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Banking

That's enough crises

Is it a correction rather than a crisis? Perhaps, but consider this sobering list of 31 crises, prepared by Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital. His conclusion? "A western equity market crash will complete this litany of disasters ... since [equities] are mispriced by most yardsticks and since their fundamentals are daily worsening."

  • A pan-Asian domestic banking crisis

  • A pan-Asian economic slump

  • A yen crisis

  • A renminbi/HK dollar crisis

  • An international bank lending crisis centred on Asia

  • An ongoing collapse in all Asian equity markets

  • A Japanese bank equity crash

  • A collapse in Antipodean currency values

  • A Canadian dollar collapse

  • A complete (bar 15 to 20 cents on the dollar) Russian default

  • A total collapse in the rouble

  • A political crisis in Russia

  • A sharp sell-off in east European bonds and currencies

  • A sharp sell-off in Greek bonds and currency

  • An explosion in swap/government spreads

  • An explosion in corporate/government spreads

  • A delivery squeeze in the Bund

  • A Scandinavian currency crisis

  • A sharp rise in Scandinavian yields and rates

  • A South African currency and bond collapse

  • A Latin American bond collapse

  • A probable Latin American recession

  • A Latin currency crisis

  • A crash in commodity prices

  • A crash in basic-goods prices

  • An unprecedented rise in all developed-nation financing costs

  • A collateral/repo market crisis

  • A potential financial industry crisis driven by all of the above

  • A possible resignation of the US president

  • A probable/possible removal of Kohl in Germany

  • A completely inevitable removal of the present Japanese government...

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