ICBC Standard Bank is an interesting institution. It is a legacy of ICBC’s landmark acquisition of a 20% stake in South Africa’s Standard Bank 10 years ago. In 2015, ICBC acquired a controlling stake in Standard Bank’s London-based global markets business. Today it stands as a financial markets and commodities bank serving ICBC clients’ global markets needs, with a separate business in the distribution of African risk. Still London-based, it focuses on global commodities, fixed income, currencies and equities.
So what does Belt and Road mean for an institution like this, China-owned but global?
has the most widespread network in the Belt and Road countries,” says
Wenbin Wang, chairman of ICBC Standard Bank, in an interview at the
bank’s London headquarters. “It is deeply involved in the projects,
infrastructure, manufacturing and financing in those counties.
the assets and currencies there lack liquidity, can fluctuate and
sometimes come with unique risk,” he says. “Sitting here at the west end
of the Belt and Road, we have a unique advantage to help our clients
understand the risks and opportunities, and to provide risk solutions.”
example would be ICBC being involved in a large power project in a
country, with long-term dollar-denominated lending but a cashflow in
local currency. ICBC Standard would come in to provide structured
solutions to swap interest and forex risk. Movements in commodity prices
around Belt and Road projects and the internationalization of the
renminbi create opportunities for the venture.
ICBC Standard has faced the same challenges in quantifying and
explaining Belt and Road as everyone else has, so in July it launched
two new indices in partnership with Oxford Economics. The ICBCS Belt and
Road Economic Health Index is a macro index designed to show the
relative attraction of Belt and Road economies based on 45 country
indicators and the ICBCS Belt and Road China Connectivity Index is
designed to illustrate economic connectivity between China and
individual Belt and Road economies.
“We probably have a similar
aim to you: demystifying a large, ambitious, sprawling project,” says
Gary Licht, director of trading at ICBC Standard. “How do we make it
“Most obviously, Belt and Road is an investment
plan – a large, ambitious investment plan. And to take part in any
investment plan, you need data in order to make decisions.”
indices are designed to use available data to create a framework for
investors to assess the opportunities coming out of BRI. “You can use it
as a toolkit to break down the various components that will affect your
asset,” says Licht.
A look at the indices shows some
interesting, and not at all obvious, conclusions. In the economic health
index, which splits into a macroeconomic performance score and a risk
outlook score, Turkmenistan ranks above Singapore and Estonia beats them
both. On the China Connectivity Index, the Maldives and Oman rank above
the Philippines today, and the top 10 risers from 2011 to 2015 include
Armenia, Montenegro and Serbia.
Licht, who can cite underlying
numbers behind these rankings verbatim, has an explanation for each.
Turkmenistan has huge gas resources and pretty much no risk of a change
in government; it has a small and wealthy population with strong social
cohesion. Estonia, although small, distinguishes itself for its
investment climate. “Each has identifiable drivers,” Licht says. “You as
an investor decide if those drivers are important to you.”
Wenbin Wang, ICBC Standard Bank
connectivity index is made of three key components: trade, capital and
people, each of which are broken down into a number of underlying
categories. By back-testing, the index shows that the overall
connectivity score for Belt and Road countries is up 60% since 2005 and
that proximity to China has become progressively less important over
time (although neighbouring Mongolia does still lead the ranking). “For
me, the really interesting stuff is in looking at the evolution of the
details,” Licht says.
“We see that China is no longer the
workshop, but increasingly the supplier. And we see that as China has
sought to rebalance its economy, there has been a rise in clients
further to the west.”
The bank’s pitch is that information is not just power but efficiency and, therefore, reduced cost.
way I see it,” says Licht, “cost is a barrier for people wanting to
invest in a lot of these countries, and that is because the research
process is so difficult. You have to find the data, arrange it in such a
way where you can do meaningful analysis and justify it to a board.
the function we hope to serve is to reduce that initial cost barrier to
understanding and interpreting the underlying data.”