|A bum wrap|
||Notional CDS bought from monolines 03 –2008
||$538mln (Q4 2007) and $800mln (Q1 2008)|
||$1.5bln (Q1 2008)|
|Source: Standard & Poor’s|
Credit default swaps: On dangerous ground
These firms have lurched from one downgrade to another as the implications emerge of their exposure not only to sub-prime ABS CDOs but more recently to guaranteed investment contract (GIC) funds. Any list of counterparties at risk of default has to include several big monoline names. "All monolines that have been significantly involved in structured credit will become effectively insolvent," is the bleak prognosis from Andrea Cicione at BNP Paribas.
What does this mean for their outstanding CDS? Most of...