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Risky business in 2012

Next year sees a slew of key political elections representing nearly 50% of global GDP


2012 is shaping up to be another year of uncertainty.


As highlighted by Rebecca Patterson, Chief Markets Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management:

 


• The coming 12 months will see more than a dozen key elections around the world, in countries representing nearly 50% of global GDP
• With global growth relatively fragile, politics and potential policy shifts will likely get heightened market attention
• Politics matters not just for respective countries’ markets but in some cases, for global financial trends
• Key politically related market risks we’d highlight into next year include:

(1) potentially higher oil prices tied to supply worries
(2) Asian market volatility tied to regional geopolitics
(3) unexpected shifts in Euro area politics impacting regional markets as well as global sentiment



Check out the key diagrams from the analysis:



How political events' influence could reach beyond borders
 
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, October 2011 


Timeline of elections 
 
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 


Next year will certainly be a game changer in terms of the impact the elections will have on the world economy.


- Euromoney Skew Blog



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