Who says economists are dull? Three of Wall Street's finest, and most bearish, took part in an early-morning debate about the impact of the Iraq war on the US economy at the Council for Foreign Relations in New York last month. At times it was like stand-up comedy, with Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach as the main act.

Source: www.breakingviews.com is Europe's leading financial commentary service.

Head of EMEA debt capital markets, Banc of America Securities

Now that the military battle in Iraq is over, my sense is that equity markets want to go up. But I don't believe that this is the start of a new bull market. It is just the eye of the storm of the secular bear market. The bounce will eventually die down and the bear market will reassert itself. We have not seen the lows yet.

Source: www.breakingviews.com is Europe's leading financial commentary service.

A restructuring of Iraq's financial obligations is arguably the most important initiative that must be undertaken in that country next to providing humanitarian assistance.

Last month HS Securities of Japan secured the 100% purchase of Agricultural Bank of Mongolia when its head, Hideo Sawada, delivered $6.85 million to Ulaanbaatar.

The term "black box" investing has often been applied to quantitative fund management, though it is seen by its practitioners as a somewhat pejorative description. Whatever black boxes they have at BGI, they certainly seem to work.

When e-enthusiasm cooled, swap trading platforms hadn't got far. Now, though, old ideas are being revived and new ones mooted. ? Tom Marshall reports

Investors are still piling into US corporate bonds but there’s little sign of improved credit quality to justify this desperate enthusiasm. What’s more, interest rates must rise sooner or later. • Kathryn Tully reports

In the past year, fees on emerging-market bonds have plunged from 50 basis points or more to below 10bp. The fee war is taking its toll on emerging-market teams, but is it temporary or permanent? • Julian Evans reports

Investor demand for US

The history of legislation on banking foundations in Italy is not a happy one. Successive governments have tried to stamp their mark, with the aim of eroding the foundations' power. This government is no different. Finance minister Giulio Tremonti has tried to wrest a bit more influence from them and next month, or perhaps the one after, could be the moment of truth. That's when the constitutional court will present its decision on whether the foundations must sell the shares they hold in banks. It isn't difficult to see why what these bodies do interests the government. Between them, the 89 foundations hold almost e40 billion in assets, including big stakes in Italy's banks. This ownership dates back to 1990, when the government decided to split savings banks into two in recognition of their different and sometimes conflicting functions. One body - the bank - became a joint-stock company responsible for financial operations. The other - the banking foundation - retained charitable status and a social role, maintaining cultural attractions and historical monuments for example.

Long Yongtu, China's former vice-minister at the finance and economy ministry and the country's chief negotiator for its entry into the WTO, might want to forget his performance at Credit Suisse First Boston's recent investment conference in Hong Kong. It could haunt him for a long time to come.

The German banks' latest ploy for repairing balance sheets bloated with non-performing loans is laughable. Siphoning off the good loans and leaving behind the non-performing ones - those that the banks really should be doing something about - can only result in balance sheets in worse shape than before.

The Indian stock markets fundamentally reassessed Indian information technology stocks last month. Jolted by a sharp fall in profit margins and a profit warning for the next fiscal year from Infosys, the bellwether for Indian IT companies, the stock sank. The market capitalization of Indian IT stocks has shrunk by over a third this year to Rs662.8 billion ($14 billion) on April 24, tipping the 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex to a six-month low. That is likely to lead to the postponement of an initial public offering by Tata Consultancy Services, the biggest exporter of Indian software services, which has been trying to list for over a year now.

For two months Hong Kong's 6.8 million residents have been at the centre of the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak, better known across the border in mainland China as "strictly avoiding realistic statistics". But the crisis now seems driven more by fear and hysteria than actual risk of infection.

After years of trying to make its mark on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank is finally taking up residence there. There's only one problem - the staff don't want to go.

Issuer: France Telecom Size: e16 billion Bookrunners: ABN Amro Rothschild, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas

In a period when panics have outweighed optimism among investors, the Sars epidemic is just the latest in a series of shocks that have cast doubt on Asian companies’ ADR prospects. • Chris Cockerill reports

One key clause in Uruguay's proposed collective action clauses closes a loophole that Mexico left open in its own bonds: the question of whether the issuer could use exit consents on the payment terms of bonds with CACs. Exit consents, even on non-payment terms of bonds, are generally considered coercive and rather bad manners, even if a necessary evil for countries seeking to restructure their bonds.

The aftermath of war in Iraq may delay a few project finance deals in the Middle East but the market is in good health. Development diversification will spur large projects. Sponsors, however, may have to accept more costly financing.

Never let it be said that communists are out of touch with market reality - North Korea, sensing an opportunity to finance itself is to issue its first bond. Ruling party daily Rodong Sinmun says the bond issue "is an important measure to raise funds" to "crush US imperialists", a pitch that is sure to play well with investors.

Retail investors dismayed by the dire performance of straight equity and bond funds look to be ideal customers for hedge fund products. Some national regulators have recognized this and liberalized marketing rules. But it’s not clear that the sector can sustain mass investment. • Julie Dalla-Costa reports

Source: www.breakingviews.com is Europe's leading financial commentary service.

Following last year's surprise jump up the rankings, UBS has now made it to the top of the market share table in Euromoney's annual forex poll. Katie Astbury reports; research by Andrew Newby, Paul Pedzinski and Dave Skallinder.

Issuer: France Telecom Size: e16 billion Bookrunners: ABN Amro Rothschild, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas

How do you entice a highly rated, well-respected and conservative issuer to use a product they've never used before? You offer them a whole new investor base willing to buy a security that bags the issuer savings of 40 basis points over Libor. That's what Wells Fargo managed last month when it issued its first convertible in at least 25 years.

Investment banks are eager to do debt deals involving derivatives with Italian local authorities. Such a high level of competition is good news for the borrowers but they are also facing closer regulation of their use of innovative structures. • Jennifer Morris reports

Source: www.breakingviews.com is Europe's leading financial commentary service.