Donald Trump: special focus

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Donald Trump's election to the US presidency means that markets in 2017 will be anything but dull. His promises of big infrastructure spending and tax cuts have changed the outlook for interest rates, threatened to end a decades-long bull run in bonds, and have some speculating on significant deregulation of the banking sector. Below is a collection of our best features on what the new POTUS means for global banking and markets.

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Latest features, news and opinion

What’s behind Trump’s enthusiasm for GSE reform?
January 2017

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Reprivatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is high on the agenda of the new Trump administration – its close ties to the hedge funds that were hit by their conservatorship and subsequent cash sweep could explain why, and is just one example of the murky incentives that have followed Donald Trump into the White House.

Middle East: Iran’s banks struggle with expectations
January 2017

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Banks in Iran have made progress since the signing of the nuclear deal, yet many obstacles to doing business internationally remain; for every step forward, there seems to be one back.

Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2016: Italy, UK and US shocks underline the risks of populism, as oil exporters take a caning
January 2017
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Country risk scores continued to plunge in Q4 2016, prompted by uncertainty over Italy’s political and banking sector problems, and the outlook for global trade, with the rise of populism emanating from Brexit, Donald Trump’s election victory and prospective elections across Europe coming into view this year.

Departing CFTC chair warns against repeal of financial regulation
January 2017
As he steps down from the CFTC on inauguration day, Timothy Massad warns the new administration that wholesale repeal of post-crisis financial regulation would be a big mistake.

Trade Finance Survey 2017: Tough times in trade finance
January 2017

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Donald Trump’s election victory owed much to his promise to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans Pacific Partnership. 

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Goldman Sachs: Gary Cohn has left the building
January 2017
Gary Cohn, president and COO of Goldman Sachs, was poised to join president-elect Trump’s new administration at the end of last year, having been appointed director of the National Economic Council.

Bond markets: Two cheers for rising rates
December 2016

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Bond market losses that began in November with the sharp rise of inflation expectations for Donald Trump’s coming presidency continued towards the end of the year. 

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21st-century Keynesianism? Get real
December 2016
UK and US economic policy has changed tone since last year’s electoral rebellions. Markets should jump at the chance to buy into higher-yielding real assets, but politicians will struggle to make reality match their rhetoric on infrastructure investment.

Bond market shoots first, asks questions later
December 2016

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The election of Donald Trump prompted a vicious sell-off in global bonds. Investors face the new year with warnings over volatility and inflation ringing in their ears. Will it be as bad as they think?

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FX: Fed indicates steeper path for US rate rises in 2017
December 2016
The mood of uncertainty is likely to prevail until there is more clarity over US president-elect Donald Trump’s plans for fiscal policy. It is anyone’s guess whether that will be the case by the time of the FOMC’s March meeting.

Macaskill on markets: Making Markets Great Again in 2017

December 2016
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Jon 'Mystic Mac' Macaskill takes a look at the year ahead in banking and trading.

Iran: Nothing cements treaties like money
December 2016
Commerce could reverse Trump’s vow to dismantle the Iran nuclear deal.

Japan: The surprise US election winner
December 2016
Japanese bank stocks have shot up in the wake of the US election result. The reasons have to do with shifting sands in bank regulation.

Inside investment: Debt – status quo anti
December 2016
Being awake at 4am is not usual for me. But when the US networks declared the state of Pennsylvania for Donald J Trump, the call of bed was finally too strong. It was over.

Against the tide: Trumping globalization
December 2016

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The rise of populism in general, and Trumpism in particular, brings severe geopolitical and economic risks and could have a disastrous impact on growth and productivity.

Trump win upends bond market
December 2016
Global Aggregate index yield jumps by 25bp in 11 days; $8.2 billion leaves US bond funds in one week.

Iran’s bankers wait for Trump’s next move
December 2016

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Immediately after Donald Trump’s election victory, Euromoney visited Tehran to gauge the reaction of one group likely to be affected more than most – Iran’s banking community. Throughout his campaign Trump threatened to tear up the nuclear agreement that has allowed Iran to take its first tentative steps towards international rehabilitation. But bankers in Tehran are determined to hold on to their hard-won gains.

Macaskill on markets: Bank trading desks set to win bigly under Trump

November 2016
Bank stocks rallied after Trump’s victory in the US election on hopes that higher trading revenue will outweigh potential disruption to global trade. A second act for traders now beckons.

Sideways: Trump’s tangled ties to Wall Street

December 2016
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Donald Trump vilified Wall Street during his presidential campaign in stump speeches and an advert that featured an image of Goldman Sachs CEO and chairman Lloyd Blankfein as a symbol of the "corrupt machine" that needed to be overthrown.

Trump and Friends: The one with Ross as commerce secretary
November 2016
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Investor Wilbur Ross has always had an eye for a deal, but is he the right choice for an economy that is embracing new technology faster than any other?

Country risk expert insight: Uncertainty permeates views on Mexico after Trump victory

November 2016
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Mexico has climbed two positions in Euromoney’s latest quarter results, ranking 37th out of 186 monitored countries, but the new US presidency has analysts worried.

FX: China ponders implications for renminbi of Trump victory
November 2016
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The US president-elect has talked tough on China, but he could be good news for China’s economy and its currency.

Behavioural finance: You can’t model Trump
November 2016
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Much of what counts as the modern study of economics consists merely of advanced mathematical modelling of financial markets, and the election of Donald Trump now renders it mostly worthless.

Trump victory sends markets haywire, extending the rise in country risk

November 2016
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Investor risk has been rising this year with fears over Brexit, China, the oil price slump, eurozone debts and global conflict weighing heavily on portfolio decision-making. The shock impact of the Republican victory has made the picture even murkier and sent assets into a tailspin.

Trump good for US equities, bad for bonds
November 2016
Markets might have sold off on Trump’s win but this is far from anyone’s definition of panic. 

FX versus Trump: Too calm for comfort?

November 2016
Better hedging seems to have enabled the FX market to shrug off concerns over Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, with some strong moves in Asian trading giving way to more restraint when European markets opened.

Latin America: Mexico to bear the brunt of Trump
November 2016
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Regional FX volatility and capital outflows likely to hit LatAm; biggest risk comes from protectionism policies in the medium term.

Macaskill on markets: Trading a Trump upset
September 2016
Unlike the contrarian investors who would welcome some creative disruption to market certainties, most bankers seem to fear the turmoil that could well follow an election victory for Donald Trump.

Mexico’s investor risk spikes as the US elections approach

August 2016
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Uncertainty is increasing for peso assets as the fight for the White House heats up. Even a victory for Hillary Clinton comes with reservations attached, demonstrating how it is not just the possibility of Donald Trump winning that is ringing alarm bells.