"In the future, 2013 will be seen as a turning point in the cycle that followed that of 2008," says Alexandre Gartner, HSBCs investment director of private banking in Brazil. "Ever since we went into the crisis, the whole world has been in a single mode of monetary easing and the relative outperformance of emerging markets to developed markets. In the second half of last year the markets departed from this reality and the reversion of this monetary stimulus will have a very significant effect on how people perceive their investments. The [investment] stories that worked in the past few years wont necessarily work in the future. Geographies will change at different speeds and will have an important effect [on investment portfolios]. And in 2013 especially the second half investors woke up and began to try to get more exposed to global products and opportunities."
Regardless of the accuracy of Gartners prediction about how economic historians will view 2013, geographical diversification took a grip in the psyches of Brazilian private banking clients last year. Not since 2002 when left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won power has the industry experienced such momentum in money being sent offshore (although since 2002 the CVM regulations have enabled Brazilians to get exposure to international assets and currencies through onshore vehicles).
|Marco Abrahão, head of Credit Suisse Hedging-Griffo Private Banking in São Paulo|
Domestic staple asset classes also performed badly, many for the first time in a long while. Real rates products (floating, inflation-linked notes) gave back a lot of their outperformance generated in recent years in 2013. Real estate had a tough year; real estate investment trusts performing particularly badly. Equities again had a poor year and while there was an amazing performance from many active managers during this time many matching CDI with absolute return, which is impressive alpha generation in a falling market in general the multimarcados had an average year at best. Challenging domestic returns looked even worse when considering the exchange rate impact.
Renato Cohn, partner and co-head of wealth management at BTG Pactual, reinforces the theme. "For a very long period here in Brazil, as the local economy was growing much faster than the developed markets, most of the money stayed here," he says. "We had a strong real and the whole market was very profitable during 2013. It was a year of a lot of changes: the currency came from R$1.70 to R$2 [to the US dollar] in 2012 and in 2013 from R$2 to R$2.40. The depreciation was very fast, and not many clients took advantage of that, but if you look at the longer-term diversification in terms of assets, it makes sense we think. We will have a much more balanced world in terms of growth, and we have been recommending clients to look at regional diversification in asset allocation not because of the currency but because of [the likely benefits of] a balanced portfolio."
But if Brazils rich have finally bought into the need to diversify into foreign assets and currencies, the execution still needs work. João Albino Winkelmann, the head of Bradesco Private Bank, says that last year was a record one for sending money abroad: "We hadnt seen that kind of movement since 2002 when Lula was elected and a lot of Brazilians got scared," he says, although he adds that 2002s flows were substantially larger than those witnessed in 2013. "We have to learn that global diversification is a part of life and do it on an ongoing basis. Brazilians still send money abroad only when they are scared and when they see turmoil or when they feel there is political or economic instability. Thats when they think they should have 10%, 15% or even 20% of their portfolio in hard currency and they dont care about the exchange rate. In fact, they like [buying] expensive dollars, and then when the dollar falls a bit they relax and only react when the currency goes back up."
|Alexandre Gartner, HSBCs investment director of private banking in Brazil|
If geographical diversification is a revolutionary new rule of investment for private banking clients in Brazil then the appetite for active management is becoming almost as widely accepted, albeit having evolved more gradually. Sylvio Castro, co-chief investment officer of Credit Suisse Hedging-Griffo Private Banking, points to both themes.
"We believe a global equity diversification strategy [rather than focusing on the US] gives our clients more flexibility," he says. "We are not going to purely beta plays, we prefer active managers. We give those managers the flexibility to be in the currency and country that they think has the better alpha potential."
CSHG also prefers active managers in the local markets, many of them long-bias managers who managed to book strong returns in a falling market.
"Its amazing how the managers in our platform performed in the past year no one could have expected it in such a poor environment for equities," says Castro. "But what I can tell you is that when we talk to the managers we see mixed feelings. On one hand they continue to be confident in finding interesting stories and with all this downtrend [in equity valuations] they continue to see some opportunities popping up. But at the same time from a beta perspective those guys have never had so much cash." And despite the falls in Brazilian equity valuations and price to future earnings multiples, Castro thinks the asset class doesnt offer value: "You have to bear in mind that there is a strong downward trend in ROE and earnings growth," he says. "We still see price to forward earnings and price to book at reasonably expensive levels and so we continue to stay on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point in the local market." International valuation offers value, according to Castro, not least because "the real still needs to devalue to cope with some of the loss of productivity we have seen in Brazil in the last few years."
Domestic fixed income continues to be strong. When the Selic hit 7.25% with inflation over 6%, the total return after tax was close to zero. That prompted clients to move away from CDI-type investments and increase tenor and duration. Clients started buying corporate paper albeit very high-quality paper with name recognition. Tax-free investments, such as those linked to agriculture (CRAs) and real estate (CRIs) continue to be popular, and now infrastructure-backed paper is finding demand. Recent deals from Vale and Petrobras, which have issued inflation (IPCA) plus 6% to 6.5% coupons offer value to all those who expect Selic to peak soon (currently at 10.5%).
"These are tax free and have very good credit risk so we have been advising clients to use these opportunities to diversify their fixed-income portfolios," says Charles Ferraz, chief investment officer at Itaú Unibancos wealth management group. Its not always easy though to get clients that have been almost exclusively used to sovereign or quasi-sovereign credit risk to begin to diversify into corporate debentures even when the private banker recommends that the reward is an excellent return for the risk. "Our experience shows that even when you have a very good risk-adjusted return, if you have a [company] name that is unfamiliar the client tends not to buy them."
And how do clients go about pricing liquidity risk for these new longer-tenor instruments in a market with little secondary trading?
"Investors tend not to price liquidity risk," says Ferraz. "Thats something that when we analyse an investment we always take into account even when the client is proposing to buy to keep to maturity but usually a client doesnt price this and sometimes the market goes for a particular deal when it pays nothing on liquidity risk."