The material on this site is for financial institutions, professional investors and their professional advisers. It is for information only. Please read our Terms & Conditions, Privacy Policy and Cookies before using this site.

All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws. © 2021 Euromoney, a part of the Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC.
Opinion

These are the eurozone’s next big bank mergers

Stock market ups and downs over the last two years reveal a new line-up of possible big bank buyers in the eurozone. If they wait for balance sheet clean-ups and government sell-downs, they may have to up their bids.

don_banner_column-780

M&A is the most radical of a chief executive’s choices. A strategic control graph – with bigger and higher-valued institutions to the top and right and smaller and cheaper institutions to the bottom left – shows the eurozone’s most likely deals. 

I last plotted a graph like this in 2015. A lot has happened since, so it is worth seeing how market gyrations have moved positions. It shows which big banks could get bigger and which could disappear.

Assessing the block’s top 20 biggest listed banks by tangible equity, stock market outperformance over the last three years suggests Santander, BBVA and Crédit Agricole SA (CASA) are all more likely acquirers than before – BBVA and CASA, at least, of possible targets further to the bottom left. 

If one adds the equity of Crédit Agricole’s unlisted regional banks, it could do bigger deals.

Partly because of their rise, BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo and Société Générale all now look relatively less likely to acquire than before. Of these, SocGen seems a particularly unlikely consolidator today, after a period of marked share price underperformance. While other banks have settled legal issues earlier, US investigations are still pending on SocGen’s role in Libor manipulation, bribery in Libya and sanctions breaching.


You have reached premium content. Please log in to continue reading.

Read beyond the headlines with Euromoney

For over 50 years, our readers have looked to Euromoney to stay informed about the issues that matter in the international banking and financial markets. Find out more about our different levels of access below.

SUBSCRIBE ONLINE TODAY

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com

Expert comment, long reads and in-depth analysis interviews with senior finance professionals

Access the results of our market-leading annual surveys across core financial services

Access the results of our annual awards, including the world-renowned Awards for Excellence

Your print copy of Euromoney magazine delivered monthly

£73.75 per month

Billed Annually

FREE 7 DAY TRIAL

Unlimited access to Euromoney.com and Asiamoney.com, including our top stories, long reads, expert analysis, and the results of our annual surveys and awards

Sign up to any of our newsletters, curated by our editors

LOGIN NOW

Already a user?

We use cookies to provide a personalized site experience.
By continuing to use & browse the site you agree to our Privacy Policy.
I agree