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Argentina: Will Alberto Fernández succeed where Macri failed?

Road testing the likely economic and financial policies come the October general election.


There seems little certainty about Argentina upon which to build a monthly column, but I am prepared to stick my neck out and say the next president of the country is going to be Alberto Fernández.

It also looks likely that the finance minister will be Guillermo Nielsen.

Nielsen declined an interview with Euromoney, but, to be honest, he has said plenty – either directly or in selective retweets (even if they are not technically endorsement, as the phrase goes, here they do seem to illustrate a level of agreement).

So I decided to road test likely economic and financial policy under the coming administration with a range of economists, bankers and analysts.

Nielsen has outlined a 12-point plan for the economy, but in his multiple references to the Néstor Kirchner administration (2003-2007) that followed the 2001 crisis as his template, I think we can take the following as the leading two planks of the next government’s attempt to deal with the dire situation it will inherit.

Debt write-off

The first is a large debt write-off. The first Néstor administration got the private sector to take a haircut of about 65% on outstanding bonds.

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