Country risk March 2002: Economists predict a strong rebound but not until 2003
Six months ago rising oil prices, the bursting of the new economy bubble and weaker financial markets were increasing the dangers of a recession even before the blow of September 11. Although the direct effects of the attacks have been relatively small and sector-specific, the effect on business confidence is likely to be large in the short term. In our latest review of country prospects Euromoney's panel of experts has revised down average global projections for 2002-03 for 79 countries and has revised up 105. On balance, consensus growth forecasts indicate strong resurgence in 2003.
A cautiously optimistic outlook for European and US growth emerges from Euromoney's latest poll of economists. The imprecision of judgements on the strength of the US recovery over the next year as well as the resilience of the EU consumer in the face of a possible gradual rise in unemployment make these forecasts highly provisional.