2014: a year in data – Russia
Rouble brews trouble for Russia
The plunge of the rouble has closely tracked Russia’s Euromoney Country Risk score. Not since the 1998 default have global economists been so bearish about Russia’s economy.The military conflict in Ukraine proved to be an inflection point for Russian assets and the currency, but analysts were wary of political developments well before Russian tanks rolled across the frontier. Expect further devaluations and depressed asset prices in 2015.
As sanctions and falling oil prices force the rouble’s slide, country risk experts are questioning the ability of privately owned and/or state-backed banks and corporates to obtain credit and repay their debts amid capital flight and an economy in decline.
The latest results of a systemic risk index reveal elevated risks in Russia, Portugal and France but a generally marked improvement across the rest of Europe.
It finally happened. After lurching from crisis to crisis - muddling through with partial reforms and quick fixes - Russia has finally crashed out of orbit. So who is to blame? Ronan Lyons looks at the key actors in the drama. Who are the seven oligarchs and were they behind the decision to devalue? What was really happening in the governments of Chernomyrdin and Kiriyenko? And what was the role of the IMF and western investors?
The battle between the west and Russia over Ukraine is intensifying amid a full-on financial war. Read our recent coverage of macroeconomic, FX, fixed income and equity market trends in the oil-producing economy.