The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site.

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2020 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.
Opinion

Expect delayed recovery not disaster

The US economic recovery will be delayed by the terrorist attacks of 11 September and anthrax scares. But in the wake of the US administration's massive monetary and fiscal policy boost since that tragic day, a V-shaped recovery in 2002 is now likely.


Before September, the US economic slowdown was, to a large degree, simply an inventory liquidation exercise, as corporate America responded to more normal post-bubble demand conditions. That adjustment was close to completion before the terrorists struck. Manufacturing was starting to turn around. Leading indicators had been improving for several months in a row. And consumer spending was being sustained.


But now the consumer will be less confident and thus less willing to spend, and unemployment has started to rise much more quickly as several sectors (airlines, leisure and insurance) accelerate lay-offs. This could undermine aggregate incomes.


       

View graph.


But it's not all bad.




You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.

SUBSCRIBE ONLINE TODAY

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually

FREE 7 DAY TRIAL

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors

LOGIN NOW

Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree