decade-long investment-fuelled consumption and investment boom. 

China sows seeds for next global downturn
September 2013
The emerging market sell-off since May is just the start of a painful multi-year adjustment process – and China has blazed a trail for the next downturn. Capital abundance, deflationary pressures and imbalanced global demand continue to drive the 15-year cycle of credit booms and busts. 

Big-game hunting for China’s POEs
September 2013
State-owned companies have, until now, set the tone in China. But as economic growth slows and state-driven capital market activity founders, banks are hunting for business from China’s privately owned, ambitious enterprises. 

Bank shortcomings exposed as Chinese economy founders
September 2013
The Chinese economy is growing ever more slowly – probably slipping even faster than officially admitted, and from a base whose size is possibly exaggerated too. In the midst of this, the orthodox banking sector is doing unorthodox things on a grand scale, while being undermined and bypassed by an even more unorthodox grey financial sector. 

China: Government bond futures return after 18 years
September 2013
Risk-control measures in place; further step in economic liberalization. 

Bank hiring practices: US regulators turn spotlight on Hong Kong
September 2013
Banks everywhere hire well-connected employees as standard practice. Why should Hong Kong so grate with US regulators?

Foreign investors wary of China onshore risks
September 2013
The preferred method for playing Chinese credit markets remains the dim sum bond market, say analysts, as China’s expansion of access to its onshore market is met with a cool reception by foreign investors. 

Jin-Yong Cai: An activist at the IFC
September 2013
The new head of the International Finance Corporation, Jin-Yong Cai, tells Euromoney about the need for the World Bank’s private-sector arm to take more risks and be more activist in developing policy ideas in such areas as infrastructure development and poverty reduction. 

Emerging market FX growth underperforms broader market
September 2013
Emerging market (EM) currencies are expected to continue to expand their share of the $5.3 trillion-a-day global forex market despite the turmoil, with China’s RMB leading the charge.

Brazil risks becoming latest emerging-market victim of stagflation as economy falters
September 2013
Brazil’s recovery is being cut off at the knees by a set of economic challenges that have all come home to roost – from a depreciating currency and rising current-account deficit to structural problems, including an overdependence on credit-fuelled consumption. 

Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s private banks adapt to a changing economy
August 2013
Wealthy Brazilians’ traditional dependence on positive real interest rates for investment returns has been undermined. Euromoney’s roundtable of private bankers discusses how wealth managers are developing new investment opportunities for their clients and how those clients are responding.


Debt market for Brazilian oil and gas thaws, but outlook icy
August 2103
Brazilian capital markets are showing signs of life again after a particularly torrid summer as industrial conglomerate Odebrecht priced a $1.7 billion nine-year bond. But investor wariness towards Latin America’s largest economy persists. 

IPO guarantees threaten Brazil market, say bankers
August 2013
Recent Brazilian IPOs have incorporated novel support structures in an attempt to generate demand, but some ECM bankers warn that the movement away from traditional bookbuilding might damage, rather than help, the troubled primary issuance market.

Brazil: Corporate slowdown puts focus on insolvency law
August 2013
The slowdown in the growth of the Brazilian economy after the recent big expansion in corporate issuance into the international and domestic capital markets has put the focus on the efficacy of Brazil’s relatively recent (2005) insolvency law. 

Latin America: Bankers caught in valuation divide
August 2013
Brazil is the biggest culprit: traditionally the largest M&A market in Latin America, the aggregate deal value of $30.7 billion in the first half of 2012 fell to $19 billion in the first half of this year.

Russian central bank: Nabiullina makes a splash in first policy meeting
August 2013
Elvira Nabiullina’s post policy-meeting press conference in July was a first both for her and for the Russian central bank, which she joined as governor on June 24. And although the central bank kept its main policy rates on hold, Nabiullina was by no means short of things to talk about.

Is Kazakhstan a safer bet than Russia?
August 2013
Kazakhstan is set to remain the safest country in central Asia, and as the economy diversifies away from hydrocarbon and mineral reserves, it could soon precede Russia in the Euromoney Country Risk rankings. 

India battles to control rupee volatility as Fed tapering nears
August 2013
The Indian rupee is likely to remain under pressure despite central bank efforts to slash spot dollar demand, including lending dollars from its reserves to state-run oil companies, but analysts are split over its prospects for the rest of the year. 

Can RBI governor-designate Raghuram Rajan save India?
August 2013
With India’s faltering economy lurching from bad to worse the country’s central bank governor-designate has his work cut out to tackle problems ranging from a falling currency and high inflation to urgently needed structural reforms. 

Rupee depreciation exerts costly toll on India's risk profile
August 2013
India’s ECR score hits a three-year low as spiking inflation and a plunging rupee exact a heavy economic toll at a time of fragile growth. 

China struggling to balance growth imperative with structural reform
August 2013
China’s economy is embarking on a new and critical phase of development as the country attempts to navigate its way beyond growth for growth’s sake to create an economy that serves the needs of its people.

Chinese bond market on long and winding road to maturity
August 2013
Despite the strides China is making in the development of its $2.7 trillion government bond market, it remains structurally inefficient, thanks to meagre trading volume in an asset class strangled by the country’s fixed interest rate regime. Calls are growing for greater efforts to develop the government and corporate bond market structure in a bid to boost the efficiency of savings and non-bank financing.

China Retail Gold Survey 2013: China’s gold market takes its own path
August 2013
Activity and prices remain buoyant in China’s gold markets despite the slip in prices in the west.

Latin American asset management: Bram targets US after Japan’s appetite wanes
July 2013
Bradesco Asset Management (Bram) has established a US subsidiary and has begun to build relationships with distribution managers in the US and Canada to sell Bram’s proprietary funds to north American institutional investors.

Latin American Awards for Excellence 2013: Brazil
July 2013
Brazilian retail banks have long enjoyed a large and profitable domestic market. But the government’s attempt to lower interest rates, first with dramatic cuts to the base rate and then by pressuring the state banks to expand credit, has changed the tone in the market. 

Brazil: The positives of protests
July 2013
Bears thrive on accelerating inflation, weak growth and a falling real. But a positive, reforming response to protests might transform sentiment in Brazil. 

Brazil worst performer in Latin America
July 2013
The largest South American economy is considered the region’s most vulnerable by economists in June's ECR risk survey, amid an EM bond and equity sell-off. 

Russia and CIS satellites failing to impress – ECR Q2 2013 results
July 2013
With one or two exceptions, the majority of former Soviet independent states, alongside Russia, have become riskier this year, continuing longer-term trends. 

Central and Eastern Europe Awards for Excellence 2013: Russia
July 2013
The first quarter of 2013 showed the effect of a more difficult rate environment for Russia’s biggest bank, but in 2012 Sberbank proved that it could continue to increase its profit, even after spectacular rises in 2011 and 2010. 

India at a watershed as it confronts the spectre of stagflation
July 2013
The Brics economies are all experiencing difficult growing pains, but India is probably most at risk of being left behind, afflicted by slowing growth and a raft of legacy structural problems it failed to tackle in the good times.

Asian Awards for Excellence 2013: India
July 2013
Competition in India remains fierce.

China wrestles with data-accuracy conundrum amid global spotlight
July 2013
The veracity of official data from China has long been questioned due to inconsistencies, missing key indicators or massaging of the numbers for political reasons. Now the stakes seem higher: the rise in the shadow banking system and question marks over the accuracy of economic and industry data add to fears that calculating systemic leverage in China’s economy is mission impossible.

China: Bankers welcome China clampdown
July 2013
Bankers focus on positives; say authorities will strike right balance.

China: People’s Bank stays firm to calm fears
July 2013
Funding squeeze reaches peak; PBoC to safeguard stability.

Asian risks fragment in light of countervailing trends in China and Japan – ECR Q2 2013 results
July 2013
China and Japan’s contrasting trends create a more even split of safer and riskier sovereigns across Asia as 12 countries see lower scores, 10 push higher and six are unchanged.

China RMB debate: The renminbi’s road to full internationalization
July 2013
Euromoney’s debate involving leading executives in Asian financial services throws light on the Chinese currency’s progress to full international status and the likely developments that will hinder and advance the process.

Currencies the best way to hedge against China crash
July 2013
Investors looking to insure against the probability of a hard landing in China should look to the currency market. 

Taming of China shadow banks crimped by archaic regulatory structure
July 2013
The rapid, seemingly uncontrolled, expansion of China’s shadow banking sector is under intense scrutiny because of the risks it poses to the banking system, and the economy itself, but also because the sector is largely unregulated. Urgent steps are needed to beef up regulatory vigilance as China seeks to engineer a contraction of credit to levered sectors.

China’s war on shadow financing raises spectre of credit crisis
July 2013
Fears are growing that a concentration of bad debt in China’s informal lending or shadow financial sector, is a ticking time-bomb that might not only weigh on economic growth and stoke inflation but could cause a far more damaging banking crisis. 

Renminbi overvalued by 30%; China macro risks rise
July 2013
The appreciation of China’s renminbi in the face of deteriorating economic fundamentals and global disinflation represents a new normal in China’s political economy, but opinion is split about whether the currency is overvalued.