Euromoney’s survey shows the pandemic crisis is having both predictable and unexpected effects on economic, political and structural indicators as the world faces the biggest investor shock in living memory.

Protectionism is undermining an otherwise moderate global outlook as growth continues, labour markets tighten and geopolitical crises calm.

Investor safety has come under close scrutiny since June, resulting in a small but discernible decline in the global average risk score, halting a four-quarter improving trend.

Global risk subsided in the first half of the year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, with confidence in Europe maintained and commodity producers benefiting from better terms of trade. Yet with US interest rates rising, and Brexit, Russia and protectionism risks prevailing, investor prospects have more recently become uncertain for the remainder of 2018.

The risks of investing in developed countries eased in Q3 2017 due to strong economic growth, according to economists and other experts. Several large emerging markets (EMs) also became safer as volatility eased worldwide.

Euromoney’s latest Country Risk Survey shows a gradual rebalancing of risk scores this year, as the aftershocks of the global banking and sovereign debt crises wear off, political risks tied to the European electoral cycle fade, and capital access improves for EMs.

The calming of the political shock of Brexit, with oil prices now receiving Opec support, is preventing global risks from worsening, yet with a referendum looming in Italy, elections in the US and Europe to come, not to mention frail banks and several countries mired in difficulties, it might be the calm before another global storm.

Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.

Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.

China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015. With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.

Emerging markets (EMs) with fiscal and external imbalances, vulnerable to capital outflows – including oil and other commodity producers struggling to balance their budgets – are among the 72 sovereigns downgraded since the end of 2014 by more than 440 economists and other country-risk experts.

The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.

The latest results from the ECR survey show emerging markets (EMs) becoming riskier during the first half of this year, in contrast to the increasing safety offered by developed countries across the G10 and an improving eurozone.

The rise in global risk witnessed in 2013 continued during the first quarter of this year as experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey reassessed the investment prospects of EMs versus their developed-country counterparts.

Global risk continued to rise in 2013, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. Gloomy analysts remain cautious on the eurozone and the potential impact of the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus on capital flows to emerging market economies.

More than five years on from the credit crunch that shook the world to its core, tail risks continue to undermine investor returns, according to the latest quarterly results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

More than 400 economists and other experts from a range of financial and other institutions take part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. They evaluate the risks faced by international investors in more than 180 markets, scoring countries across a range of political, economic and structural criteria. These are added to values for capital access, credit ratings and debt indicators, and aggregated each quarter to provide a total risk score.

A broad rebalancing of country risk perceptions has taken place this year, according to the June results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

The Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia and Poland are well-buttressed against contagion from the eurozone crisis, according to the latest quarterly update from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

With Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey showing improved assessments for much of the Americas and Japan during Q1 2013, it is tempting to believe that the increased global risks seen in recent years are finally abating.

All of the G10 countries, with the notable exception of Sweden, saw their risks rise in 2012, according to the latest results from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey – and not just because of the problems affecting the debt-ridden eurozone sovereigns.

The eurozone became even riskier in Q3 2012, according to the results of Euromoney’s Country Risk (ECR) survey. Spain, the world’s worst performer in the survey during that period, plummeted 14 places, while Italy and Slovenia registered increased risk too. Core economies Germany and France also got riskier in Q3, according to economists. However, there were signs that the worst might be over for the eurozone as a whole, with its average score deterioration slowing to 0.5 points on average in Q3, less than a third of the previous quarter’s fall.

The eurozone is leading most areas of the world in declining ECR scores, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey. The rise in risk is not as steep as in 2011, but it is a source of anxiety for ECR’s 400 experts.

Country risk analysts saw increased risk in all of the world’s main economic/geographical regions during the first six months of 2012, according to the Q2 2012 results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

The eurozone enjoys its strongest quarter since March 2010 in the latest results of Euromoney’s country risk survey, as European policymakers finally come to grips with the crisis. But lower scores for Greece and France suggest Europe is not out of the woods yet. Andrew Mortimer reports

Country risk scores deteriorate across the eurozone

The euro crisis has already resulted in the region’s country risk scores falling by a greater margin than the Asian economies in 1997. That’s before any of the countries involved has actually defaulted. Andrew Mortimer asks: how many years will Europe take to recover?

Country risk rankings are dropping sharply in the Eurozone periphery and across the entire Middle East, including Qatar which had been viewed as relatively immune to the fallout from the Arab Spring. Andrew Mortimer reports.

With special thanks to the World Bank, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch IBCA and the following economists/institutions for their contributions: Adam Antoniak, Bank BPH SA; Anjali Verma, MF Global Sify Securities I Pvt Ltd; Azusa Kato, BNP Paribas; Bernard Musyck, Frederick University; Camilo Perez, Banco de Bogota; Cheng Cheng-Mount, Citibank Taiwan; Colen Garrow, Brait SA Ltd; Dr Olga Mrinska, Institute of Local and Regional Initiatives; Eduard Hagara, ING Barings; Francesca Panelli, Aletti Gestielle SGR SPA; Hans Holzhacker, Nenci Francesca and Rozália Pál, UniCredit Group; Helena Horska, Raiffeisenbank; John R. Harris, Boston University; Julien Manceaux and Dmitry Polevoy, ING; Madan Sabnavis, Credit Analysis and Research Ltd; Maristella Ansanelli, Banco Fibra; Michael Kappeler, LGT Capital Management; Michael Loufir, National Bank of Greece; Nassib Ghobril, Byblos Bank; Nuchjarin Panarode, Capital Nomura Securities; Olena Bilan, Dragon-Capital; Oliver Kovacs, ICEG European Center; Panicos Demetriades, University of Leicester; Peter Meister, BHF Bank Aktien Gesellschaft; Philip Hanson, Chatham House; Plamen Plantev, ISIS; Pornthep Jubandhu, Siam Commercial Bank; Robin Clements, UBS; Shakill K. Hasssan, University of Cape Town, Tiina Helenius, Handelsbanken; Vicky Redwood, Capital Economics; Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, BG Capital; Henry Mo, Credit Suisse; Lana Soelistianingsih, PT Samuel Sekuritas; Michal Dybula, BNP Paribas; Georgy Y. Ganev, Centre for Liberal Strategies; Wei Li, Standard Chartered Bank China; Pragrom Pathomboorn, Siam Commercial Bank; Aysegul Aykol Kocabas; Tekstil Bankasi; Martin Pelucha, University of Economics in Prague ; Galina Borisova Hale, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Ilias Lekkos, Piraeus bank, Athens; Dalton Gardimam, Banco Bradesco; M. Nicolas J. Firzli, Canadian European Economic Council; Yasuo Yamamoto, Mizuho Research Institute

Euromoney’s latest country risk results reflect political turmoil in the Middle East and the continued uncertainty within the Eurozone. The global recovery is in serious danger of being undermined by a host of financial and political risks. Andrew Mortimer reports.

Methodology

Euromoney’s new-look country risk rankings reflect the seismic shifts that have taken place in international investment over the past three years. Markets that were once seen as growth opportunities are now becoming core investment propositions. Poorna Harjani reports.

After a year that turned out better than anyone could have expected, 2010 began with a new bout of nerves on financial markets.

With the international economy more volatile than ever, global investors are paying more attention to country risk analysis. Risk looms both where you most and least expect it. In Euromoney’s latest rankings, the US has fallen out of the top 10. Jacqueline Cutler reports.

The impact of the credit crunch spread across the world over the past 12 months. Eastern Europe was badly hit, and the Middle East and Asia could no longer claim to be immune.

It could be the perfect storm – financial, macroeconomic and geopolitical risk are all on the rise. Risk is both where you anticipate it, and where you least expect it.

The US is in danger of dropping out of the top 10 in our semi-annual country risk survey as fears of an economic downturn and an uncertain political future dent analysts’ confidence.

Despite the fallout from US sub-prime woes, analysts are optimistic about prospects for the global economy, as commodities remain strong. But the US drops out of the top five in Euromoney’s latest country risk rankings. Oliver Hexter reports.

Event risk remains the biggest threat to the world’s economic prospects. But globalization means that, although economic imbalances might persist, the likelihood of a major worldwide correction is low.

The latest country risk poll reflects a global economy in good health, despite a period of stock market volatility and the prospect of a slowdown. But the Middle East and the high price of oil could have far-reaching implications, writes Florian Neuhof. Research by Paul Pedzinski.

Oil producers strike it rich, but long-term issues remain

The high price of oil highlights the fact that many economies are too reliant on raw materials exports, with governments creating unfavourable conditions for foreign investment through neglect or for political reasons. Florian Neuhof looks at the main drivers behind Euromoney’s latest country risk poll.

Country risk index: Most countries have better access to capital than ever before and sovereign credit ratings have been on the rise for the past three years. But an increasingly tense geopolitical environment has led to marked decline in this year's country risk ratings. Research and analysis by Paul Pedzinski.

A reveiw of 13 years of country risk, region by region. Emerging markets are now established as part of the fabric of international investment. But don't be fooled into thinking that the increased flow of investment follows a decline in risk. Research and analysis by Chloe Hayward.

Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey reflects a slight downgrade in the assessment of overall risk levels despite sovereign upgrades from rating agencies.

Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey, which for the first time incorporates data on perceptions of corruption, reflects continuing upheaval in the Middle East and Africa that is only partly compensated for by a favourable global trade environment.

Country risk index: The strong currency is damaging economic performance in the eurozone. But the outlook for some emerging markets is brighter, thanks to rising commodity prices and improving prospects for Asia. Paul Pedzinski and Andrew Newby report.

Country risk index: East Asia continues to lead the growth pack, but offers significant risk; Turkey is - once again - at a turning point; and Africa continues to be unsettled, but with less risk of inter-country contagion.

Oil prices have helped cushion the effects of slack global growth for many energy exporters. Asian and European growth is accelerating but there are wide regional variations and the World Bank warns that the world economy may well slide into recession.

Euromoney’s analysts have taken a measured view of such hyperbole as the “axis of evil” and resisted over-reacting to the situation in such regional crisis points as southern Africa. Latin America’s troubled economies suffer the severest downgrades.

Six months ago rising oil prices, the bursting of the new economy bubble and weaker financial markets were increasing the dangers of a recession even before the blow of September 11. Although the direct effects of the attacks have been relatively small and sector-specific, the effect on business confidence is likely to be large in the short term. In our latest review of country prospects Euromoney's panel of experts has revised down average global projections for 2002-03 for 79 countries and has revised up 105. On balance, consensus growth forecasts indicate strong resurgence in 2003.

Amid mounting concerns about a global economic slowdown, it is still country-specific political and economic factors that are propelling nations up and down the country risk rankings. There have been marked drops for such countries as Argentina, Zimbabwe, and Indonesia but no sign of fears of contagion spreading to their neighbours.

In the past Euromoney’s country risk ratings have been reliable lead indicators of dips and surges in the world’s economic cycle. Six months ago the global economy looked in fine fettle, underpinned by favourable commodity prices and strong growth in developed countries. Financial markets are fearful this is about to change. Analysts’ forecasts for economic performance are noticeably lower than in September’s survey. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Research by Damon Ivanics and Andrew Newby

It has been a busy year for presidential and parliamentary elections - and coup attempts. Throw in worker unrest (Peru, Ecuador, Ghana), violent separatism in Indonesia and looming emerging market elections and it would be wise to expect big changes in Euromoney’s first Country Risk ranking in 2001. Keri Geiger reports

The last six months have seen a marked turnaround for the world economy. A year ago the larger emerging-market countries were falling in the rankings as investors lost confidence in Brazil, Russia and other crisis-ridden giants. This year favourable commodity prices, better risk management and buoyant developed country economies point to better times ahead. There are some big winners in the latest Euromoney country risk ranking. Research by Andrew Newby.

The emerging markets are bouncing back - at least some of them are. While they do, the market is holding its breath as crisis-hit countries implement fiscal and monetary reforms. And while economists believe growth rates will improve, they are also resigned to sovereign defaults on foreign debt. Commentary by Rebecca Cicolecchia, research by Alexa Marx.

For this, our 27th ranking of the world's countries by creditworthiness, we have altered the scoring slightly. We have included a measure of per capita income into the score given for economic performance. This has boosted the ranking of a number of countries - especially smaller ones -which were previously penalized because little data was available on their economic performance (see methodology).

It's a measure of the turmoil in world markets that not a single bank was at first prepared to supply the forfaiting rates used by Euromoney in its calculation of these country-risk rankings. So fast were things changing that even these usually stable indicators became too volatile. Banks supplied them on request on a day-by-day basis to clients an indication of how difficult trade finance, the lubricant of the real economy, was becoming.

After the emerging-markets crisis, which countries remain creditworthy?

Continental Europe makes way for Scandinavia and North America in Euromoney's biannual survey of country creditworthiness. Pressure to conform to Maastricht criteria on Emu has dampened growth, tightened budget deficits and weakened consumer demand. High unemployment and currency weaknesses have pushed countries such as Switzerland, France and Italy down the ranking. Rebecca Dobson reports.