With infrastructure ambitions on this scale, it is inevitable that some of the capital will be misspent. As McKinsey Asia-Pacific chairman Kevin Sneader observed in a recent podcast: “There is a real risk that this becomes a source of funding that gets mis-deployed and doesn’t end up contributing to greater trade or greater economic collaboration, but just gets wasted on projects that really should never have been funded in the first place.”
In this respect China would do well to look
at Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in Sri Lanka as a reminder of
what not to do.
The airport has a lot going for it: long
runways, decent facilities, trained staff. There is just one thing it is
Even on a good day fewer than 100 of them
pass through; on a bad day, it has no one at all. At the time of
writing, it was served by just one international airline, FlyDubai, and a
domestic carrier called Cinnamon Air flying to Colombo.
in southeast Sri Lanka, is a long way from China, but still represents a
cautionary tale for the Chinese because Export-Import Bank of China put
in $190 million of the total $209 million cost (some sources say $247
million out of $272 million – either way, the lion’s share). China was
backing then-president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s vision to transform Sri
Lanka’s Hambantota district (a port and a cricket stadium followed in
the same area, both with Rajapaksa in their name), which happens to be
where Rajapaksa is from.
One assumes Eximbank’s due diligence
unearthed the fact that Hambantota is a rural region with a poor
population of 23,000, so China must have had other reasons for investing
in it. Although the project predates Belt and Road (it opened in March
2013), one has to assume it was linked to the broader idea of Chinese
regional trade and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, the sea-borne
arm of Belt and Road.
China was not responsible for the fact
that the seven routes per day that operated through the airport in March
2013, Beijing and Shanghai among them, were swiftly axed. Nor could
they perhaps have realized that Sri Lanka’s change of government to
Maithripala Sirisena, in 2015, would lead to a backlash against
China-backed projects like this and to Sri Lankan Airlines being given
permission to cancel flights to Mattala and close its hub there.
the airport was only a part of a rumoured $5 billion or more in Chinese
soft lending to the Rajapaksa administration, which was surely more
politically directed than it was ever economically viable.
is something to be said for the ‘if you build it, they will come’ model
of infrastructure development; much of Mahathir-era Malaysia was built
this way. But it has not worked at Mattala, where elephants have been
known to wander into the airport grounds and where its very emptiness
has made it a tourist attraction in its own right – increasingly, the
only reason anyone goes there.