The country is defying global uncertainty and market turmoil in the lead-up to elections in 2019, with the country in a stronger position now to withstand the prospect of BJP falling.

Latin American risk has fallen to its lowest in three years, according to Euromoney’s quarterly survey of economists and other experts, but individual countries are affected by local politics, protectionism and tightening global financial conditions to varying degrees.

The sovereign borrower’s risk profile is more appealing with political uncertainty resolved and macro-fiscal indicators repairing.

The African sovereign is one of the more impressive movers in Euromoney’s country risk survey this year, extending a longer-term upward trend that could see its credit rating upgraded – if it avoids political instability.

Global risk subsided in the first half of the year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, with confidence in Europe maintained and commodity producers benefiting from better terms of trade. Yet with US interest rates rising, and Brexit, Russia and protectionism risks prevailing, investor prospects have more recently become uncertain for the remainder of 2018.

The new government has inherited a mess, with Euromoney’s survey signalling a further rise in risk in Q2 2018, but ECR experts believe proactive leadership can suitably address the issues.

Risk experts are taking a dim view of Turkey’s prospects with the lira nosediving.

When the World Cup fanfare is over, investors must gauge whether the country represents a better bet than other emerging markets – and there are still some nagging doubts.

Ukraine’s consistent, gradual improvement could be a gamble worth taking, especially with attention focused on trade wars, the eurozone and North Korea.

The crisis in Italy has rocked European assets, but Portugal’s longer-term prospects are bright.

Political uncertainty and over-reliance on external borrowing make the country more vulnerable than lower-rated sovereigns.

The new government is imminent and is expected to announce policies that will cause financial markets to turn their attentions from the recovering economy to unorthodox populism.

The new president has made the start required to ensure investors take notice, with higher oil prices increasing liquidity, corruption addressed and business regulation improving.

Both countries are facing elections, but the Asian borrower has more convincing risk metrics.

The country will need to provide a more convincing structural reform plan to correct the fiscal deficit and put the debt on a sustainable path.

The risk picture has improved, but geopolitical tensions over North Korea, Russia and Syria, the prospect of global trade wars and other concerns including monetary tightening remain key threats, warn analysts.

Although the borrower is evidently making progress, investors must be prepared for setbacks given the enormous economic and political challenges still to overcome.

The authorities will staunchly defend the exchange rate, but will be powerless to act if a global trade war intensifies.