Bric: special focus

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Euromoney's recent coverage of macroeconomic, FX, fixed income and equity market trends in Brazil, Russia, India and China.


Brazil: special focus

Russia: special focus

India: special focus

China: special focus

Emerging markets: special focus

Latin America: The sucking sound of Brazilian interest rates 
November 2016

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Brazil’s economy leads the world in high interest rates. It is a blessing for banks but a burden on the economy – draining resources away from both new investment and consumption. Will new credit platforms finally jolt the established banks into a competitive response where previous strategies have failed?

Banco do Brasil strives to turn a corner
November 2016 
New management aims to rebuild core equity; attractive valuation if it avoids equity issuance.

Latin America: Investment bankers optimistic for upturn 
November 2016 
Revenues still depressed by poor ECM; DCM and M&A resilient but at low levels.

Russia investment banking: VTB Capital faces down the doubters 
November 2016 
Russia’s leading investment bank has seen its fortunes fluctuate over the past two years. Alexei Yakovitsky, VTB Capital’s chief executive, talks to Euromoney about Brexit, Africa and state ownership and explains why sanctions have proved more of a blessing than a curse.

China and India: A tale of two New York IPOs 
November 2016 

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ZTO Express underlines US affection for ambitious Chinese firms; Azure Power shows how much farther India’s have to go.

Subramanian’s brief moment of online passion 
November 2016 
Pity Arvind Subramanian – he has a tough enough job as it is as chief economic adviser to the government of India without further distraction.

China’s swap shop tries to avoid swamping banks 
November 2016 
New debt-equity swap measures tackle corporate debt load; bank NPLs are already rising.

Brazil: BMG’s short-sighted asset sale to Itaú 
October 2016 
Sale of JV stake will boost capital ratios but adds strategic uncertainty, while the acquisition further strengthens Brazil’s largest private bank.

Brazil: Itaú acquisition raises competition concerns 
October 2016 
Citi exit increases concentration; lack of competition 'causing economic damage’.

Brazil: BM&F Bovespa’s room for recovery in question 
October 2016 
Exchange already 'toppish’, valuations suggest; Bovespa argues internationalisation adds differentiation.

Central Bank of Brazil fluffs its lines 
October 2016 
Brazil’s central bank chief has missed a great opportunity to address its uncompetitive banking sector.

Russia: Teplukhin reunites Troika team for new boutique 
October 2016
Matrix Capital to offer fund management, advisory; 'perfect fit’ for global banks in era of Russia pullback.

India’s resurgent IPO market banks on insurance 
October 2016 
ICICI Prudential Life reinvigorates IPOs; slew of smaller listings ready to follow.

Asia banking: China’s shadow monster can’t be stopped 
October 2016
Sector is opaque, distorting and unstable; banks 'lending where they shouldn’t be’.

China: Postal Savings spreads the love 26 ways
October 2016

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Bank sets record for bookrunners on a single deal; raises $7.4 billion but only thanks to cornerstones.

Asia: Why Hong Kong needs to curb cornerstone epidemic
October 2016

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The dominance of cornerstone tranches in Chinese IPOs represents a raw deal for other investors – and needs to stop.

ECR survey results Q3 2016: China, Italy, Nigeria mar stabilizing global outlook 
October 2016

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The calming of the political shock of Brexit, with oil prices now receiving Opec support, is preventing global risks from worsening, yet with a referendum looming in Italy, elections in the US and Europe to come, not to mention frail banks and several countries mired in difficulties, it might be the calm before another global storm.

Asia real estate: Divorce? It’s the best deal in China 
October 2016 
Decoding the Chinese property market has always been a challenging science, but even the savviest analysts may not have appreciated one unlikely driver: divorce rates.

Latin America: Brazilian brokers wave the offside flag 
September 2016

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Since demutualization, Brazil’s stock exchange, the BM&F Bovespa, has become hugely profitable and powerful but the majority of its brokers are struggling for survival. Doubts remain as to whether their mutual interests can be realigned but there is little sympathy for the brokers.

Latin America fintech: Brazil’s digital puzzle
September 2016 
New regulation in the pipeline to cover fintech companies; large banks wary of cannibalisation of revenues.

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Financial inclusion: Biometric banking and the $600 billion opportunity 
September 2016 
An extraordinary revolution is taking place in digital banking in India. Driven by the state, it is anchored on a billion-strong biometric database to finally bring financial inclusion to a country that needs it more than any other. Banks may face a binary outcome: be quick or be dead.

Understanding India’s push into biometrics
September 2016 
From Aadhaar to iSPIRT – your guide to Indian biometrics.

How financial inclusion will change the face of banking
September 2016 

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Technology is finally bringing banking services to the unbanked in both developing and developed markets. While technology companies are driving this transformational shift, it looks increasingly likely that traditional banks will ultimately be service providers. They have everything to gain if they can form partnerships and create a long-term strategy.

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Asia: Bhattacharya stakes her reputation on transforming State Bank of India
September 2016 
Arundhati Bhattacharya already had one of the toughest jobs in India as chairman of State Bank of India. Not only is it the country’s largest financial institution, but it is also woven inextricably into India’s social fabric. She has made her job harder still by proposing a seven-sided bank merger. But as technological innovation increases and as asset quality plunges across public banks, bigger may not necessarily be better.

Asia: State Bank of India – communicating to the masses and turning to tech 
September 2016 
Arundhati Bhattacharya is an SBI veteran: she joined in 1977.

China private banking debate: Wealth managers look to a world of opportunity
September 2016 

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China’s leading lenders are opening private banking offices across the world to cater to their wealthiest clients. But all global wealth managers face the same challenges: rising regulations; the need to maximize internal resources by targeting the right markets and clients; and the rise of technology.

China rings changes in homegrown bond markets 
September 2016 
New deals show innovation; mounting concern about defaults.

China looks forward to second phase of CIPS
September 2016 
As the China International Payment System (CIPS) approaches its first anniversary, there is much anticipation around how the second phase of the project will impact RMB settlement volumes.

Bulge bracket gets slimmer in Asian investment banking revenues
September 2016

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Euromoney’s sister company Dealogic released a set of data on Monday confirming what many international bankers in Asia have feared for some time: that they are becoming less relevant and are losing their lunch to local, chiefly Chinese, rivals.

Brazil improving, but Olympian feat required to reclaim investment grade
August 2016

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A cyclical recovery is under way yet huge fiscal problems remain, and whether progress is sustained depends on structural reforms, risk experts caution.



Latin America: Lacerda plays a grown-up game 
August 2016 
The downturn in Brazil does not faze Ricardo Lacerda, founding partner of local investment bank BR Partners. Advisory remains the bedrock of his business, but political instability makes him think the next five years could undermine the last 20.

Brazilian banks’ share rally to falter? 
August 2016 
Best global performers so far this year; Rally technical; fundamentals remain poor.

Russia: Is Alrosa a diamond deal or fake sparkler?
August 2016 
US investors shun Russian privatization; global banks not required, say locals.

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Asia: Driven Kapoor breaks the mould 
August 2016 
Yes Bank, started just 12 years ago, is one of India’s fastest growing lenders – and the most interesting by far. Its founder and CEO sits down with Euromoney to discuss risk management, cost cutting, divine intervention and why he doesn’t do the 'wow’ factor.

Reserve Bank of India: Why did Rajan go?
August 2016 
All eyes are on the expected appointment of a new Reserve Bank of India governor, but nobody is quite clear why there needs to be a new one.

Masala debut at last
August 2016 
HDFC launches first corporate masala bond; others may be slow to follow.

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Asia: CCB’s Wang is alert to China’s challenges 
August 2016 
China Construction Bank is not alone among the country’s big four banks to claim it changed its lending policy before the rise in bad debts. But in chairman Wang Hongzhang, CCB has a leader who thinks differently.

Temasek hit by China volatility
August 2016 
Posts 9.02% loss for 2015-16; sovereign fund reshapes portfolio.

China retail gold survey 2016: China steps towards gold dominance 
August 2016
As the Shanghai Gold Exchange introduces a new benchmark, the country now leads in gold production, consumption and imports.

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China Retail Gold Survey 2016: Results Index
August 2016

Brazil: What’s the Portuguese for backbone? 
June 2016 
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Brazil might develop a more mutually beneficial equities market, but history suggests it won’t. 

June 2016 
Political risk no longer driving equity performance; privatizations on investors radar. 

June 2016 
Petrobras opens way for strong Brazilian pipeline; Argentina sovereign praised for helping deal flow.

M&A: China’s new language of acquisition 
June 2016 
Chinese M&A ambition is good news for banks chasing advisory fees but soaring debt levels give cause for concern.

China’s Big Four ready for bad debt challenge
June 2016 
Bank chairmen confident they can tackle NPL problem; Chinese economy undergoing necessary restructuring.

Brazil and Argentina: A tale of two debt stories
May 2016 

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Argentina and Brazil are heading in opposite directions.

Latin America: As Brazil falls, private equity rises
May 2016 
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Every cloud has a silver lining, and private equity firms are pretty good at finding them. Is that why they are now targeting crisis-hit Brazil? Have they learnt from their poor recent performance?

Brazil: Corporate default fear drives impeachment 
May 2016 
Markets rally on Rousseff’s woes; corporations pressure politicians.

Country risk: India takes a rain check, but it’s no monsoon 
May 2016 
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Its sovereign risk score has eased back this year as doubts begin to creep in, but India remains worthy of investment grade.

Asia: Good news for a multilateral future 
May 2016 
China’s commitment to common standards for development banks is welcome news.

Brazilian issuers eye securitization funding
April 2016 
Cheapest access to dollars: politics helps mask economic realities.

Brazil: Disposals help BTG Pactual pass liquidity test
April 2016 
Shores up confidence; retains minority Swiss bank stake.

April 2016 
Citi JV opts for Hong Kong for IPO, but should it have gone six months ago?

Asia: China's moment of truth
April 2016 
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China has a future rich with potential: a liberalized currency, an open capital account, state lenders and technology giants offering innovative banking services to a vibrant private sector. But Beijing’s leaders face a growing problem: a two-speed China. Now is not the time for them to drag their feet over reform.

China: Corporates face toxic threat of debt 
April 2016 
Corporate debt at record high; NPLs at state lenders also on rise.

Euromoney Country Risk survey results Q1 2016: Heightened concern over Brazil, China and other EMs accentuates global shock prospects
April 2016 
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Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.

Panda breath: China fears dislocation, not doomsday 
April 2016 
Polemicists arguing either side of this coin toss abound, from water coolers to Republican primaries. Where once markets drew direction from the pronouncements of Alan Greenspan, they now rise and fall on Chinese numbers. Ironically, no one actually believes the official numbers that China puts out.

VTB and Russian Post go large on retail
March 2016 
Timing is right for Post Bank launch, says chairman. Branch network 'will be bigger than Sberbank’s’.

India: Globalizing the rupee
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March 2016 
China is well on the way to creating a global currency, with a little help from the IMF. But what of India, the other economy set to dominate the 21st century? Will the rupee come to rival the renminbi and the dollar, or will poor planning and weak infrastructure undermine its ambitions?



Country risk: The compelling case for a China downgrade 
March 2016 
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Talk of a crisis is overblown, but the world’s most populous nation is still struggling to convince the experts, as its risk score declines.

China A-shares set for MSCI index breakthrough
March 2016
QFII reforms will open up access to domestic stocks; China will have big weighting in EM.

Hong Kong IPOs: Goodbaby, goodnight
March 2016
Every now and then a barometer deal comes around: one whose outcome shows the market what to expect. One such was Goodbaby China Holdings, set to be a deal that showed there was still scope to launch IPOs, even mainland Chinese IPOs, in Hong Kong, despite volatility.

Brazil loses monetary lever
February 2016
The Central Bank of Brazil is facing a credibility struggle, making it even harder for investors to predict when country’s turnaround will come.

Private banking: Ways to win with India’s wealthy
February 2016
India has been a tough market for global wealth managers, ground down by rising costs and regulation. But private wealth is growing fast, offering long-term profit for those with patience and persistence.

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Emerging markets: Big trouble from brittle China
February 2016
The January fall in emerging market currencies, the exodus of foreign capital and a global bear market in equities all point to a new financial crisis. How China reacts to this threat holds the key for emerging markets.

Panda breath – Street food for thought
February 2016

With the energy of frustrated followers of Nostradamus finally finding vindication, market-watchers pounced on China’s opening-bell volatility as confirmation that the end, finally, was nigh.


Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2015: China, Brazil and South Africa lead EM credit rout
January 2016

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Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.

Brazil: BTG fights for survival
January 2016
Esteves’ exit fails to slow outflows; oil and gas exposure in spotlight.

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January 2016
International investors will swiftly return to Latin America if they see clear evidence of economic progress.

January 2016
Brazil or Argentina need to spark revival; Latin America investment banking’s worst year since 2009.

Scrapping over the scraps – a dog-eat-dog world in CEE IB
January 2016
Investment-banking volumes in emerging Europe have fallen to their lowest levels for more than a decade. Some international banks are withdrawing capacity, while there is little sign of a pick up in the capital markets. So why are some of the universal banks still making positive noises?

January 2016
VTB Capital cemented its position as Moscow’s leading investment bank last year. With cross-border deals for Chinese and Indian clients it is becoming more than just the adviser of choice for Russian corporates. But will the firm’s ambitions get the better of it? 

Fear and loathing in Beijing rattles Chinese brokers
January 2016
Arrests, disappearances and suicides rock industry; investor unease at hard-nosed Beijing.

Brazil: BNDES – extrication impossible
December 2015
With a struggling economy, Brazil will continue to rely heavily on its state development bank to provide long-term finance for crucial infrastructure projects, unless private-sector alternatives can be found.

Russia payments bid unlikely to be swift
December 2015
While irked by western dominance of Swift and determined to assert its monetary independence, the prospect of Russia going it alone on payments and messaging remains remote.

Indian IPOs: back in vogue, for now
December 2015
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ECM re-emerges from lengthy slump; foreign investors jump on slew of mid-sized IPOs.

China: Ex-regulator calls for market reforms
December 2015

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Gao urges SOE defaults; financial reform should precede capital liberalization.

Economists sombre on China monetary trap
December 2015
Dollar dominance continues; RMB inclusion in IMF reserve basket symbolic.

AIIB spells out conservative approach
December 2015
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New Asia lender caps lending at $100 billion; dollars, not RMB, will fund projects.

China domestic reform: do or die
December 2015
China is pushing ahead with capital account reforms but it needs to make sure its own house is in order first.

Country risk: Hungary, India and Thailand among EMs resilient to shocks
November 2015
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"Income shocks have been the name of the game for emerging Asia in 2016. Not everybody has suffered. India is the big winner."

China's international payment system gathers steam
November 2015
One month in and it’s a case of so far so good for the China International Payment System (CIPS), even allowing for limitations in operating hours.

South Africa on critical list as Brics keep falling
November 2015


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The borrower’s fundamentals are pointing to a downgrade that would chalk up a trio of Brics on junk status based on S&P’s metrics.

Brazil seeks foreign help for infrastructure
November 2015
Guarantees to aid private sector flows; BNDES scaling back but still dominant player.

Brazil private sector banks: Pessimism takes root
November 2015
Toxic outlook for economy and NPLs; impact of higher NIM sparks debate.

LatAm central banks: Monetary policymakers need fiscal friends
November 2015
The Brazilian real has fallen against the dollar by more than any other major world currency, exacerbating already high inflation (approaching 10%) and the Brazilian central bank has been much more active.

Global buyers snap up Russian corporate debt
November 2015
Russia is a safe haven, say bankers; local liquidity holding back supply.

India: Rajan reveals Masala bond rules
November 2015

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Annual cap of $750 million, five-year maturity; corporates, real estate and investment trusts can issue.

Chinese corporates reassess FX hedging
November 2015

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Having done well from their exposure to the RMB during the past decade, the currency’s surprise devaluation in mid-August should force Chinese companies to brush up on hedging strategies that were rusty at best, but many are instead simply focusing on opportunistic borrowing strategies.

China's balancing act on exchange rate
October 2015
China's quarter-point rate cut last Friday is the latest attempt to revive a flagging economy. But although currency liberalization is on the agenda in the longer term, the People's Bank of China is unlikely to be ready to cede control of the renminbi’s de facto dollar peg just yet as depreciation pressures grow.

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Brics take the road less travelled
September 2015
Emerging markets are working for a multipolar monetary world. Beijing is spearheading the push to establish rivals to the World Bank to globalize the renminbi, establish markets for its excess capacity and plug the infrastructure deficit. But, for now, a post-Bretton Woods era is fantasy.




New Brics lenders redraw multilateral map
September 2015
Top emerging market officials reveal the ambitions of the new Sino-led development institutions. But emerging markets ignore the opportunity costs of state-led project financing at their peril.
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Brazil central bank: We thought 'good times would last forever'
October 2015
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Commodity exports overvalued the real; manufacturing went 'down the drain'.

Country risk survey results Q3 2015 dominated by China’s jitters, Brazilian crisis and EM capital shock
October 2015
With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.

Brazil: Downgrade sparks fears of sell-off spiral
October 2015
IRB Brasil Re delays IPO pricing; debt markets down 52% on year.

Latin America investment banking: Fees’ big freeze
October 2015
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Investment banking fees in LatAm are on the way down and international banks face a tricky choice of whether to stick or twist.

Emerging Europe: Tinkoff defies Russian consumer squeeze
October 2015
Bad debts spark second wave of sector losses; CEO says low-cost, credit card model key to success.

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Steely Nabiullina fights Russia’s fires
October 2015
Elvira Nabiullina, Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year, is staunchly sticking to her controversial crisis-fighting plan as Russia reels from its biggest financial crisis since 1998. As sanctions and falling commodity prices threaten Putin’s oil-financed state patronage, the central bank – the last bastion of economic orthodoxy – is battling to craft a new growth model. Can Nabiullina turn crisis into opportunity?


Nabiullina rages against the banking machine
October 2015
In 2013, Russia’s central bank became a mega-regulator, overseeing a slew of credit institutions, from banks, insurance agencies, investment vehicles, micro-finance houses to pawnshops. That makes Elvira Nabiullina the most powerful central banker in modern Russian history.

China ponders privatization conundrum
October 2015
Beijing plan to privatise slew of SOEs: Analysts fear concentration of power.


Brazil private banking debate: Private bankers cushion the blows in Brazil
September 2015
The country’s economy is going through tough times, putting a greater onus on private bankers to look after their clients’ investments. An emphasis on overseas diversification of portfolios is crucial. However, domestic investments still take up the greater share and require careful management.

Infrastructure finance: Projecting Brazil’s future
September 2015
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The Brazilian government is pinning its hopes on infrastructure finance to boost GDP growth and help woeful productivity rates. But the source of finance and the viability of some of the proposed projects mean that an infrastructure-led recovery won’t be coming to Brazil’s rescue any time soon.

Brazil banking: Bradesco buoyant, HSBC on back foot
September 2015
Brazil deal lifts Bradesco; UK bank fights to retain Mexico.
Brazil banking: Beyond the blame game
September 2015
It is time for Brazil’s central bank to encourage some competition and shake up the cosy world of its domestic institutions.

Markets mull Brazil junk-rating impact
September 2015
Battle-ready long-term investors could pick up equity and debt on the cheap, according to research, as S&P finally cuts Brazil to junk after Euromoney Country Risk rankings.

Central Bank Governor of the Year 2015: Nabiullina displays crisis-fighting skills
September 2015
Central Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina is using orthodox but painful policy measures to combat the oil- and sanctions-driven storm that is ravaging the economy.

Nabiullina named Euromoney Central Bank Governor of the Year 2015
September 2015
Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Central Bank of Russia, has been named Euromoney’s Central Bank Governor of the Year for 2015.

Igor Kim: Russia's great consolidator
September 2015
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A prolific bank buyer but notoriously publicity-shy, Igor Kim is little known outside his native Russia. In his first major interview with the international media, he talks about expanding into Europe, surviving a spell on Canada’s sanctions list and why global banking models are doomed to failure.

Special report: China's leading cities
September 2015

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The hubs in the New Silk Road.

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September 2015
Overall results

China private banking debate: Managing a wealth of riches in China
September 2015
The nation’s private banking industry is blossoming, but even as it flourishes, leading players have to move fast to keep up with a changing market and an increasingly demanding and diverse client base. Euromoney gathered together a panel of private bankers, wealth managers and economists to discuss the market’s key issues in July.

Chinese investment banks: Calmer chameleons
September 2015
Asia’s growing band of big, local investment banks won’t let short-term market fluctuations affect their planned transitions from national to regional leadership.

China's leaders hit the panic button
September 2015
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Look beyond the gyrations of its stock markets, and you can see one thing clearly in China: equivocation. The regime of Xi Jinping is fundamentally flawed because of its public espousal of the markets, but private refusal to cede any real control. Optimists hope the latest crisis could be the impetus for real reform. Most experts warn investors hoping for a recovery in their stock purchases not to hold their breath.

China starts market mayhem blame game
September 2015
Market propped up by $200 billion in July and August; brokerage probes undermine drive to reform.

Sideways: China can learn from Goldman
September 2015
China’s struggle to communicate effectively with markets was demonstrated by its scapegoating of journalists for supposedly worsening the crash in local stock prices.

Emerging-market crisis is key test for banks
September 2015
Lenders were offered a valuable real-life stress test in late August, when investor concerns about the Chinese authorities’ bungled response to slowing growth in China following the devaluation of the yuan led to plunging Chinese and world equity prices, slumping commodity valuations and spikes in volatility across currency and securities markets.

China stuns markets with sudden currency devaluation
September 2015
Everyone knew a revaluation of renminbi was coming sooner or later, yet China's announcement, including reform of the dollar fixing mechanism, caught many off guard. The move left observers debating whether it was stimulating its economy or acquiescing to calls for exchange-rate liberalization.

Latin America: Average deal fees slump
August 2015
The region saw 40% less issuance than in the same period last year – with the slump in Brazilian issuance to blame for lower revenues.

Russia: Moscow IPOs come under fire
August 2015
More secondary listings likely; consumer, tech, export stocks in focus.

IPOs: We need to talk about Russia
August 2015
Two successful IPOs should have been good news for the country’s markets – if anyone had bothered to tell the world more about them.

SWF: Temasek rides China wave to near 20% return
August 2015

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Over one quarter of fund invested in China; concern over volatility exposure.

China: Stock meltdown prompts market intervention
August 2015
Foreign investors pull Rmb40.5 billion in two weeks; average P/E ratio still 66 times.

Heightened risks threaten Brazil’s investment grade
July 2015
Latin America’s largest market and one of its hottest investment prospects only a few years ago is now rocking from a confluence of negative factors undermining creditworthiness.

Brazil: Project bond push called into question
July 2015
Government seeks private investors; buyers 'not fully aware’ of the risks.

Gap in Brazil’s infrastructure projects
July 2015
Plans to involve the capital markets seem to be attracting the wrong investor – one who might not understand the risks.

Country Awards for Excellence 2015: Latin America – Brazil
July 2015
Best bank and best investment bank.

Banking: Playing the long game in Russia
July 2015
Banks are prepared to sit through a couple of lean years in emerging Europe’s largest market, given that it will bounce back eventually. They might not want to get too optimistic though.

Country Awards for Excellence 2015: Central & Eastern Europe and Baltics
July 2015
The impact of international sanctions, economic slowdown and a plunging rouble was felt throughout the Russian banking sector last year.

Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2015: In search of safe havens with Greece on the brink
July 2015
Although India lags China in terms of its economic development, and is vulnerable to shifting market sentiment, its growth is expected to be stronger than China’s, and its external risks have eased.

Country risk expert insight – Q1 results: India
July 2015
The results of the latest Euromoney Country Risk quarterly survey saw India’s risk score rise 0.61 points. Year-on-year, the score is up by an impressive 2.72 points. With a score of 52.74, the country sits at 56 in the global ECR rankings. ECR asked two experts for their opinions on the reasons behind the improvement.

Country risk: Southeast Asia braces itself for US Fed rate hike
July 2015

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China has seen slightly slower consumption and exports this year, but it is investment in manufacturing and real estate that are causing the most concern.

China stocks: turning a crisis into a catastrophe
July 2015
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The government has allowed what should have been a simple market correction to get the better of it.

Awards for Excellence 2015: Outstanding contribution to global financial services
July 2015
In 15 years, Jiang Jianqing has taken ICBC from technical bankruptcy to the world’s most profitable bank.

Don’t bet on Brazil’s equity markets waking soon
June 2015
Brazil’s economy must absorb a lot more pain before it starts to grow again. Until then, investors will stay away, and the deals won’t come.

Latin America: Mexico leads but Brazil stirs from ECM slumber
June 2015
Demand rising, busy second half expected; Par Corretora holds key to Brazil return.

China high yield: Whimper greets property developer Kaisa’s default
June 2015
Stark contrast with reaction to Sino-Forest default in 2011; case highlights key man and regulatory risks in China.

Chinese corporates question value of advice
June 2015
The culture among Chinese companies of preparing and executing their own acquisitions isn’t good news for investment banks keen to charge for services. Will it ever change?

Chinese buyers descend on Lisbon
June 2015
It may be a battered economy on the edge of Europe, but Portugal is rapidly becoming the hotspot for Chinese corporate ownership in Europe, particularly in the financial sector. Whether they like it or not, governments and regulators in Lisbon, Brussels and elsewhere will welcome them with open arms.

Latin America banking: Risk pendulum swings back to locals
May 2015
"I think we will see the Spanish banks remain a strong foothold in the countries that they are already present and also see other foreign banks keeping strong footprints in markets like Mexico and Brazil."

Peru a safer prospect than Brazil, with Mexico and Colombia in its sights
May 2015
The Andean nation was riskier than Brazil not so long ago, but has risen through the LatAm rankings and might soon become the second-safest credit in the region behind Chile.

Brazil: Cielo and Petrobras give grounds for optimism
May 2015
'Deal surge’ predicted; Goldman Sachs urges caution.

Is Bradesco in the frame for HSBC Brazil?
May 2015
Global firms feel pinch; Chinese banks set to enter?


Emerging Europe: CIS counts the cost of Russia
May 2015
The rouble’s crash sent currencies tumbling across the Caucasus and Central Asia. Banks look relatively well placed to withstand an inevitable downturn. But with protracted stagnation looming, is it time for policymakers to build bridges further afield?

Raiffeisen: Sevelda's struggle
May 2015
In Russia, Raiffeisen is set to close operations in six far eastern regions and 15 smaller cities across the country, as well as pull back from the auto loan market. Sevelda says the bank will also take steps to improve the quality of its loan portfolio in Russia.

China banks face real-estate dangers
May 2015
The slowdown of the Chinese real-estate market is an increasing risk for the country’s banks, but government intervention might dampen the threat.

Dim sum bond issuance slumps as renminbi globalization struggles to gain traction
June 2015
Recent data suggest that the momentum of the renminbi is slowing, particularly outside Asia.

China: Muni sea-change excites overseas investors
May 2015
Beijing has ambitious plans for market; international funds will find it 'hard to ignore’.

Euromoney Country Risk Survey Q1 2015: Russia crisis, China fragility and EMs’ capital-flow shock
April 2015
Russia’s mounting problems caused by the sanctions and low oil prices undermining the rouble extended its trend decline into Q1 2015.

Spotting the bottom in the Brazilian real
April 2015
Falling real creates value; upturn predicted for 2016.  

Digital banking: Electronic shock for China's old guard
April 2015
Tencent and Alibaba are at the vanguard of setting up new online banks. It's a great way to shake up the old state players and, by mining their data, get credit ratings for China's underserved population. But do upstart tech companies really have the political and business resources to challenge the incumbents?

Stock Connect: China shorting plan 'needs more lenders'
April 2015
The pool of approved stock lenders for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect short selling scheme must be widened for the initiative to succeed, according to market experts.

Debt restructuring with Chinese characteristics
April 2015
Critics may cry foul at the moral hazard but Beijing has bought itself time with its debt swap for local governments.

Latin America: The great rotation in M&A
March 2015
"If we are in Brazil, it’s for the long run. We decided a long time ago that Brazil is not an easy country, but it’s a growing country. […] You have to look beyond the circumstances that you see now."

Brazil's education still smart despite regulatory blow
March 2015
Tarpon takes control of Abril for R$1.3 billion; new regulation might limit numbers of higher students.

Brazil: Petrobras will be shut out of bond markets until 2016
March 2015
Needs credibility before returning; wants to avoid punitive pricing.

Brazil's local capital markets: Blame it on Brasilia
March 2015
Brazil has all the ingredients for successful local markets, but it keeps failing to deliver.

LatAm bond markets: Brazil’s local markets brace to take the strain
March 2015
The troubles at Petrobras have hurt all of Brazil’s borrowers but bankers in the country think the worst is now over and that the bad news has been priced in. The proof will come when issuers return to the markets, but who wants to go first – and can the local markets produce the goods?  

Emerging Europe: Belarus embarks on a charm offensive
March 2015
Belarus’s leaders are promising a dramatic package of reforms that could overhaul the country’s sclerotic command economy and reduce its dependence on Russia. The only trouble is, no one believes them. Mixed messages to the bond markets haven’t helped.

Indian ECM volumes set to rise, while fees stay low
March 2015
A number of eye-catching deals in the Indian market in 2015 are creating excitement for bankers about the potential pipeline of deals this year.

Asia: Patience pays off as Citic/CLSA makes its mark
March 2015
Few thought that the marriage of a Chinese securities firm with an Asian brokerage which had a unique, and at times disruptive, culture could work. But two years on, Citic and CLSA have proved they can be at least the sum of their parts. Can the combination now become a true regional powerhouse as its leaders hope?

Private banking in Latin America: Brazil reverts to type
February 2015
The private banking industry in Latin America had a difficult 12 months as wealth creation slowed throughout the region. The picture for the year ahead looks brighter for some countries, but Brazil remains the dominant market and its prospects are still murky.

DCM: Mexico fills Brazil void in international markets
February 2015
Sovereign reopens market; Petrobras saga stymies Brazil.

Heron serves up irresistible dish to Bradesco
February 2015
Brazilian bank Bradesco opens its London office on February 9.

Russia: Buyers shun deeply discounted rouble
February 2015
Russia has been caught in the eye of a perfect storm. Battered by falling oil prices, US and EU sanctions and a dramatic market correction as the rouble was allowed to float, the currency has been in free-fall and liquidity has largely evaporated, with many brokers ceasing rouble trading altogether.

Asia: Anti-graft drive puts Macau in the shade
February 2015
Gaming capital stocks fall 41%; gambling revenues down 30%.

Chinese brokers hungry for assets outside Asia
February 2015
Haitong adds to trend with BESI deal; further opportunistic moves on way.

Online banking comes to China
February 2015
Pioneering WeBank launches; China set to lead industry.

Trade finance: RMB expansion catches up with China GDP
February 2015
Capital controls have constrained the use of the renminbi in global trade, while China’s real economy has surged ahead. Despite the strict rules around its use, market players are punting on strong RMB growth in 2015, Euromoney’s Trade Finance survey reveals.

The year of energy-induced recession in Brazil?
January 2015
Rationing increasingly possible; Stagnant economy slowed consumption.

Petrobras shuts Brazil out of international markets
January 2015
Corruption scandal stymies bond issues; lack of supply might set stage for others.

2014: a year in data – Brics
January 2015
Brics hit the economic wall.  

Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2014: Negative oil shock creates new threats
January 2015
Negative oil shock compounds Russia crisis.

Russia risks derailing banks’ regional plans
January 2015
As Europe has stagnated since the financial crisis, Russia proved an invaluable source of returns for a handful of lucky western banking groups. But with Putin on the offensive, the rouble on the slide and recession on the horizon, its days as an engine of regional growth look to be over.

Russia: The mother of all macro risks
January 2015
The growing likelihood of an economic crisis in Russia will have a major impact on global markets in 2015.

2014: a year in data – Russia
January 2015
Rouble brews trouble for Russia

Brazil’s reality check for reviving the economy
December 2014
Brazil has a long and painful struggle ahead to revive its economy. Denial and complacency will not help that process.

Brazil: Bankers rueful over Rousseff
December 2014
Brazil’s banking industry exclaimed loudly that another four years of Dilma Rousseff would be a disaster for the country. Now that she has been re-elected, have the bankers changed their minds?

Brazil’s banks immune to struggling economy
December 2014
Strong results across the sector; banking system 'a source of strength’.

LatAm: Rising rates will limit IPO activity
December 2014
Rising rates deter equity investors; Brazil no longer driving volumes.

Euromoney’s risk survey pinpoints mispriced oil-exporter credits
December 2014
Russia’s and Venezuela’s plight was predicted by Euromoney’s country risk survey well before the market priced in their deteriorating creditworthiness. Other, similarly ranked oil-producing sovereigns could endure a similar fate.

Moscow Exchange: All revved up with no place to go
December 2014
Moscow’s revamped stock exchange has everything it takes to be a global player, with the exception of supply and demand. Has Russia’s isolation put a dampener on its ambitious domestic capital markets development programme?

China sprouts green shoots in securitization
December 2014
A flurry of new deals points to an exciting new business possibility for Apac banks in 2015.

Russian bank risks jump as Europe's halves
November 2014
The latest results of a systemic risk index reveal elevated risks in Russia, Portugal and France but a generally marked improvement across the rest of Europe.

Russia’s risk score plummets to its lowest since 1998 default
November 2014
As sanctions and falling oil prices force the rouble’s slide, country risk experts are questioning the ability of privately owned and/or state-backed banks and corporates to obtain credit and repay their debts amid capital flight and an economy in decline.

Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect enables CNH funding arbitrage
December 2014
The Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect, which was launched amid much fanfare on November 17, has triggered a jump in CNH-funded arbitrage opportunities. However, rising Stock Connect volumes and easing by the People’s Bank of China – triggering a convergence between onshore and offshore rates – will remove current funding advantages.

China: Stock Connect through train steams ahead
November 2014
The eagerly awaited Stock Connect system connecting Hong Kong to the mainland is up and running to relief all round. While traditional long-only funds and southbound flows have lagged, market players foresee a new dawn in Chinese equity trading.

The new normal for EMs
November 2014
China, the dollar and oil. All three are moving in novel directions.

ECR: Which way next for Brazil?
November 2014
Experts taking part in Euromoney’s country-risk survey have cast doubt on Brazil as an investment destination in recent years.

Russia central bank attempts rouble crisis circuit-breaker
November 2014
Analysts support the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) response to the collapse of the rouble – abandoning the dollar band and providing new channels to funnel liquidity to the market – arguing it will shift market expectations and could stabilize the currency in the medium-term. In an interview with Euromoney before the move, a CBR official discusses the opportunities and challenges in the regime shift.

Dark clouds still loom over India IPOs
November 2014
The feelgood factor from the election of Narendra Modi as prime minister does not seem to be translating into better fees for IPO bankers – yet.

Brazilian real troubles far from over
October 2014
The decline of the Brazilian real to a nine-year low this week seemed to mark a nadir for a currency buffeted by economic and political concerns. Analysts say, though, that things could get worse before they get better.

Brazil and Mexico follow divergent long-term risk trends
October 2014
Investors should take note: LatAm’s big two have been offering contrasting portfolio options for some time. This year is no exception.

Brazil faces tough future, say economists
October 2014
Vital reforms unlikely; next president will inherit inflation headache.

Russia borrowers strike bullish note over sanctions
October 2014
While sanctions are hitting the Russian markets and pushing up interest rates, senior executives at Sberbank and potash producer Uralkali tell Euromoney the country’s banks and corporates are looking internally and to the east for new sources of financing. But with Russia sliding towards recession, liquidity is vanishing.

Abigail with attitude: Blackstone’s disengagement from Russia
October 2014
I was intrigued to see that Blackstone, the leading private equity firm, is disengaging from Russia.

Russia: Banks will shrug off sanctions
October 2014
Sector profitability holding up; central bank adds dollars to liquidity provision.

The real emerging Europe
October 2014
CEE enthusiasts should not despair just yet. A number of the clouds handing over the region might turn out, on closer inspection, to have a silver lining.

Rajan’s surgical strikes
October 2014
Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan is battling inflation and crony capitalists to open a new chapter in the Asian superpower’s growth story. Rajan – Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year 2014 – reveals his blueprint for reforms and issues a stark warning about the cracks in the global economy.

Central bank governor of the year 2014: Rajan emerges unscathed from Indian baptism of fire
October 2014
Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan’s tough monetary medicine combatted the storm ravaging the deficit-ridden economy in the recent emerging market crisis. Now, he is battling vested interests to arouse a sleepy financial system for over one billion people.

RBI’s Rajan sounds alarm over breakdown in global coordination
October 2014
A lack of international monetary policy coordination and efforts to beef up the IMF to reflect the newfound clout of emerging markets (EMs) raises the risks of trade protectionism and market volatility, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan tells Euromoney.

Looming China crisis adds to eurozone and emerging-market threats - ECR Q3
October 2014
The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.

China trade finance: What lies beneath
October 2014
The surge in China-related trade financing might not be as encouraging as the pure numbers indicate.

South Korea battling for RMB spoils
October 2014
Backed by its robust trading relationship with China, the east Asian nation is the latest fledgling offshore renminbi hub. Market participants shed light on South Korea’s renminbi bid as internationalization of the Chinese currency gathers pace.

Asian bankers bathe in Alibaba afterglow
October 2014
Alibaba lists on NYSE; deal might free up pipeline.

Brazil elections: Don’t bank on Marina
September 2014
Brazil’s business community wants 'anyone but Dilma’ as its next president. But Marina Silva will not be able to deliver everything that business, or the country, needs.  

Modi makeover ignites India’s banking leaders
September 2014
In exclusive interviews, leaders of Indian finance reveal how banks, nursing wounds from the recent credit boom, should be set free from the shackles of state control, as reformists raise hopes of a new dawn for Indian capitalism. A jolt, not a tweak, to the financial system is desperately needed.

India: Waiting game continues for foreign investment banks
September 2014
Even in a bullish scenario where a Rajan-Modi dream team unleashes reforms – from PSL to the bond market – in an economic super-cycle that sees public lenders recapitalized, foreign investment banks could still be chasing rainbows in India. It is an over-banked market, with dozens of fee-hungry institutions jockeying for business.

Unchain Indian finance
September 2014
India needs a litany of reforms to unshackle its stalled capitalist project. Modi’s government should take inspiration from the paradox of Singapore’s activist state and strong private sector.

Brics bank: requiem for a dream 
September 2014
Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.

Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s problems prompt safety-first approach  
September 2014
Private banking clients in Brazil face challenging times, bankers concede. The economy is under pressure and the country could yet suffer stagflation. Furthermore, an unpredictable presidential race leaves markets in limbo. However, bankers are confident their well-educated client base will not over-react, and instead maintain their long-term strategies.

Brazilian public banks: Short-term gain, long-term pain?  
September 2014
Dilma Rousseff has told Brazil’s public banks to boost the country’s flagging consumption until the elections with double-digit loan growth. Weakening credit quality and capital ratios are worrying analysts.

Ferraz defends BNDES role
September 2014
It has become normal in Brazil for private-sector banks to express frustration with the scale and cost of BNDES’ presence in financing corporate Brazil. However, given the power of the bank to engage with private-sector financial institutions (either through granting debt lines that are passed through the private banks, or from holding equity stakes in companies that the banks see as clients or potential clients), these criticisms are made off-the-record.

Economic growth: Two-speed Latin America
September 2014
Mexico’s energy reforms should kick-start growth in its lacklustre economy while Brazil appears to have no strategic planning in place.

Brazil: Energy options running dry
September 2014
Election campaign delays rationing; 'pray for rain’ say analysts.

Brazil: Private banks predict end to short-term, tax-free investing
September 2014
Asset allocation hangs on election result; closing the instrument is good news for private banks.

Markets pine for Brazil election game-changer
September 2014
The Brazilian real has been rising in recent weeks on hopes opposition candidate Marina Silva will beat president Dilma Rousseff in a run-off election in October. With the Brazilian economy faltering and the election outcome still on a knife edge, the real’s outlook – and the country’s macro framework, more generally – remains unclear.

Sanctions propel Russia towards Asia
September 2014
Sanctions overs the conflict in Ukraine have closed off western capital markets to some Russian companies, giving Asia an opportunity to take a greater role. But an easy ride in the east is not guaranteed.

Roman Avdeev: Moscow’s most unlikely billionaire
September 2014
Philosopher, philanthropist and father of 23 – Roman Avdeev is a far cry from the stereotype of Russian oligarch. Yet his ownership of Credit Bank of Moscow, one of the country’s fastest-growing lenders, along with canny deal-making in sectors from retail to pharmaceuticals, is fast propelling him up the rich list. And his status as one of Russia’s most independent billionaires gives him a unique insight into the country’s current pariah status.

Russian finance: Moscow’s cash cows
September 2014
Russia’s consumer lenders are the modern face of Russian finance, and could prove resilient to the current crisis.

UAE/India debate: Trade and investment corridor booms

September 2014

The economic ties between the UAE and India have gone from strength to strength in recent years and are set to deepen further. The UAE not only offers India the promise of investment in its creaking infrastructure, but a compelling investment environment for Indian companies and a staging post for expansion. Conversely, Asia’s third largest economy offers Arab companies growth opportunities.

Risk experts remain cautiously optimistic about India’s prospects
September 2014
The sovereign’s fortunes are still improving since the sell-off last year sent the rupee spiralling downwards. With India now back on investors’ radar, Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey contributors offer their thoughts on what lies ahead.