FX: All eyes on effects of Fed, Japan policy on Asian currencies

Analysts are looking beyond China for clues as to where the main Asian currencies will go over the remainder of 2023 as they try to second-guess Japan’s monetary policy plans.

A recent upswing in emerging-market risk sentiment has benefited a number of Asian currencies. According to BNP Paribas’ early warning signals methodology, the Malaysian ringgit is now in the lowest risk category, while the Indonesian rupiah has also been upgraded.

Carry trades have been popular as volatility has subsided in recent months on a flurry of positive signals: hopes that the US Federal reserve is nearing the end of the tightening cycle; a resilient global economy; the lifting of the US debt ceiling; and easing stress in the banking and financial sector.

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