The last instalment of our results analysis looks at banks’ markets businesses
[Part 1 of our analysis dealt with group and CIB results; part 2 was about DCM, ECM and advisory]
FICC
2Q18: UP 1% Biggest rise: Goldman Sachs (45%)
Biggest fall: BNP Paribas (-17%)
TTM: DOWN 11% Smallest fall: Credit Suisse (-2%)
Biggest fall: BNP Paribas (-26%)
What an odd quarter for fixed income businesses. It was one where the divergence in US and European conditions came to the fore, with the ability to make money in parts of European FICC severely constrained by continued quantitative easing. Commodities businesses generally rose but some firms have exited the business after past problems. Credit was often weak.
It was also a quarter where the aggregate result completely failed to reflect the industry. Revenues rose 1% to $18.7 billion at the 12 banks, but that apparent flatness concealed double-digit gains at three firms and double-digit falls at three others! Aggregate TTM is just below FY17 at the moment – and well down from FY16. But the first half of 2018 has matched the same period last year, so a better full year is certainly possible.
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Mark Baker is Deputy Editor. Prior to joining Euromoney magazine he was based in Hong Kong as managing editor, Asia, for the Capital Markets Group. He previously edited EuroWeek magazine and was also deputy editor at International Financing Review.
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