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Capital Markets

Poland bucks the European trend

The country isn’t facing the same problems as its European neighbours. Strong GDP growth, a relatively low deficit and robust monetary policies make it one of the best emerging market sovereign borrowers.

Poland is fast becoming a favoured sovereign borrower – not just in developing market terms, but in a broader European sense as well. It was the only EU country to avoid recession in recent years, while economic growth in recent quarters has remained above 4%. Positive sentiment has run strong among investors and analysts since they changed their views on the country at the end of 2009.

"At the beginning of 2009, investors weren’t that interested in Poland. Investors pigeonholed central and eastern Europe the same for investment purposes although there were huge difference between places like Poland and countries such as Romania and Bulgaria. The picture was bleak," says Marcin Mrowiec, chief economist and head of macro research at Bank Pekao in Poland. "But towards the end of 2009, there was a turning point in Poland: it was the only EU country to grow, and this drew the attention of international investors."

Heinrich Pecina, senior partner of Vienna Capital Partners, takes a similar view: "Poland is no longer necessarily seen as a central and eastern European country but as part of the Nordic economic region. This is increasingly reflected in treasury yields and CDS levels."

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