Decoding China’s FX guessing game

Previous changes of policy direction have left analysts undecided on whether to attribute recent sharp corrections to the renminbi reference rate to accident or design – or even a combination of the two.

Trying to second-guess China’s policymakers is usually futile, so no one should have been surprised when the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) raised its USD/CNY fixing on March 22 by the largest amount since the start of the year.

The move enabled USD/CNY to trade through 7.20 for the first time since November 2023 and led to speculation that China’s central bank could move towards a managed depreciation regime, where the daily fixing is increased slowly, but at a pace dictated by the upper bound of its 2% trading range.

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