Global risk subsided in the final months of 2019, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, as signs of a breakthrough emerged to end the deadlock over the China-US trade dispute, inflation eased, elections delivered more certain outcomes, and policymakers turned to stimulus measures to support economic growth.
With the same old problems beguiling single currency members, there is no reason for investors to anticipate rapid improvement in the new year.
The two countries have been continually improving in Euromoney’s crowd-sourcing country risk survey. One of the survey contributors explains why.
Analysts have downgraded countries in the direct fire of trade frictions, along with key emerging markets, such as South Africa and Turkey, with unresolved debt and domestic policymaking problems.
Global investor safety stabilized in Q2, but the failure to improve after Q1 gains highlights the negatives of global protectionism, warn risk analysts.
Protectionism is undermining an otherwise moderate global outlook as growth continues, labour markets tighten and geopolitical crises calm.
With strong GDP continuing, global investor risk moderated in 2018, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey – but analysts are poised for a bumpy ride in 2019.
