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September 2002

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • In a region where private-equity flows are rapidly drying up, many investors regard Korea as a relatively lucrative safe haven. But even in Korea it’s an arduous task putting deals together and successful exits have been few and far between.
  • For over a decade the triumph of the Anglo-American model of capitalism seemed assured: but no longer. So what happened to the Washington Consensus, and what new ideology might replace it?
  • Kazakhstan has had more success than most former Soviet states in reforming its power sector. Electricity suppliers hope prices can be pushed higher but the abundance of oil and gas will limit rises.
  • IMF/World Bank meeting
  • When investment bankers decide it is time to leave their industry, many take extended leave or choose to retire altogether. Milen Veltchev went straight to being Bulgaria’s finance minister.
  • Forget proper arguments, who's got the best celebs on their side? This is what the euro vote is coming to in the UK as the two camps draw up their campaigns.
  • Kazakhstan led the world growth table in 2001 and credit rating agencies see it as a sound candidate for borrowing. Export credit agencies are not so confident, pointing in their ratings to paltry political reform and a nepotistic ruling elite.
  • European integration
  • Credit markets have contracted dramatically in recent months and all but the safest borrowers, which have benefited from a flight to quality, have had to pay a high price for funds. On the buy side investors want assurances that they will be protected from risk. The banks that have performed best in this year’s capital-raising poll are therefore those that have come furthest in developing complex products that can save money for borrowers and enable lenders to hedge effectively.
  • In my view the bear market in equities will resume beyond the so-called summer rally. Crucially, the huge fall in household wealth will dampen consumer demand and rising risk aversion will delay a revival of global investment. There will also be much weaker corporate earnings growth, making equities overvalued; a weaker dollar spreading deflation into emerging economies; and poor leadership from the US administration on global economic policy and geopolitics.
  • To talk, as many people do, of common technological standards in the drive towards straight-through processing is hypothetical. In the purest sense, there is no such thing. The same can also be said of straight-through processing itself.
  • A couple of years ago, wearing a suit and tie marked you as a stick-in-the-mud. It might mean you were caught in the past and didn't get the new economy.
  • China is a massive liberalizing market. Does this mean big opportunities for foreigners to make money? Up to a point perhaps – size of this order is difficult for outsiders to get a grip of and domestic institutions will in any case want the biggest share.
  • With asset prices beaten down, private-equity firms see big opportunities to buy now. But are they calling the bottom of the market too soon?
  • The IMF has disbursed $13 billion to Tukey this year and claims to see widespread support for economic reform in the country. But the summer’s political crisis has raised the prospect of electoral success for the Islamists.
  • The Korean government’s sale of Seoul Bank to another domestic player has upset foreign bidders . But the sale is likely to prompt further consolidation.
  • A minority of a minority – five holders of part of the 15% active capital of Icelandic mutual savings bank Spron – are crucial to the takeover bid being made by commercial bank Búnadarbanki.
  • Despite robust GDP growth in 2001 in most Arab countries, their banks suffered falling earnings because of more domestic competition, weakness in global investment markets, tighter margins, and higher loan-loss provisions.
  • Debt markets
  • Is the three-year equity bear market nearing its end? Or is it just the beginning of a financial and economic collapse that could shake the very core of the free-market capitalist system?
  • Global bond strategist, Pimco
  • Russia is facing its first real economic test since the fall of the Soviet Union. The strong growth of the past two years is slowing down as the last of devaluation’s beneficial effects wear off.
  • MarketAxess has risen to the top of online credit trading through a mix of luck and skill. Now TradeWeb has launched corporate bond trading too. The downturn has helped position them as the two biggest platforms. But they’re competing for a tiny share of overall corporate bond business.
  • Brazilian banks continue to dominate indigenous banking in Latin America and continue to grow despite the economy’s woes.
  • Visitors to Washington for the IMF/World Bank meetings might be perplexed by the recurrent mention by their hosts of one Anthony Williams. Williams is DC's mayor but perhaps not for much longer.
  • Latin America
  • Equity exchanges
  • You will find them in the leafier, tonier suburbs of London, Frankfurt, New York, San Francisco, Chicago. Well-groomed, satisfied-looking men and women sipping cappuccinos, enjoying the afternoon sun on a working day. The new investment banking unemployed are rediscovering the pleasures of family life and ample leisure.
  • Latin America faces what one analyst calls the worst period in its economic history since the middle of the 19th century. The decade of reform appears to be ending with little having been achieved. Political crises abound. Much needed foreign capital is drying up. And those looking to the IMF for salvation are likely to be disappointed.
  • US business leaders fear a heavy-handed legal and regulatory response to accounting scandals. The same fear was widespread in the 1930s. But the much hated laws and regulations laid down then set the foundations for a vibrant financial sector.