Country risk: Risk keeps rising in 2012
The eurozone is leading most areas of the world in declining ECR scores, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey. The rise in risk is not as steep as in 2011, but it is a source of anxiety for ECR’s 400 experts.
The world has become a riskier place. Of all the main economic or geographical areas, all except Australasia and the Caribbean have experienced increased risk so far this year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey. Noteworthy deterioration in economists’ sentiment has been recorded not only in Europe, but also in Africa, central and eastern Europe and the Middle East, as concerns over the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis have further dampened global economic growth and cast a shadow over private-sector and public-sector balance sheets. Country risk scores for north America, Latin America and Asia have also been affected by this gloomy outlook, although to a lesser extent.
Even the Bric countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) – the world’s emerging economic powerhouses – have suffered declining ECR scores in 2012, as concerns over their export markets and increased domestic security risks have tempered analysts’ optimism.
In total, 108 of the 186 countries in the survey have become riskier, with just 56 becoming safer. The trend indicates that analysts are increasingly nervous about the health of the global economy, even after a summer in which trading in global debt and equity markets has been less frenetic than in recent years.