“If you bet on Brazilian macro you will lose. Because there is only one certainty about the Brazilian market – we always disappoint. And even if I lower your expectations, we’re still going to disappoint because it’s a very complicated country of high interest rates and low growth.”
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BR Partners’ founder and chief executive, Ricardo Lacerda doesn’t mince his words when explaining why his niche investment bank eschewed a big international IPO roadshow when the company listed on the B3 in June this year.
Lacerda was speaking to Euromoney on October 18 – days before the latest financial turmoil in Brazil set in.
The country’s flirtation with financial chaos changes just a little every cycle, but the ingredients are the same: political dysfunction leads to fiscal mismanagement and overreliance on monetary policy. On October 21 four key members of the economics ministry quit, joining the growing number of market participants who realize that economic minister Paulo Guedes’ commitment to the country’s spending cap is far less resolute than his desire to cling on to power and remain part of the failing government.
