Euromoney asked its panellists to rescore Lebanon’s risks in the aftermath of the port tragedy on August 4, with investors left pondering what’s next for a country now desperately in need of aid and finance for reconstruction.
Analysts can see through the economic and fiscal shock to observe a country with its underlying strengths intact.
The country is showing one of the more concerning trends among Asia’s emerging markets as politics and economics combine to increase investor risks.
Analysts weighing up the fallout from Covid-19 have once again downgraded key economic risk factors concerning growth and employment, but the crisis is also having an impact on political factors, especially in those countries facing elections.
Euromoney’s survey shows the pandemic crisis is having both predictable and unexpected effects on economic, political and structural indicators as the world faces the biggest investor shock in living memory.
Global risk subsided in the final months of 2019, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, as signs of a breakthrough emerged to end the deadlock over the China-US trade dispute, inflation eased, elections delivered more certain outcomes, and policymakers turned to stimulus measures to support economic growth.
Analysts have downgraded countries in the direct fire of trade frictions, along with key emerging markets, such as South Africa and Turkey, with unresolved debt and domestic policymaking problems.
